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Making Sense of the Very Confusing NYT Polls

Can Kamala Harris really be up 4 in PA, but tied nationally?

Dan Pfeiffer

Sep 19

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There has been a flood of polls following last week’s debate. Most have been very good for Kamala Harris, but there have been some conflicting results suggesting the debate was less impactful than Democrats hoped. Real polling junkies like myself were waiting with bated breath for the New York Times/Siena poll to drop and settle the dispute. Many of the recent polls were from high-quality pollsters, but for several reasons, the NYT poll tends to affect political discourse the most.

Well, on Thursday morning, the New York Times dropped not one but two polls; and let’s just say the picture is no clearer.

The first was a national poll that showed the race was tied 47-47. Trump had a one-point lead in their pre-debate poll. The second poll involved the all-important battleground state of Pennsylvania and showed Harris winning 50-46.

This is all very confusing. These polls, frankly, raise more questions than they answer. It is a Rorschach test for partisans. Depending on how one looks at the poll, it can be good news for Harris or Trump. If you are someone who wants to dismiss New York Times polling (or all polling) this poll could be a talking point.

I dug into the crosstabs of both polls to interpret the results and answer the questions we are all asking...