Aziz Sunderji - The Week in Review
Welcome back to Home Economics, a newsletter about the American housing market. This is The Week in Review, my weekly recap of macro and real estate news. Articles with a ◎ are free. Those with a ◉ have free previews but are only accessible in full for paying subscribers. Upgrade your subscription here: 🚨 Today I am sharing the most useful tool I have developed to date: Housing Policy Analyst, a ChatGPT chatbot. The Analyst is trained on a repository of academic papers related to housing, especially affordability, zoning regulations, land-use policy, and the economics of housing. You can ask the Analyst questions like:
After reading Cameron Murray’s searing criticism of Edward Glaeser’s work this morning, I asked the Analyst how Glaeser would respond: I’ve calibrated the Analyst to ensure it helps users understand the balance between empirical findings, theoretical frameworks, and policy debates on housing issues—delivered in a nerdy but casual tone readers of this newsletter might appreciate. Paying subscribers can find the link to the Housing Policy Analyst here ◉. Next week is relatively data-light, with the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) on Monday, inflation data on Wednesday, and Zillow home prices—my favorite early indicator of where prices are headed—on Thursday. Subscribers can download the housing economic data calendar here ◉. News: Residential construction spending declined Residential construction spending decreased in July. This makes sense: as prices moderate, so should homebuilding. Total residential outlays slid 0.4% in July, the first decline in four months. Prior data was revised upwards slightly, but a downtrend in both single and multifamily permits, decelerating home prices, and ongoing weakness in the Architecture Billings Index, suggest more weakness in construction ahead. I showed the relationship between home prices and home starts last year, here ◉ and in the chart below. The TLDR: “periods of declining construction and falling prices (at least, in real terms) have overlapped. And, in terms of timing, prices tend to fall before construction cools. This makes sense, since it takes time for homebuilding companies to adjust to the falling demand, or oversupply, signaled by falling prices.” As price gains slow, the historical relationship between prices and construction suggests construction will continue to slow, too. News: Job growth was weaker than expected Nonfarm payrolls rose 142k in August, below expectations. Prior releases were revised down. The unemployment rate ticked down by 3bp to 4.22% (reflecting a decline in temporary layoffs but a rise in unemployed new entrants as a share of the labor force). According to Goldman Sachs, “the underlying pace of job growth based on the payroll and household surveys now stands at 120k after adjusting for the undercounting of immigration in the official statistics, below our estimated breakeven rate of 150k jobs/month.” In other words, despite this month’s slight tick down in unemployment, the economy is not adding jobs fast enough to prevent the unemployment rate from rising in the future. Most big banks still expect a quarter point cut at the next FOMC meeting, in 10 days time. Slow Horses, Season 4. I love this show. Gary Oldman is spectacular as a rumpled, washed up detective running a team of MI-5 misfits. Critics say this is the best season yet. I haven’t started watching it yet, but it’s in my queue. Slow Horses, on Apple TV, here ◉. Ripley. Set in the 1960s, this show follows con man Tom Ripley (Andrew Scott) who is hired to travel to Italy to bring a wealthy family's son home to New York. Shot in black and white, Steve Zaillian's eight-part limited series based on Patricia Highsmith's Tom Ripley novels is stunning to look at and a delight to watch. Ripley, on Netflix, here ◉. Apple Watch. I’ve used one of these in the past, but it didn’t stick. When my wife abandoned hers last week, I adopted it. These things are dangerous—the last time I used one I just ended up frazzled with all the constant beeping and booping. But I’ve carefully calibrated my focus mode settings such that I only get critical notifications when I am working. The tech has also improved since I last wore an Apple Watch, and things like maps and tapping to enter the subway are really useful. I hate to shill Apple products, but the company will announce a new lineup of watches tomorrow. Just saying. PS: I wrote about “Focus Mode”—a critical setting for Apple users—in a Week in Review from May ◉, here: I hope you’re having a great weekend. Home Economics is a reader-supported publication. Please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support our work. Paying clients receive access to the full archive, forecasts, data sets, and exclusive in-depth analysis. This edition is free—you can forward it to colleagues who appreciate concise, data-driven housing analysis. |
Older messages
The Week in Review
Sunday, September 1, 2024
Week of August 26 — Prices Decelerate, Rents Recede ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
What Determines Home Prices?
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Hint: it's (mostly) not supply ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
The Week in Review
Sunday, August 25, 2024
Week of Aug 19 — Sales surge ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Why is New York City Shrinking?
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Who is leaving, and where are they going? ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
The Week in Review
Sunday, August 4, 2024
Week of July 29th — Recession Risks Rise ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
You Might Also Like
A City Needs A Heartbeat
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Modest but broad zoning reform is what many anti-development people would support if they meant what they said ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
A Basic Guide to Gilding Tools, Materials, and Terminology
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Breaking down the jargon around gold and metal leaf, gilding tools, and lots more golden nuggets. BLAG Magazine: Adventures in Sign Painting Craft, Community & Culture bl.ag online weekly (all
"A Violet Darkness" by Najwan Darwish, translated by Kareem James Abu-Zeid
Thursday, September 19, 2024
And all that remains for me is to follow a violet darkness Facebook Twitter Instagram Support Poem-a-Day September 19, 2024 A Violet Darkness Najwan Darwish translated from the Arabic by Kareem James
Let the great airport debate begin
Thursday, September 19, 2024
But first: let's make linen season last forever — Check out what we Skimm'd for you today September 19, 2024 Subscribe Read in browser But first: let's make linen season last forever Update
Nourishment is your Radical Responsibility
Thursday, September 19, 2024
And your body knows. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
We're Calling It—This London Girl Skirt Trend Is About To Be *Everywhere*
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Obsessed. The Zoe Report Daily The Zoe Report 9.18.2024 We're Calling It—This London Girl Skirt Trend Is About To Be *Everywhere* (Runway) We're Calling It—This London Girl Skirt Trend Is About
‘Why Does My Boyfriend Always Choose His Friends Over Me?’
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
What's new today on the Cut — covering style, self, culture, and power, plus interviews, profiles, columns, and commentary from our editors. Brand Logo WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 advice 'Why Does
9 Demo-Free Ways to Remodel Your Home
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
A Guide to Amazon's October Prime Day Deals Event. Skip the mess (and save some cash) by covering, transforming, and hiding instead of tearing out and replacing. Not displaying correctly? View this
"What is it that I glimpse / There on the distant shore"
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
September 18, 2024 hispanic heritage month A facsimile of Nicolás Heredia y Mota's poem “La bandera americana,” courtesy of Edgar Peguero y Heredia. read the poem more reading poet laureate fellow
Selena Gomez Paired A Carrie Bradshaw Classic With A “Cheugy” Fave
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Plus, 12 "cherry mocha" nail art ideas, your daily horoscope, & more. Sep. 18, 2024 Bustle Daily A hand holds the book "Blue Sisters" by Coco Mellors, featuring four illustrated