There has never been more public polling in a political campaign. If you are a news junkie like me (and for your sake, I hope you aren’t), you get push notifications about new polls. Those notifications come fast and furious all day long. Some of these polls are high quality, conducted by reputable pollsters or media organizations with solid track records. However, many are unreliable, coming from obscure sources with little credibility. Some of the polls are just partisan schlock that exists for the sole purpose of making Donald Trump feel better about himself.

This is one of the many reasons you should never obsess over one poll. Instead, pay attention to the averages and general trends. I rarely write about one specific poll—especially a horserace poll. The New York Times/Siena poll is the exception. As one of the highest-rated polls from one of the world’s most influential news organizations, it carries unparalleled weight in shaping the political conversation. During the post-debate fracas, the Biden campaign was so concerned about the potential impact of the upcoming NYT poll on their chances of staying in the race that they issued a memo pre-butting the poll before its release.

On Sunday morning, Nate Cohn and the folks at the New York Times decided to ruin the first NFL Sunday of the year by dropping a pre-debate poll that revealed a much tighter race than most had anticipated. While the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Harris with a 3.1% lead nationally, the NYT/Siena national poll of likely voters presents a different picture, with Trump leading 48% to 47%. 

Democrats have been exuberant since Kamala Harris became the nominee. What once seemed like a likely loss transformed into a race where Harris gained significant momentum and excitement. Both Harris and Walz have been strong on the campaign trail, and the convention exceeded expectations. The electoral anxiety that has defined us since 2016 had faded over the past couple of months. However, based on my text messages and emails from fellow Democrats and Message Box readers, that anxiety has returned in full force this morning.

I take this poll very seriously. There is a lot of work to do. So, I will not dig into the crosstabs to find anomalies to discredit the result. There are plenty of people doing that on Twitter (X), but I still don't think you should panic.

1. A Close Race Is Practically an Inevitability

Being exuberant over a 3-point lead and despondent over a one-point deficit belies a misunderstanding of how polls work. Polling is an inexact science, hence a margin of error. These polls essentially convey the same message: this will be an extremely close race, likely decided by fewer people across several states than the number who attended the Michigan-Texas football game on Saturday. The margin in 2016 was around 70,000 votes, and in 2020, it was even narrower. We remain a deeply polarized and closely divided nation...