|
|
|
|
Retail Deep Dive: In 2024: Three Issues That Will Define Commerce, I highlighted a critical intersection where three major influences: cybersecurity, shipping vulnerabilities, and geopolitical concerns —were poised to impact the global retail landscape. The analysis ended, “The flow of commerce faces further disruption.” This essay delves into what that could look like and why.
Let’s fast forward to mid-2024, these predictions have not only materialized but have also evolved, presenting an even more complex challenge for global commerce. This update revisits those projections in light of new data and insights.
In my December 2023 analysis, I covered the emerging intersection of national security and commerce, specifically in light of shipping concerns. The geopolitical tensions in the Suez Canal Zone were converging to create a multifaceted challenge for retailers. This convergence underscored the need for a strategic approach to safeguarding both national and corporate interests while maintaining a thriving global economy.
Continue Reading: Shipping Matters
|
|
|
DTC Brands / Public Eye: Two years after our pioneering investigation into Shein's southern Chinese manufacturing plants, a follow-up investigation highlights what the online fashion giant's sustainability rhetoric is worth. Illegal working hours and piecework wages remain a typical feature of the everyday lives of the workers interviewed. Hence the doubt that is cast over a factory audit commissioned by Shein.
XIEMU (She-Muh...get it?): The funny (and powerful) SNL skit that led to a dozen media articles.
|
|
|
Excerpt / Logistics: "Like many shippers, Lulus saw fuel surcharges and other shipping fees imposed by carriers pressure its financial performance in 2022 and 2023. To mitigate the heightened costs and potential service issues, the brand began expanding its outbound delivery partner network."
|
|
|
Excerpt / CNBC: “Brands are cautiously optimistic about the critical holiday season but are hedging their bets by bringing product in earlier and balancing their shipping between the East Coast and West Coast amid ongoing crises and fears of future crises,” said Nate Herman, senior v.p. of policy at the American Apparel and Footwear Association.
|
|
|
Excerpt / The Guardian: The Suez Canal, through which 12% of global trade used to pass, saw traffic drop by 66% at the start of April, when compared with a year earlier.
Many shipping firms are now diverting vessels on to the safer, but much longer and more costly, route around the tip of southern Africa, passing the Cape of Good Hope. This can add 10 days to a journey and increase fuel costs by 40%.
|
|
|
Excerpt 😮 / CNBC: Many logistics experts had forecast sufficient container and vessel capacity after a global freight recession to handle the supply chain issues, from the Red Sea to a drought-ridden Panama Canal. But Goetz Alebrand, head of Ocean Freight Americas for DHL Global Forwarding, tells CNBC that vessel space on many trade lanes is insufficient to meet market demand.
|
|
|
Fintech / Excerpt: Generation Z shoppers appear to be especially eager to make their next credit card a co-branded credit or store card, with 41% saying they will most likely apply for one of the two card types. That enthusiasm is mirrored by consumers who earn more than $100,000 annually, as 41% said they will likely apply for a co-branded or store card next.
April 3rd on branded credit: "The integration of a unified loyalty system, particularly in partnership with a company like Tandym, could further amplify this impact. By harmonizing the customer experience across both digital and physical channels, Solo Brands can create a seamless journey for its consumers." (Read More)
|
|
|
Fintech / Excerpt: Ampla, which lent money to smaller businesses that sold clothing, home furnishings and other items directly to consumers, is struggling financially and seeking a buyer.
May 10th on Ampla: "In addition to this particular blog from Paperstack, I’ve personally received similar messages a few of Ampla’s other competitors, each presenting their services as stable, long-term financial solutions. Other publications and smaller consultancies have reported similar activity. These interactions tell a tale." (Read More)
|
|
Latest Update (5/15), presented by Bold Metrics. All brands are updated with the secondary interest poll. The eighth update of 2024 sees some major movers:
|
|
|
A. DTC Brands / Fast Company: Not everyone thinks the collaborative logo from Loewe and On is effective. “It makes the anagram kind of illegible, and it’s two logos that have a very different look and feel to them,” says Joanne Chan, global CEO of Turner Duckworth. “I prefer to see collaborations where there isn’t sort of a compromise.”
|
|
|
B. DTC Brands / BOF: The BoF Brand Magic Index is packed with insights for luxury managers, plus Imran Amed decodes the success of Miu Miu and examines how to get Gucci back on track.
Note: Loewe is one of the 14 brands featured as "magical."
|
|
|
A. An Agonist Antagonist / AdAge: While summer is a prime time for ice cream brands, higher ingredient costs and price-sensitive consumers pose a marketing challenge this season. And conditions could get worse in coming years with GLP-1 weight-loss drugs altering consumption habits.
|
|
|
B. Wellness Industry / Optimizer: In the early 1970’s Jens Juul Holst noticed something. The University of Copenhagen professor realized that directly following intestinal surgery, patients’ levels of insulin rose while blood sugar levels fell. Over time, he came to find that these changes were due to gut hormones like Glucagon — the “G” in GLP-1.
|
|
|
Omnichannel / Excerpt: Companies like Nike, Levi's and PVH, which have been on years-long journeys to ramp up their direct businesses amid ongoing challenges in wholesale, provide case studies for how to invest in the selling channel.
|
|
|
Subject: The shift from streaming back to consolidated streaming packages has been bubbling for a few years now. Cable television's old guard, Comcast and others, are getting into the game to reduce the rising costs of streaming video on demand (SVOD).
This explains in 1,200 words 🔐: Few trends are as interesting as the ones projected with striking accuracy years before they fully materialize. If you read the following essays: “Consolidation and Cable” (2019) and “Streaming The Golden Age of Cable” (2023) you were introduced to the early signs of a transformation that would reshape the streaming landscape. As we stand in 2024, it is evident that many of these insights have come to fruition.
In 2019’s Cable and Consolidation, I foresaw the inevitable clash between streaming services and traditional cable providers. I noted how streaming was initially celebrated for liberating viewers from the constraints of cable packages, offering a la carte viewing experiences. However, I also recognized the looming challenge of fragmentation. I highlighted how the growing number of services and subscriptions would eventually lead to consumer fatigue.
My 2023’s Streaming The Golden Age of Cable, I expanded on this theme, capturing the shift from fragmentation to consolidation. I accurately predicted the resurgence of bundled services as a remedy for the overwhelming number of individual subscriptions. I anticipated that industry giants would merge their offerings to create more cohesive and user-friendly packages, much like the traditional cable model. My analysis of the nostalgia-driven demand for simpler times further cemented the idea that consumers would gravitate back towards a more consolidated form of content delivery. With the industry set to grow by another $110 billion in sales over the next five years, there is a race to the bottom to capture the maximal number of customers.
Continue @ 2PM
|
|
|
eCommerce / Fortune: But seemingly overnight, the Chinese e-commerce site, along with another fast-growing competitor Shein, became so popular with American consumers that it spiked prices for fast shipping by airplane from China, creating a cargo crunch that’s altering global trade routes for an air freight industry scrambling to keep up.
|
|
|
The Executive Membership supports 2PM
We thank you for reading it.
Copyright © 2024. 2PM, LLC. All rights reserved.
High Street, Columbus, Ohio · USA
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
