In a bizarre ending to a bizarre campaign with an even more bizarre candidate, Robert Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the presidential race yesterday and endorsed Donald Trump.

For much of the campaign, RFK Jr. was an object of fascination. Democrats like myself were deeply concerned that he could elect Trump. Republicans viewed him as a secret weapon. Kennedy Jr. was a favorite of MAGA media personalities like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon. The largest funder of a pro-RFK Jr. Super PAC was Timothy Mellon, who coincidentally happens to be one of Trump’s biggest donors.

Earlier in the year, Kennedy was polling at around 10% nationally and nearly that high in several battleground states. That number dipped in recent weeks, especially since Kamala Harris became the candidate and consolidated much of the anti-MAGA coalition. Other than laughing at his expense for his outlandish story about a dead bear as told to Roseanne Barr, most Democrats gave little attention to Kennedy Jr. recently.

That changed earlier this week when rumors began circulating about RFK Jr. potentially dropping out and endorsing Trump. After a month-long run of unabated good news, and because we are Democrats, we are now waiting for the inevitable turn of the worm. In recent days, Message Box subscribers, Democratic activists, and people I ran into at the convention asked countless questions about Robert F Kennedy Jr’s endorsement of Trump. The question is often phrased as “How screwed are we?”

Let me try to answer it.

What Do the Polls Say?

For much of the last year, there was an ongoing debate about who RFK Jr. was helping and who he was hurting. On one hand, he is a Kennedy — Democratic royalty with a long career as an environmentalist before becoming an anti-vax conspiracy theorist. On the other hand, his anti-vax beliefs appealed to MAGA voters with low levels of trust in politicians, institutions, and science.

When it was Biden vs. Trump, RFK Jr. was pulling more from Biden than Trump. This made sense. Trump’s base was more fully behind him than Biden. More wayward Democrats were looking for a place to go.

In a Harris vs. Trump match-up, RFK Jr. takes evenly from both. In the New York Times polling average, Harris leads Trump 46-44, with Kennedy Jr. getting 4% support. In a head-to-head match-up between Harris and Trump, she leads by two points, 48-46...