Like the right hook you swore would put up major points on the bar’s punching bag machine, US employment growth has been much weaker than previously reported, according to data released yesterday by the Labor Department.

The figures indicate that the job market has cooled so severely that it now nears a breaking point if employers don’t feel rate-cut relief soon.

Oops. The agency said it overstated employment numbers in its jobs report for the 12 months through March 2024 by 818,000, which cuts the number of jobs added in that period from a previously estimated 2.9 million to ~2 million. The revision itself is normal—the Bureau of Labor Statistics retroactively adjusts monthly employment numbers every year.

According to yesterday’s numbers, which are supposed to be more comprehensive than monthly payroll figures alone:

• The 28% downward revision is the largest adjustment issued since 2009.
• Professional and business services jobs accounted for about half of the discrepancy.
• Employment for the year through March 2024 rose 1.3% instead of the previously estimated 1.9%.

But these numbers are only preliminary and won’t be finalized until February. FWIW, Goldman Sachs analysts think the revision should be smaller.

On the bright side…markets didn’t flinch. Economists were expecting a large revision; some even braced for a revision of 1 million jobs.

But workers are feeling it...in a July survey of American workers, 4.4% said they expect to lose their jobs in the next four months—the highest rate ever recorded.

Up next: The pressure is on for Jerome Powell’s big speech in Jackson Hole tomorrow. Investors will be watching for any hints about the Fed’s next moves—especially how fast and how big interest rate cuts might be.—ML

Monogram (Nasdaq: MGRM), known for their autonomous robotic surgical systems, completed a crowdfunded public offering and Nasdaq listing last year. What’s next?

They just filed for FDA approval to market and commercialize their patented AI joint replacement tech. By the year 2027, 50% of knee replacement surgeries will be robotic—up from 12% today.

Now, Monogram’s offering a new chance for investors: the opportunity to invest in preferred stock with an 8% dividend yield (in cash or kind). Their common stock traded as high as $2.75 in the past week, but the unlisted preferred stock (which is convertible into one share of common) is available for $2.25/share.

Monogram currently plans to close the Series D Preferred offering on September 12, 2024.

Target’s discounts worked. Target pulled itself out of a sales slump, with same-store sales rising last quarter for the first time in a year after discounts on staple items helped lure shoppers back to its stores. Same-store sales went up 2%, and profit jumped 36%. It’s the latest sign that consumers are ready to spend—but only if they’re getting a bargain. Walmart and TJ Maxx also posted strong sales, while sales at higher-end stores like Macy’s and home improvement chains have sagged.

Divers recovered five bodies from UK entrepreneur’s sunken yacht. After days of searching, rescue crews found the bodies of five of the six people missing since the Bayesian sank off the coast of Sicily on Monday during a celebration of Autonomy founder Mike Lynch beating fraud charges. Authorities did not immediately identify the bodies, but Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter, as well as his lawyer, Chris Morvillo, and his friend, Morgan Stanley International Chairman Jonathan Bloomer, and their wives were all missing after the shipwreck. Fifteen other people, including Lynch’s wife, were rescued in the aftermath, and the body of the yacht’s cook was found earlier.

McDonald’s Instagram appears to have been hacked to promote a crypto scam. The burger chain was probably not lovin’ it when hackers appeared to take over its social media account to promote a memecoin named for its fuzzy purple Grimace character (the one with the shake). A screenshot passed around online purports to show the company’s bio changed to a message from the hackers saying they’d stolen $700,000 through a crypto rug-pull scam with the memecoin, whose value reportedly rapidly rose and fell. McDonald’s told the NY Post it was “aware of an isolated incident that impacted our social media accounts” that had been resolved.

Ford has come a long way since the Model T, but like many of its peers, it still hasn’t figured out how to make electric vehicles profitable. The company announced a series of changes to its money-losing EV strategy yesterday as consumers’ capricious attitudes toward plug-in cars force auto companies to rethink their plans for an electric future.

In addition to canceling the three-row SUV, Ford delayed the launch of a new electric pickup again—this time until 2027—and revealed plans to cut spending on EVs from 40% of its budget to 30%.

Why’d it step on the brakes? Ford’s EV business has been costly, and it is on pace to lose about $5.5 billion this year. Demand for fully electric cars remains tepid, while competition from cheaper (and many say better) Chinese EV companies is fierce. The change may save Ford’s balance sheet in the long run, but it’ll hurt short-term, as the delays and cancellations total nearly $2 billion in sunk costs.

Instead, Ford is pivoting. It will focus on hybrids and other electric vehicles in models that it already knows it can sell, including a new hybrid version of its popular SUV styles, an electric commercial van, and two electric pickups—one of which will be a midsize model headed up by a former Tesla exec.—CC

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Heads up to job-hoppers: A Texas federal court blocked the Federal Trade Commission’s ban on noncompete agreements, which was slated to take effect on Sept. 4 and would have impacted ~30 million American workers.

Judge Ada Brown ruled Tuesday that the FTC went beyond its authority when it voted 3–2 in April to outlaw most contracts that keep employees from defecting to rival companies or starting new competitors. In what reads as a judicial body slam to FTC Chair Lina Khan, the judge wrote, “The role of an administrative agency is to do as told by Congress, not to do what the agency think[s] it should do.”

What’s at stake? Besides how easy it is for you to actually quit your job rather than just quiet quit:

• The FTC claimed the ban would lead to higher wages and the creation of 8,500+ new businesses a year.
• Business groups like the Chamber of Commerce and employers—including Ryan LLC, the Dallas tax firm that brought the Texas suit—say noncompetes are necessary to protect companies’ intellectual property and investments in employee training.

Looking ahead…the FTC said it’s “seriously considering a potential appeal.” Congress could also step in, as lawmakers have previously introduced bipartisan bills to bar noncompetes.—AR

Your Insta feed may not be full of girls in infinity scarves yet, but one telltale sign of fall has pushed its way into August: The Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte returns today. It’s the earliest the coffee chain has rolled out its fall menu in the sweet drink’s 21-year history, per CNN. The early debut of the autumnal favorite likely comes from the same impulse that recently led Starbucks to poach Chipotle’s CEO—the company wants to juice sales after two consecutive quarters of same-store declines. About 10% percent of the chain’s sales come from seasonal items. If you’re eager to embrace the crisp fall day mindset, the new menu also includes other pumpkin- and apple-flavored options.