Over the weekend, Politico published a somewhat depressing story (what else is new!) about Democratic efforts to sell the Biden economy. The reporting centered around the growing sense of defeatism among Democrats and their inability to change sour perceptions of the economy before the election.

Across a year of concerted campaigning, voters’ sour view of the economy has barely budged. Biden remains deep underwater with an electorate skeptical of his record and still anxious, against all evidence, that a recession is around the corner.

“The big problem is the pain points are things they feel every week, every month, every day,” conceded one Biden adviser who was granted anonymity to express the internal sense of dismay. “Is that fixable? It’s unclear.”

We are five months out from the election. Earlier this year, there was some optimism that public  perception of the economy would improve by the fall and Biden and the Democrats would be running with wind at their backs. While inflation has come down and the recent spike in gas prices has largely abated, prices remain higher than when Biden took office. At this point, it seems unlikely there will be a dramatic shift in how people view the economy before they start voting. And not much can be done to make such a shift happen.

Regardless, Dems should not concede to the idea that the economy is a failure. Democrats must continue to tell the story of the Biden economy — especially with the currently undecided Biden 2020 voters, most of whom cite the economy as their top issue and incorrectly believe Biden has done very little. A few weeks ago, I offered some thoughts on how Democrats could do that.

However, it’s time we shift our focus from how the economy is right now to how it will be if Trump wins. It’s time to define Trump’s economic agenda.

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Lower Taxes, Higher Prices

Donald Trump doesn’t really talk “policy.” He prefers the rollicking tales of grievance that get his rally-going supporters fired up. The absence of policy is deliberate, and not just because he has the intellectual curiosity of a shoe horn and the attention span of a fruit fly. It’s a strategic move — his agenda is unpopular and he wants the focus to be on Joe Biden. Trump can win a referendum on Biden, but a choice between two candidates is a much taller order.

Over the weekend, two stories shed some critical light on Trump’s economic agenda.

First, the New York Times looked at the core elements of Trump’s economic agenda — renewing the tax cuts passed in his first term, a mass deportation effort, and a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports — and concluded that:

Mr. Trump has offered little explanation about how his plans would lower prices. And several of his policies — whatever their merits on other grounds — would instead put new upward pressure on prices, according to interviews with half a dozen economists… As a matter of textbook economics, each of those three signature Trump policy plans would be likely to raise prices. Some could even cause continued, rather than one-time, price increases — adding to the possibility of inflation.

The inflationary impacts of tax cuts and changes in immigration policy may be challenging to explain to voters. However, there is a very easy way to talk about the tariffs. A study from the Center for American Progress found that:

The proposed across-the-board tariff would amount to a roughly $1,500 annual tax increase for the typical household, including a $90 tax increase on food, a $90 tax increase on prescription drugs, and a $120 tax increase on oil and petroleum products. This tax increase would drive up the price of goods while failing to significantly boost U.S. manufacturing and jobs.

In other words, one of Trump’s first moves — one that doesn't require Congress action — would cost your family $1500.

Second, the Washington Post reported that, in addition to renewing the Trump tax cuts that overwhelmingly benefited the wealthy and expire at the end of next year, Trump’s advisers are considering even lower rates and more breaks for the wealthy and corporations.

To pay for these tax cuts, Republicans plan to cut Social Security and Medicare and repeal the Affordable Care Act.

The Urgency of Defining Trump’s Economic Agenda

This election is not complicated.

Voters overwhelmingly say that the economy/inflation is their top issue. More than 75% of them say the economy is bad and they trust Trump more on economic issues by margins as large as 20 points. To be reelected, Biden doesn't need to win on the economy, but he can’t lose by 20 points.

Therefore, there is tremendous urgency in taking the economy fight to Trump. The best political attacks do two things: erode the opponent’s strengths and exacerbate their weaknesses. A message that makes Trump the candidate of higher prices and tax breaks for the rich checks both boxes.

Voters see Trump as better able to lower prices. A poll from the Cook Political Report found that:

78% think it’s likely inflation will continue to be an issue during a second Biden term, and only 40% think he would be able to bring down the cost of goods. Voters are much more optimistic about Trump’s ability to bring down prices, with 56% saying that they think that Trump will be able to get the cost of living under control if he were elected to a second term.

Eroding that advantage is essential for any victory plan. Similarly, tax cuts for the rich are Trump’s Achilles’ heel. He is a rich guy who likes to help other rich guys and his only legislative achievement of consequence is a phenomenally unpopular and unsuccessful tax cut bill that ballooned the deficit and paid for bonuses for CEOs and other executives. A poll from Blueprint found that more tax cuts for the rich is one of the top concerns about Trump among working-class and non-college-educated voters.

There you have it — the Trump economic agenda: High prices for you and lower taxes for the wealthy and corporations. It’s simple, easy to remember, and is consistent with how people view Trump and Republicans.

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