Making Sense of the Very Confusing NYT Polls
Making Sense of the Very Confusing NYT PollsCan Kamala Harris really be up 4 in PA, but tied nationally?There has been a flood of polls following last week’s debate. Most have been very good for Kamala Harris, but there have been some conflicting results suggesting the debate was less impactful than Democrats hoped. Real polling junkies like myself were waiting with bated breath for the New York Times/Siena poll to drop and settle the dispute. Many of the recent polls were from high-quality pollsters, but for several reasons, the NYT poll tends to affect political discourse the most. Well, on Thursday morning, the New York Times dropped not one but two polls; and let’s just say the picture is no clearer. The first was a national poll that showed the race was tied 47-47. Trump had a one-point lead in their pre-debate poll. The second poll involved the all-important battleground state of Pennsylvania and showed Harris winning 50-46. This is all very confusing. These polls, frankly, raise more questions than they answer. It is a Rorschach test for partisans. Depending on how one looks at the poll, it can be good news for Harris or Trump. If you are someone who wants to dismiss New York Times polling (or all polling) this poll could be a talking point. I dug into the crosstabs of both polls to interpret the results and answer the questions we are all asking... Unlock this post for free, courtesy of Dan Pfeiffer. |
Older messages
Are Trump's Racist Lies about Pet Eating Migrants Helping His Campaign?
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Yes, this is a real question some folks are asking ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Is Kamala Harris Getting a Post-Debate Bounce in the Polls?
Monday, September 16, 2024
It's early, but the initial signs are positive ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Why Kamala Harris Wants to Debate Trump Again
Sunday, September 15, 2024
Some have wondered why Harris should risk another debate, but despite a great performance there is more work to do ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Today: Join my post-debate subscriber chat
Thursday, September 12, 2024
I will be answering subscriber questions about the debate and everything ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
How Kamala Harris's Dominant Debate Will Affect the Race
Thursday, September 12, 2024
The Vice President's performance was designed to win the race, not just the debate ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
You Might Also Like
Amazon's Fall Prime Day Sale Just Dropped — Here's *Everything* We're Buying
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
These deals will sell out fast. The Zoe Report Daily The Zoe Report 10.8.2024 Amazon's Fall Prime Day Sale Just Dropped — Here's *Everything* We're Buying (Shopping) Amazon's Fall Prime
The Best Thing: October 8, 2024
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
The Best Thing is our weekly discussion thread where we share the one thing that we read, listened to, watched, did, or otherwise enjoyed recent… ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
This Universally Flattering Lipstick Color Is Fall's Hottest Shade
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Plus, the best Fall Amazon Prime Day deals. The Zoe Report Beauty The Zoe Report 10.8.2024 (Beauty) This Universally Flattering Lipstick Color Is Fall's Hottest Shade (Makeup) This Universally
15 October Prime Day Deals Actually Worth Paying Attention To
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Amazon's October Prime Day sale is throwing a lot of deals at you, but these offers are some of the best actually worth paying attention to. Not displaying correctly? View this newsletter online.
Doja Cat's Sheer Bustier Dress Is Pure Goth Bride
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Plus, the surprising panty trend for fall, your daily horoscope, & more. Oct. 8, 2024 Bustle Daily A woman with dark hair and red lips poses in a denim shirt against a peach background featuring a
Backpack Bans Are Making Teens Dread Their Periods
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Today in style, self, culture, and power. The Cut October 8, 2024 SELF Backpack Bans Are Making Teens Dread Their Period Girls say the policies force them to hide tampons in their hair and shoes. By
The best October Prime Day kitchen deals
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
This is the canned beverage we've been waiting for
⚡Amazon Prime Big Deal Day!⚡
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Special Offer From Our Friends At Mens Health logo ⚡Amazon Prime Big Deal Day!⚡ View in Browser No Gym Required: Kettlebells One Kettlebell, Serious Results One Kettlebell, Serious Results Want to
Alphabet Poster
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Alphabet Poster Edith Zimmerman Oct 8 READ IN APP Like Comment Restack © 2024 Edith Zimmerman New York State Unsubscribe Get the app Start writing
Keep yelling about climate change
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
It can feel demoralizing in the face of delay, but new peer-reviewed research suggests it's not always in vain. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏