In 2020, Donald Trump lost because enough voters thought he had done a bad job as President. In 2024, Donald Trump’s objective failure is his greatest asset.

Seriously.

Monmouth University recently asked poll respondents if they approved of the job that Donald Trump did as President; 47% approved, which is six points higher than immediately after he left the White House.

There are several reasons for this — collective amnesia, brains broken by social media, and a yearning for the price of eggs circa 2019. This nostalgia for Trump’s presidency lures some folks back into his camp. However, there is another way Trump’s presidency is helping him in this election.

For months, Democrats have been raising alarms about the existential threat Trump poses to democracy, freedom and the rule of law. But for all the untold damage done by Trump in his four years in office, democracy survived. Trump talked a big game, but was ultimately too weak and incompetent to execute his desires to consolidate power. This is why so many shrug off Trump’s pledges to use the power of the government to go after his enemies. He didn’t do it in his first term. Why do we think he will do it in his second?

That’s a very dangerous way of thinking, but it fundamentally misunderstands how Trump, the Republican Party, and the larger political environment changed in the last few years.

The threat is very, very real.

1. Trump Tried in the First Term

Let’s be clear, Trump’s threats to jail his opponents are not idle chatter. He has the power to do that. As Adam Liptak explained in the New York Times:

Mr. Trump, if he wins the presidency again, would gain immense authority to actually carry out the kinds of legal retribution he has been promoting.

The Justice Department is part of the executive branch, and he will be its boss. He will be able to tell its officials to investigate and prosecute his rivals, and Mr. Trump, who has made no secret of his desire to purge the federal bureaucracy of those found insufficiently loyal to his agenda, will be able to fire those who refuse.

While the department has traditionally had substantial independence, that is only because presidents have granted it.

Every President has the power to do these things. However, no modern president has considered the idea other than Trump and Nixon...