Friday Briefing: The ‘roller coaster’ U.S. presidential race

July 19, 2024

	By Daniel E. Slotnik

Good morning. We’re covering the U.S. presidential race at a crossroads and the security failures that led to the assassination attempt against Donald Trump.

Plus, combating gender violence in Spain with software.

Former President Donald Trump’s face appears on the video board above the crowded arena where the Republican National Convention is being held.

Donald Trump will address the final day of the Republican convention. Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

The ‘roller coaster’ presidential race

The U.S. presidential race has reached a pivotal moment. Donald Trump is poised to formally accept the Republican presidential nomination in an arena packed with supporters, less than a week after he survived an assassination attempt. His opponent, President Biden, is recovering from Covid-19 at his beach house as calls for him to drop out grow louder.

For some insight, I spoke with my colleague Jess Bidgood, who writes our On Politics newsletter and is at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Dan: It’s been a wild ride this week. Where do you think the race stands now?

Jess: Up until Biden’s bad debate performance about three weeks ago, it was a fairly steady race between two familiar candidates.

Now, after weeks of Democrats wringing their hands and an assassination attempt against Trump, I think American voters suddenly feel like they’re on a roller coaster.

What’s happening to Biden’s campaign?

Biden is attempting to draw a contrast between himself and Trump. But as much as Biden is trying to make this race about Trump, he’s almost running against his party’s increasingly negative perception of him, and that is a really difficult position.

President Biden at a podium, wearing a dark suit and tie.

The crisis engulfing President Biden’s re-election campaign has intensified. Eric Lee/The New York Times

Can he do anything to recover? What would happen if he dropped out?

Biden has sought to demonstrate his fitness with campaign events, interviews and a news conference, but he hasn’t been able to tamp down his party’s concerns.

In 2020, the reason the Democrats picked Biden was because they saw him as electable; they saw him as somebody who could beat Trump. As he slips behind Trump in the states he needs to win, that electability argument has seemingly vanished.

There has been a lot of speculation in recent weeks about which Democrats might be interested in stepping into Biden’s place. The most straightforward option is Vice President Kamala Harris, but there is also a pretty deep bench of talented Democratic governors.

I think a lot of those governors have their eyes on 2028, though, and it’s not clear to me how many of them would want to jump into this now, particularly when it could lead to a messy fight.

What’s the mood at the Republican convention?

Republicans feel like everything is going their way. There has been a lot of talk about unity, but it sometimes seems to be more about unity among Republicans than it does about building unity in the nation as a whole.

I spoke to a delegate who was attending his 12th convention here. He said to me that the Republican Party has not felt this confident since 1980, which is the year that Ronald Reagan won in a landslide.

Follow our live coverage of the campaign.

Mr. Trump pointing in front of him as he walks on a red carpet at an outdoor rally with a crowd behind him and security detail nearby.

Donald Trump was allowed to take the stage despite reports of a suspicious person in the vicinity. Doug Mills/The New York Times

Before an assassination attempt, several security lapses

About an hour before Donald Trump took the stage at a rally in Butler, Pa., on Saturday, police officers spotted a young man acting oddly. They notified the Secret Service but lost track of him. Not long after, he scaled a rooftop, opened fire at Trump and left one person dead.

The Secret Service did not stop Trump from taking the stage, and now the agency is facing intense criticism. It is also under scrutiny for excluding a building within rifle range from its secure perimeter, creating a blind spot close to the former president that the gunman exploited.

The F.B.I. said that the gunman had searched for information on Trump, Biden and other prominent officials before the attack. No clear motive has emerged.

Watch our visual investigation on how law enforcement failed to protect Trump.

Aerial view of fields of solar panels stretching to the horizon.

A solar farm in China. Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

The era of soaring Chinese emissions might be ending

China, the world’s biggest source of planet-warming greenhouse gases for most of the past two decades, appears to be on the verge of plateauing its emissions. The biggest factor: Renewable sources of electricity are replacing coal, the most polluting fossil fuel.

MORE TOP NEWS

A couple who filed a lawsuit in 2021 after their spousal benefits were cancelled celebrated after the court decision. Reuters

South Korea: The Supreme Court ruled that same-sex couples qualify for the national health insurance’s dependent coverage. Activists hope that the legalization of same-sex marriage will follow.
E.U.: Ursula von der Leyen secured a second five-year term as president of the European Commission, the union’s executive branch.
Ukraine: The military said that it had lost a hard-won position on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, near the southern city of Kherson.
Israel: After a landmark Supreme Court decision, the military will begin sending initial conscription orders to ultra-Orthodox men on Sunday.
Japan: Five people died on Mount Fuji in one week, an unusually deadly start to the climbing season.
Bangladesh: Seventeen people have been killed during protests over a quota system used to fill coveted civil service jobs.
Venezuela: The presidential election is in 10 days. A third of residents said they would leave the country if Nicolás Maduro, its authoritarian leader, won again.
France: In a test of the country’s new balance of power, French lawmakers started casting ballots to elect the president of the National Assembly.
Russia: Closing arguments in the trial of the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich on charges of espionage are scheduled for today.

Sports

A female football player wearing an orange t-shirt that reads 'MIDLAND' carries a football in her left hand while rushing past a defensive player.

Midland University’s JaNasia Spand rushes during a flag football game in 2021. Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Flag football: The sport has grown in popularity across the U.S., especially among women. In 2028 it will debut at the Olympics.

Golf: Here’s everything you need to know from the first day of the Open Championship at Royal Troon.
Soccer: Hwang Ui-jo, a South Korean soccer star, was charged in Seoul with filming sexual encounters without permission.

MORNING READ

Luz and her son hug each other, with a stone wall behind them.

Ana María Arévalo Gosen for The New York Times

The Spanish police have been depending on VioGén, an algorithm, to predict how likely a domestic violence victim is to be abused again and suggest what protection to provide. Overall, it has reduced the number of repeat attacks. But sometimes the risk levels are miscalculated, and the consequences can be fatal.

Lives lived: Bob Newhart, a comedy star on two of American television’s most memorable sitcoms, died at 94.

CONVERSATION STARTERS

Telling Hawaii’s stories: Leleo Kinimaka pours his native knowledge and passion into one-of-a-kind surfboards that double as works of art.
Life finds a way: The birth of 60 wild Siamese crocodiles in Cambodia last month was all very “Jurassic Park.” Watch them emerge.
One of England’s best: At 5, she picked up chess as a pandemic hobby. Now she’s a 9-year-old prodigy.

We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times .

ARTS AND IDEAS

Donald Glover wearing brown glasses and a ball cap with a picture of an orange on it, rests his head on one hand and looks at the camera.

Ashley McLean for The New York Times

Donald Glover bids farewell to Childish Gambino

Childish Gambino, the hip-hop alter ego of Donald Glover, has been in the public eye long enough to be in high school. After a slew of albums and five Grammys, Glover has decided it’s time to say goodbye to the pseudonym.

But there will be a curtain call: the album “Bando Stone & the New World,” released today. Here’s more on this farewell project.

RECOMMENDATIONS

A bowl of blueberry cake with a scoop of ice cream.

Julia Gartland for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Samantha Seneviratne.

Bake: This blueberry spoon cake pours blueberry juice on top of a gluten-free cornmeal batter.

Watch: “Twisters,” a sequel to the 1996 blockbuster about tornado chasers, mostly pulls off a tough challenge, our critic writes.

Read: “Women in the Valley of the Kings” introduces us to a group of 19th-century archaeologists who changed the field forever.

Exercise: This 12-minute workout will help you build your foot strength.

Play: Spelling Bee, the Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku. Find all our games here.

That’s it for today. See you tomorrow. — Dan

P.S. Our readers let us know which books were missing from our list of the 100 best books of the century so far.

Thanks to Jess Bidgood.

We welcome your feedback. Send us your suggestions at briefing@nytimes.com.

Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

You received this email because you signed up for Morning Briefing: Asia Pacific Edition from The New York Times.

To stop receiving Morning Briefing: Asia Pacific Edition, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request.

Subscribe to The Times Get The New York Times app

Connect with us on: