Tihana Škrinjarić

How effective is macroprudential policy and how should policymakers measure its stance? My recent paper surveys the literature on the topic of Growth-at-Risk (GaR), which has been developed as a methodology to provide answers to these questions by relating the effects of macroprudential policy tools to real-economy dynamics. While the results are mixed, the consensus finds a positive impact from macroprudential policy tightening during the expansion of the financial cycle. Policy loosening reduces the potential GDP losses during contractions, with the effects being more prominent in the medium term. Several challenges within this framework still exist. Resolving these would lead to a more accurate evaluation of macroprudential policy effectiveness. Finally, I discuss GaR policy applications.