Being President is all about making tough decisions under immense pressure. The selection of the vice presidential nominee is the most significant decision that a presidential candidate makes. The selection gives the electorate an imperfect window into how a candidate thinks, what they value and how they plan to govern. Getting it right is table stakes. Messing it up can end your campaign.

It’s only been a week and half, but it seems like Donald Trump messed up when he picked J.D. Vance. Don’t take my word for it. No reporter is better sourced within Trump’s campaign apparatus than The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta. Here’s what he posted earlier this week:

Most striking thing I heard from Trump allies yesterday was the second-guessing of JD Vance—a selection, they acknowledged, that was borne of cockiness, meant to run up margins with the base in a blowout rather than persuade swing voters in a nail-biter.

I don’t often agree with “Trump allies,” but in this rare case, they are right to second-guess the decision. It’s been less than two weeks, but the initial signs indicate that Trump fumbled his most crucial campaign decision.

Why the Hell Did Trump Pick Vance?

I wasn’t surprised by the selection of J.D. Vance. There had been a lot of speculation that Vance was the frontrunner. In the days before the announcement, Trump conducted a revelatory interview with Fox News Radio’s Brian Kilmeade (I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence). Kilmeade asked Trump about three purported members of his VP shortlist. Trump raised concerns about North Dakota Governor Doug Burgham’s support for a law banning abortions and Marco Rubio’s residency issues. But he praised Vance’s beard. Here’s the exchange:

“Word is that you won’t pick J.D. Vance because of his facial hair. Is that true?” Kilmeade asked.

“No, I’ve never heard that one,” Trump replied, seemingly taken aback by the question. “It looks good. It looks like a young Abraham Lincoln.”

Is that weird? Absolutely, but Trump is a bizarre guy who allegedly hates beards — a fact that is almost certainly related to the gross beards his two sons grew to hide their weak chins...