Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Buffet; Jean-Louis Forain; 1884

The Clippers let Paul George walk in free agency rather than offer him an expensive fourth year on a new contract.

The Nuggets watched Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sign with the Magic in free agency.

The Warriors are in the process of losing Klay Thompson.

It’s quite clear that the new collective bargaining agreement, agreed upon in 2023 with the most strict conditions on team salary caps still phasing in, is behind much of this inaction.

The Clippers, in fact, made it plain in their statement announcing PG’s departure that the salary cap restrictions they would have faced, having already locked up Kawhi Leonard and needing to re-up James Harden (who signed for $70 million over two years), under the deal George wanted were too onerous. At least that’s what they are saying. It’s worth noting that they have been offering PG a three-year deal. The fourth year appeared to be the biggest sticking point. Cap restrictions in 2027-28 don’t seem altogether relevant to current flexibility. So this might actually have been about the NBA’s enhanced luxury tax penalties, even though Steve Ballmer is richer than multiple gods.

The Nuggets aren’t being as forthcoming with an excuse for letting KCP walk, though in recent weeks Denver-based media has been foreshadowing this would happen. Blaming the “second apron” impact on cap flexibility feels like a better excuse … except the Nuggets let a key free agent (Bruce Brown) walk last summer, did nothing to address it, fell short of the NBA Finals (not for that reason), and has now lost a bigger key free agent. The Nuggets are not suddenly in cap flexibility heaven having lost KCP: they basically cannot replace him without a trade that costs additional assets. This all allows one to reasonably conclude that the Nuggets let KCP walk to save luxury tax dollars this season and beyond.

The Warriors, like the Clippers under Ballmer, will never be confused with a cheap team. And yet, a year after locking up a very embattled Draymond Green and salary-dumping a very embattled Jordan Poole, Golden State is shrinking its payroll without improving its placement in the Western Conference. With Steph Curry still a top-10 player but the supporting cast so lacking, are the Warriors just flailing to pivot under a new(-ish) front office … or is it time to cash in on the end of 30’s career with manageable salary and tax levels?

What’s clear is that the NBA’s harder salary cap has long tentacles twisting through the league’s front offices, whether the rigidity of the rules becomes a legitimate rationale for good teams letting talent go or whether it’s a convenient excuse for teams unwilling to spend tens of millions more than their rivals. That the Clippers were willing to blame the harder cap before PG had agreed to a new deal is a signal here: this is a soft target and an easy boogeyman, in part because most fans and a good portion of the media don’t understand the intricacies, and in part because a few traditional spendthrift teams — including the Clips — can blame someone else for doing it.

That’s the irony here: the less lucrative teams have been pushing for a harder cap for decades now in an attempt to boost competitive balance, to level the playing field, to erase the natural advantages for teams owned by folks who laugh in the face of luxury taxes. Hardening the cap is to try to remove the advantages the uber-wealthy NBA team owners like Ballmer and (once upon a time) Mark Cuban enjoyed. Hardening the cap is to create a system that doesn’t allow mid-market teams to go a hundred-million over the luxury tax line to “prove” they will spend what it takes to win. Hardening the cap spreads the talent around, which depresses the demands of any single player, which leads to less dead salary on the books.

The players collectively get their share of basketball-related income either way. The average NBA salary will continue to rise as revenue increases with a new media deal. The dirty details of the salary cap determine how all that money is split between players as income and how all that money is split between teams as expense. The majority of the league’s team owners wanted the expenses to be more even and efficient. Mission accomplished.

The Clippers will likely be framed as smart for holding firm on PG given the team’s reputation for intelligence and the explanation they proactively released. I’m a bit stunned they wouldn’t budge on an All-NBA caliber performer given they don’t suddenly have tons of options to replace him. This costs them in the short term certainly, and perhaps in the long term if Kawhi checks out as a result. (Also: of their three stars that combined to vastly underperform in this postseason, the Clippers committed to Kawhi — who has played in four of L.A.’s 11 playoff games over the past two seasons — and James Harden. Wow.)

The Nuggets will likely be framed as a cheap club using the second apron as an excuse and risking waste of individual seasons with the best player alive on their roster. I think that would be a fair assessment at this point. I would consider other explanations if the Nuggets hadn’t done the exact same thing a year ago.

The Warriors have lore and legend built to the mountaintops already. Seeing Klay leave after coming back and playing a key role for a fourth championship is devastating. Seeing the Warriors crumble under the weight of their own hubris is stunning after all this time. (Let it be remembered who ended it.) That the Warriors were a target of the smaller franchises in this round of cap hardening and tax punishing is not remotely a surprise. Almost every major change to the NBA’s way of doing business among teams seems like a reaction to Kevin Durant joining the Warriors, even eight years and multiple KD teams later.

This change just might be the most impactful yet.

Philly Special

In the wee hours of Monday morning, Woj reported that Paul George will sign a 4-year max with the Sixers. This was destined once PG declined his option on Saturday, the Clippers announced they were out on Sunday and the Magic spent some space on KCP on Sunday. PG isn’t a perfect player, but he is one of the best versions of the exact type of player the Sixers need. It’d only be better if he were younger or had a cleaner injury report. But then he wouldn’t be available.

They also picked up Andre Drummond, Kelly Oubre and Eric Gordon on the (relative) cheap, and appear to have room to swing for one more decent player before settling in to give Tyrese Maxey his max contract and filling out the roster with minimum salary players and draft picks.

Philadelphia is going to be really good if Joel Embiid and Paul George are healthy. That’s it. A really high ceiling, a really big if.

You know who isn’t afraid of the new collective bargaining agreement? Daryl Morey. Love him or hate him, you have to acknowledge that he isn’t afraid.

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My Favourite Game

The most inspired signing of the offseason yet: Chris Paul on a 1-year deal to the Spurs. The Spurs simply needed competent point guard play much of the season, and really only received it from Tre Jones. San Antonio will land a long-term solution at the point eventually — Darius Garland’s name continues to circulate, but who knows who will spring free over the next year? In the meantime, CP3 will install some on-court discipline, feed Victor Wembanyama until he can’t eat any more and … not contend for a championship.

I also think this is a dark horse path for CP3 to become the next head coach of the Spurs, especially if the relationship-building with Wemby goes well. Play this season and maybe one more, retire to join Pop’s bench, take over the main job in a few years. Mark my words. (Unless they are wrong.)

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The Olympic Qualifiers Are Coming

By the time you next open this newsletter on Tuesday morning (yes, subscribers are getting a Tuesday morning newsletter this week), the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments will have begun. Here in the United States, to watch these games you’ll need a special subscription to FIBA’s streaming package called Courtside 1891. The event pass is about $20 and the annual pass which includes some other international basketball stuff is $30. These games aren’t available on Peacock (where the Olympic tournaments will be) or ESPN+ or Max (which is confusing because Courtside 1891 refers to one of their products as Max).

The tournament structure is weird. There are four separate tournaments with six teams broken into 3-team groups. Essentially, win one of your two group stage games to (probably) get into the knockouts, then win two single-elimination games to make the Olympics. (On that probably, if all three teams go 1-1 in the group stage, point differential decides the top two teams to move on.)

Here are the groups.

VALENCIA: Spain, Lebanon, Angola in Group A | Finland, Poland, Bahamas in Group B — first game (Finland vs. Bahamas) is Tuesday at 11:30 AM Eastern — with no offense to the other teams, especially our friend Jeremy Sochan’s Poland, this is setting up a Spain vs. Bahamas high-pressure game and I can’t wait

RIGA: Georgia, Philippines, Latvia in Group A | Brazil, Cameroon, Montenegro in Group B — first game (Brazil vs. Montenegro) is Tuesday at 8:30 AM Eastern — Nikola Vucevic is the biggest star in this OQT, I’m so mad they didn’t split up Slovenia and Greece!

PIRAEUS: Slovenia, New Zealand, Croatia in Group A | Egypt, Greece, Dominican Republic in Group B — first game (Egypt vs. DR) is Tuesday at 10:30 AM Eastern — Slovenia plays Croatia at 2 PM Eastern, Greece’s first game is Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern — yes, only one of Luka or Giannis will be in the Olympics — yes, this is deeply annoying for those of us that want the biggest global stars in the Olympics — no, Karl-Anthony Towns is not playing for the DR in this tournament

SAN JUAN: Mexico, Ivory Coast, Lithuania in Group A | Italy, Puerto Rico, Bahrain in Group B — first game (Italy vs. Bahrain) is Tuesday at 5:30 PM — Domantas Sabonis is one of three All-NBA players in the OQTs, show some respect — the winner of this tournament lands in Team USA’s group in the Olympics along with Serbia (?!) and South Sudan — someone dust off that Sabonis vs. Anthony Davis statistic, if you will

The finals for all four tournaments are scheduled for Sunday. Clear your calendar. The men’s Olympic tournament tips off on July 27.

In Non-Free Agency News

The Pistons hired J.B. Bickerstaff as head coach. That was a rather quick search, though Trajan Langdon has been in Detroit for a month now, so he likely had a bead on who he thought would be a good replacement for Monty Williams when he made that decision two weeks ago. In any case, Bickerstaff is constitutionally prohibited from taking a normal NBA coaching job. At least this one should be fairly low-stakes for a while.

More Free Agency

ESPN’s tracker is here. Pretty useful to keep up with the stream of news. I’m enjoying Jared Dubin’s live analysis as well.

Last Night, In Basketball

2024 NBA Free Agency: Live Analysis

Here’s how I’m once again handling free agency this year. I’ll use this space to provide quick thoughts on most (if not necessarily all) of the signings that get reported this weekend, as they come. This post will be free and unlocked. Next week or the week after, I’ll take deeper looks at some of the more impactful move…

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17 hours ago · 6 likes · Jared Dubin

I’ll share more reactions on Tuesday morning as things continue to develop.

I will say that most of the moves seems totally reasonable so far … with the exception of the Bulls’ Patrick Williams extension for five years, $90 million.

The upside is that he’s still really young (almost 23). The downside is that I don’t think he’s as good or on track to be as good as veterans getting less money like Naji Marshall ($9 million a year from the Mavericks) or Derrick Jones Jr. ($10 million a year from the Clippers). Is there really 2x worth of upside locked in Pat Will’s bones? I don’t see it. I would love to be proven wrong.

If Klay Thompson ends up with the Lakers after getting recruited by King James, will Draymond Green be extra mad that he didn’t get hard-sold last year by LeBron? I know Dray and Klay are brothers, but … those are two dudes likely to scrap a little if the Warriors and Lakers play high-stakes games, right? They are both sensitive to slights and very willing to talk trash in the right circumstances.

Be excellent to each other.