Here at the Democratic Convention in Chicago, speeches, videos, and chatter have centered on two words — hope and joy. On Tuesday night, Michelle and Barack Obama connected Kamala Harris to the hope that fueled their 2008 campaign. With her infectious laugh, Kamala Harris embodies joy, and her campaign has wisely embraced that notion. Doug Emhoff called Harris a joyful warrior during his excellent speech on Tuesday night.

However, another word punctuated the entire convention and Vice President Harris’s boffo speech last night — change. The passage that stuck out to me was the following:

With this election, our nation has a precious, fleeting opportunity to move past the bitterness, cynicism, and divisive battles of the past. A chance to chart a New Way Forward. Not as members of any one party or faction, but as Americans

Many factors will determine who wins the 2024 election, but perhaps not one is greater than whether Kamala Harris can become the change candidate. Last night, she made an impressive case that she will embody the right kind of change.

Change v. Status Quo

At its core, American politics is a battle between change and the status quo. Do the American people want to eat the same sandwich over and over or are they hungry for a new direction? During Obama’s hope-fueled campaign, our strategy in the 2008 primary and general elections was to embody change. Review photos and videos from that era; the signs and placards didn’t say “Hope” or even “Yes, We Can.” They all said “Change.” The campaign slogan was “Change You Can Believe In.”

The desire for change in America has steadily increased over recent decades. However, due to increasing polarization, Americans have grown more pessimistic. Gallup has been tracking this data for decades and the trend lines are very clear.

This is why the candidates representing change won three of the last four presidential elections — Obama in 2008, Donald Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020.

Against Biden, Trump was the Change Candidate

In 2024, voters want change. In a New York Times/Siena poll of the battleground states conducted before the debate, 70% of voters said that the system needed major changes or to be torn down completely. This sentiment was particularly strong among voters under the age of 30. The problem for Biden: voters did not believe he would make the changes they desired. 71% of voters thought Biden would not make major changes, while 70% thought Trump would make major changes or tear down the system. In a profoundly concerning finding, 43% thought that the changes Trump brought would be very or somewhat good for the country, and less than a quarter of voters said the same about Biden.

None of those numbers are particularly surprising; Biden was the incumbent running in an anti-incumbent environment powered by political cynicism and dissatisfaction with the economy.

Everything was upended when Biden stepped aside.

Harris Flipped the Script

Even though Kamala Harris is the sitting Vice President, voters view her very differently from Biden. In a New York Times/Siena poll of North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, 46% of voters think she will bring about major changes or tear down the system, and only 11% think she will make no change. This is an important improvement over Biden.

Harris doesn’t need to beat Trump on the New York Times’s question. Trump is a radical Republican running while a Democrat is in the White House, but does she represent the right kind of change? Not yet. She has some work to do — 38% say the changes she represents would be good; 43% say the same about Trump. The good news is that many voters don’t know enough about her yet to make a determination. That’s why, during her speech, it was critical that she said:

INSERT SECOND QUOTE

In another sign of progress, a Navigator Research battleground state poll found Harris barely trailing Trump on who would bring about needed change.

These numbers are encouraging. Harris’s “change” numbers will always be held down by Democrats who love her, but are very happy with President Biden’s direction for the country.

Kamala Harris Turns the Page

People like myself often spend too much time digging into the crosstabs. We sometimes fail to notice that people are sick and tired of our politics, and Donald Trump has been the dominant figure in our politics for nearly a decade. He is omnipresent in our lives. As Obama so aptly put it on Tuesday night:

It just goes on and on and on. The other day, I heard someone compare Trump to the neighbor who keeps running his leaf blower outside your window every minute of every day. Now, from a neighbor, that’s exhausting. From a President, it’s just dangerous.

The pure exhaustion with the never-ending battles and sniping of the Trump era is why so many people tuned out of politics. Many are weary over the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch. Been there, done that. Biden beat Trump once, and while things in the country improved greatly, many were still unsatisfied.

Harris represents an opportunity to turn the page on this entire era of politics, a prospect for a brighter, less rancorous future. Trump is now functioning as the de facto incumbent in the race.

People are thirsting for a new direction. They need to know more about Kamala Harris to believe she is the right person to deliver that change. Last night’s speech was a hell of a start.

Many factors will determine who wins the 2024 election, but perhaps not one is greater than whether Kamala Harris can become the change candidate. Last night, she made an impressive case that she will embody the right kind of change.

Change v. Status Quo

At its core, American politics is a battle between change and the status quo. Do the American people want to eat the same sandwich over and over or are they hungry for a new direction? During Obama’s hope-fueled campaign, our strategy in the 2008 primary and general elections was to embody change. Review photos and videos from that era; the signs and placards didn’t say “Hope” or even “Yes, We Can.” They all said “Change.” The campaign slogan was “Change You Can Believe In.”

The desire for change in America has steadily increased over recent decades. However, due to increasing polarization, Americans have grown more pessimistic. Gallup has been tracking this data for decades and the trend lines are very clear.

This is why the candidates representing change won three of the last four presidential elections — Obama in 2008, Donald Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020.

Against Biden, Trump was the Change Candidate

In 2024, voters want change. In a New York Times/Siena poll of the battleground states conducted before the debate, 70% of voters said that the system needed major changes or to be torn down completely. This sentiment was particularly strong among voters under the age of 30. The problem for Biden: voters did not believe he would make the changes they desired. 71% of voters thought Biden would not make major changes, while 70% thought Trump would make major changes or tear down the system. In a profoundly concerning finding, 43% thought that the changes Trump brought would be very or somewhat good for the country, and less than a quarter of voters said the same about Biden.

None of those numbers are particularly surprising; Biden was the incumbent running in an anti-incumbent environment powered by political cynicism and dissatisfaction with the economy.

Everything was upended when Biden stepped aside.

Harris Flipped the Script

Even though Kamala Harris is the sitting Vice President, voters view her very differently from Biden. In a New York Times/Siena poll of North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, 46% of voters think she will bring about major changes or tear down the system, and only 11% think she will make no change. This is an important improvement over Biden.

Harris doesn’t need to beat Trump on the New York Times’s question. Trump is a radical Republican running while a Democrat is in the White House, but does she represent the right kind of change? Not yet. She has some work to do — 38% say the changes she represents would be good; 43% say the same about Trump. The good news is that many voters don’t know enough about her yet to make a determination. That’s why, during her speech, it was critical that she said that she spent so much time telling her story, articulating her values, and laying out her agenda.

In another sign of progress, a Navigator Research battleground state poll found Harris barely trailing Trump on who would bring about needed change.

These numbers are encouraging. Harris’s “change” numbers will always be held down by Democrats who love her, but are very happy with President Biden’s direction for the country.

Kamala Harris Turns the Page

People like myself often spend too much time digging into the crosstabs. We sometimes fail to notice that people are sick and tired of our politics, and Donald Trump has been the dominant figure in our politics for nearly a decade. He is omnipresent in our lives. As Obama so aptly put it on Tuesday night:

It just goes on and on and on. The other day, I heard someone compare Trump to the neighbor who keeps running his leaf blower outside your window every minute of every day. Now, from a neighbor, that’s exhausting. From a President, it’s just dangerous.

The pure exhaustion with the never-ending battles and sniping of the Trump era is why so many people tuned out of politics. Many are weary over the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch. Been there, done that. Biden beat Trump once, and while things in the country improved greatly, many were still unsatisfied.

A central goal of this speech was to show that Kamala Harris offers her words “a new way forward.

Harris represents an opportunity to turn the page on this entire era of politics, a prospect for a brighter, less rancorous future. Trump is now functioning as the de facto incumbent in the race.

People are thirsting for a new direction. They need to know more about Kamala Harris to believe she is the right person to deliver that change. Last night’s speech was a hell of a start.

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