Aziz Sunderji - The Week in Review
Welcome back to The Week in Review. I hope you had a good one. There is an oppressive ‘heat dome’ over New York City—but from a work perspective that might have been a good thing. Without the option to be outside, I buckled down and finally published an analysis I had been tinkering with for weeks, about the relationship between school performance and home prices (here, ◎). The TLDR is that, if you want your kid to go to a top-notch public elementary school in New York City, you either have to live in a pretty expensive area, or move to the fringes of the the city’s outer boroughs. There are a couple of exceptions though—you can see the full analysis here ◎. Turning to the week ahead, it’s another fairly busy one for housing-related economic data.
Subscribers can download the housing economic data calendar here ◉. Articles with a ◎ are free. Those with a ◉ have free previews but are only accessible in full for paying subscribers. Upgrade your subscription here: News: Homebuilder sentiment dips Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 43 in June, down two points from May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the lowest reading since December 2023. From the NAHB:
Weak homebuilder sentiment is probably at least partly a function of firms sitting on a large pipeline of units under construction—will these clear at current prices when they come to market? Builders are already stepping up discounts. News: Census residential construction data was released Housing starts dropped 5.5% to 1,277k (saar) in May, against consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase and the lowest level since June 2020. This was the slowest annualized pace in four years. There are two notable macro trends. First, the single family market looks fairly normal, with permits, starts, and completions roughly in line with 2019 averages. Construction is a bit higher than 2019. Second, the multifamily construction cycle is wildly lopsided: permits and starts are far below 2019 levels, but construction and completions remain close to all-time highs, helping soften rent growth. The pipeline of total (single and multifamily) units under construction is especially large in the South: News: Existing home sales dipped From Barclays:
This is the lagged impact of higher mortgage rates. In fact, the correlation between mortgage rates and sales has been unusually strong recently. With little relief on rates, it’s not surprising sales continue to languish.
Notion. For curious minds, the internet presents a conundrum. There is too much to read and watch and play. I’ve long realized the best I can hope for is to chip away at a fraction of the most timely and interesting stuff. My solution to dealing with the resulting FOMO is to clip things for reading/watching later. Of course, I rarely get around to them. But clipping for later allows me to get on with my day without remorse. For this—and so much more—Notion is the best tool I’ve seen. Notion, here ◎. Hacks. It’s hard to find good evening TV to watch. Yes, I realize this is tough to reconcile with what I wrote above re: the deluge of content. But for pre-bedtime TV, I want something funny, smart, and not too intellectually taxing. There are so many great shows featuring dragons and spaceships, but they’re all a bit…intense. Hacks centers around an older comedian (Jean Smart) torturing/mentoring a young writer (Hannah Einbinder). It’s kind of about comedy, and surrogate mother/daughter relationships, but mostly (I think) about balancing ambition with the finitude of life. Hacks, season 3, on HBO, here ◉. Have a great week, Home Economics is a reader-supported publication. Please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support our work. Paying clients receive access to the full archive, forecasts, data sets, and exclusive in-depth analysis. This edition is free—you can forward it to colleagues who appreciate concise, data-driven housing analysis. |
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