Biden's Gamble: The High-Stakes Decision to Stay in the Race
Biden's Gamble: The High-Stakes Decision to Stay in the RaceThe President is staying the course despite all of the warning signsSpeculation reached a fever pitch about President Biden’s future as the Democratic nominee over the last ten days. But something got lost in the conversation. Despite public calls from a few Democrats and private pleas delivered anonymously through the media by countless other elected officials, staying in the race was always Joe Biden’s choice and his choice alone. The Democratic Party cannot force him from the ballot. The President won the nomination fair and square. The delegates are pledged to him and must vote for him on the first ballot. Some Democrats, including Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Jim Clyburn, could march down to the White House and ask the President to step aside. However, the power dynamics between a President who controls the party machinery make such a scenario unlikely. If Biden were going to step aside, it would be of his own accord after making an honest assessment of his ability to win, his capacity to be an effective candidate, and the cost of defeat on the country and his legacy. Polls show that 3/4s of the country think he is too old to be an effective President and nearly half of his own voters want a different nominee. Despite this, President Biden, his family, and his inner circle reportedly never seriously considered stepping aside. The President reaffirmed that decision on Monday morning in a letter to Congress, writing:
Biden then called Morning Joe for a pugnacious and energetic interview. The letter and the interview were cleverly designed to get ahead of congressional Democrats calling on Biden to cede the nomination. For long-time Biden watchers, his decision to stay was unsurprising, but it represents an amazingly risky gamble with the fate of democracy on the line. Where the Race StandsIf you take what Biden said in his ABC interview at face value, he clearly does not believe the polls and has a different — and possibly delusional — view about where the race against Trump stands. It’s important to level set about where the race is right now. Everyone must understand what is before us over the next 120 or so days. There is still time, and a lot can happen, but Biden is currently on track to lose the election. He is a historically unpopular incumbent running during high prices and a global wave of anti-incumbent sentiment. Trump is more popular and acceptable than at any point in the past nine years. His favorability is higher than Biden’s. While positive polls exist for Biden, like the Bloomberg/Morning According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump is ahead nationally by 2.2 points and in most (if not all) of the battleground. Trump has a higher favorability rating. Internal polling from OpenLabs, a Democratic polling outfit associated with the premier pro-Biden Super PAC, reports Biden down in every single battleground state and either behind or tied in the previously safe states of New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico. Trump’s presidency is viewed as more successful than Biden’s and his coalition is more united. Scariest of all, according to data from AdImpact (LINK), Biden is behind despite massively outspending Trump on the air over the last several months. Over this period, which also includes Biden’s successful State of the Union and Trump’s trial and conviction, Biden made no real gains in the race nor did his approval rating improve or concerns about his age abate. Not gaining ground while spending millions to communicate with voters and your opponents is a red flag. That spending advantage is set to come to an end very soon — a pro-Trump Super PAC just booked more than $60 million in ads to start running during the Olympics... Unlock this post for free, courtesy of Dan Pfeiffer.A subscription gets you:
|
Older messages
Biden Did The Big Interview, Now What?
Sunday, July 7, 2024
The President's ABC News interview raised more questions than it answered. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Why the Dem Panic over the Debate is Getting Worse
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
A tepid response and a series of new polls are raising fears at the highest levels of the party. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Dems Must Confront the MAGA Supreme Court
Monday, July 1, 2024
The ruling in the immunity case raises the stakes in the election. Democrats must respond in kind. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
How Dems Move Past the Bad Debate
Saturday, June 29, 2024
A race that has been incredibly steady just entered a very fluid, confusing new phase. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Thoughts on a Very Scary Debate
Friday, June 28, 2024
The President's performance in the most critical moment raised real questions about whether he can beat Trump ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
You Might Also Like
#58: Guest Post – Considering My Crushes
Wednesday, October 23, 2024
Written by Oli Lipski (AKA 'The Queer Sensualist') ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Not until next month!
Wednesday, October 23, 2024
It's July 1958 and Ennio Flaiano runs into an old film extra he's known for years. Given Rome's cinematic historico-biblico-mythological re-birth, this film extra has been shuttling from
This Gorgeous Fall Boot Trend Is Dethroning Cowboy Styles
Wednesday, October 23, 2024
Take 'em for a spin. The Zoe Report Daily The Zoe Report 10.22.2024 This Gorgeous Fall Boot Trend Is Dethroning Cowboy Styles (Fashion) This Gorgeous Fall Boot Trend Is Dethroning Cowboy Styles
The Best Thing: October 22, 2024
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
The Best Thing is our weekly discussion thread where we share the one thing that we read, listened to, watched, did, or otherwise enjoyed recent… ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
I Got Filler For My Under-Eye Bags & Here's What Happened
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
The results speak volumes. The Zoe Report Beauty The Zoe Report 10.22.2024 (Beauty) I Got Filler For My Under-Eye Bags & Here's What Happened (Standing Appointment) I Got Filler For My Under-
10 Most Common Emergencies You Should Save For
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Does Vitamin C Actually Help When You're Sick? An emergency fund is your financial safety net—it's not a question of if you'll need it, but when. Not displaying correctly? View this
Olivia Wilde's Sheer Bustier Dress Has Pockets!
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Plus, Selena Gomez exposed her bra, Hailey Bieber's new bracelet, your daily horoscope, & more. Oct. 22, 2024 Bustle Daily A split image featuring Kathryn Hahn across two years. On the left,
The Grandparents Fighting Against Book Bans
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Today in style, self, culture, and power. The Cut October 22, 2024 BOOKS The Grandparents Fighting Against Book Bans Advocacy groups like Grandparents for Truth want to lead the anti-book-censorship
Improve Your Sleep With Just One Thing
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Men's Health Shop logo FREE SHIPPING ON ORDERS $50+ View in Browser The Withings Sleep Tracking Mat, a Men's Health 2024 Sleep Award Winner Take Your Sleep to the Next Level Withings Sleep
Forget Resy, some restaurants are bringing back the reservation book
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Take your picnic to the graveyard