The conventional wisdom is that for all the sturm and drang of modern campaigns, there are only five moments that truly matter. The convention speeches, the vice presidential selection and the three debates — with the debates mattering most of all. But what happens when there are two debates and one of them happens more than four months before the election?

Traditionally, the debates all happen in the final six weeks of the campaign when people are tuned into the race and casting their ballots in the many states that offer early voting.

This debate, however, is happening in June during the summer months, which are often the doldrums of the campaign as people enjoy the warmer weather and focus on ferrying their kids to various camps. Engagement with all forms of media — even during an election year — tends to drop during the summer. It’s why TV networks used to air reruns during the summer.

Amongst the chattering class, many are skeptical that this debate will matter. It’s months before an election, and our national attention span is becoming more goldfish-esque with every subsequent TikTok. However, I believe this debate's timing may make it incredibly consequential.

The race has remained stagnant for months. Yes, Biden picked up a few points in the national polls since Trump’s conviction, but the fundamental dynamics stayed the same. Most voters are unengaged, portions of Biden’s 2020 coalition have yet to coalesce, and memories of Trump’s disastrous presidency are far too distant and rose-colored.

The singular opportunity to shake up the race this far from voting is something that President Biden and his team specifically sought out. It was a high-risk strategy, but I think it was the right bet to make. The question is: what does success look like for Joe Biden tonight?

1. Beat Low Expectations

As I wrote earlier this week, Biden isn’t debating Trump; he is debating the public’s concerns about his age and vitality. Questions about the viability of an 82-year-old serving another four years in the most high-pressure job in the world are more than fair, but the specific questions around Biden are fueled by dishonest Right Wing propaganda, out-of-context clips pushed on social media by bad faith actors, and a media environment that makes it hard for non-news junkies to see the President speak.

Until the debate scheduled for September, tonight is the best opportunity for Biden to counter this image of “Sleepy Joe” and assuage concerns about his age. Being fine is good, but blowing past expectations (like in the State of the Union) is ideal. What the Biden campaign wants more than anything is a bunch of people expressing surprise at Biden’s skills on social media to drive a meta-conversation about his performance...