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Is Kamala Harris Getting a Post-Debate Bounce in the Polls?

It's early, but the initial signs are positive

Dan Pfeiffer

Sep 16

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There’s no question that Kamala Harris won the debate as all of the post-debate polls showed; but a poll isn’t necessary to state the obvious. Based on the sad look in his eyes and rage in his voice, even Donald Trump knew he was losing early into the night.

Since the debate, the vibes have been great for Harris and terrible for Trump. The Vice President received the endorsement of Taylor Swift and has been barnstorming the battleground states with raucous rally after raucous rally. Trump, in contrast, is in the process of self-immolating over complaints about the moderator, spinning mythical tales of pet-eating migrants, and picking a fight with Taylor Swift.

All of this is great news. Fifty days to go, and Harris’s opponent decides to abandon their message to pick fights with the media and popstars. We know debates can significantly impact a race because the last debate shifted the polls so much that Biden ended his candidacy. Therefore, the question is whether Kamala Harris’s big debate win would move the polls.

I looked at of the polling and recent history, and here is what I found:

What the Polls Say

The national polling averages remain largely unchanged. On the day of the debate, the FiveThirtyEight polling average had Harris leading Trump by 2.5%. Today, that lead is 2.8%. However, a steady stream of positive polls for Harris came out since the debate...