Good morning. Let’s basketball.

September Evening; Maurice Denis; 1891

On Friday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Jalen Brunson, the All-NBA star of the New York Knicks, accepted a 4-year extension offer worth $156 million on his first day of eligibility, which is a stunner because Brunson was instead expected to wait until next summer when he’d be eligible for a 5-year, $269 million deal. As far as I can tell, Brunson taking the extension wasn’t even considered a possibility, because no young stars take this extension. Brunson’s 2024-25 salary isn’t affected, but he essentially gave up the potential for an extra $11-13 million per season for the subsequent three years to lock in early.

The framing on this is that Brunson took the smaller deal — which is still technically a max contract for the guard, since that’s what he is eligible for this summer — to help the Knicks’ roster flexibility in his quest to win a championship in New York. That appears to be true. The other motivation would be risk aversion: take the contract now in case major injury or suddenly lowered productivity leads to the Knicks not extending a max deal next summer. Brunson has been rather resilient in his NBA career so far, but catastrophic injuries aren’t necessarily tied to historic availability. That said, Brunson is 27, and even the worst NBA injuries cost only about one year. We have lots of history of seriously injured players getting huge contracts to lock in expected future production. Brunson would still get a massive deal next summer even if he didn’t play a possession this coming year.

The reaction to Brunson’s decision has been all over the place. Obviously, Knicks fans are ecstatic about this turn of events. The addition of Mikal Bridges via trade last month came at the future cost of salary cap flexibility, once Bridges is eligible for a new deal and with the expectation of massive pay increases for Brunson. Brunson taking a smaller deal helps quell that concern and could allow the Knicks to manuever for more help whether Julius Randle is a part of the team’s future or not.

Another reaction has been one that predicts a domino effect of other stars taking smaller deals to assist in team-building or meet other personal criteria (winning, geography, playing with friends) based on the cartoonishly high salaries now on offer. After all, if the “low” offer is $39 million per season and the high offer is $52 million per season, is the potential to win a ring and keep your college buddies on the roster worth the difference?

Here’s my take: for 99% of NBA stars, the answer is no. ...