Will a 'Black Nazi' Flip North Carolina for Democrats?

Topline Takeaways

• Republican North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov Mark Robinson has been exposed for describing himself as a "Black Nazi" on an internet pornography forum.
• Trump quickly distanced himself from his former endorsement of Robinson as both candidates fall behind their Democratic challengers in recent polling.
• House Republicans have a bit more insulation from the fallout of Robinson's scandal as they recently re-drew congressional districts and produced a map that flips three formerly safe Democratic seats toward Republicans.

Republicans Nominate a "Black Nazi"

North Carolina Republicans nominated a self-described "Black Nazi" to run for the governor's seat and many in the party are regretting their primary pick. The moniker comes from online posts made by Republican gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson that were exposed less than 24 hours before the deadline for candidates to withdraw from the race. Robinson immediately denounced the posts as "salacious tabloid lies," despite the fact that CNN was able to identify that the username responsible has been used by Robinson on other platforms.

For anyone who's been following this race closely, this news doesn't come as a surprise. Robinson has been repeatedly quoted spouting hateful rhetoric when discussing divisive political issues. With respect to abortion, he's claimed that "Everybody knows that abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers... It’s about killing the child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down or your pants up." When it comes to LGBTQ rights he's suggested trans people shouldn't use ANY restrooms and should "find a corner outside somewhere" to relieve themselves. When the candidate has literally been quoted saying, "some folks need killing," internet posts about being a Black Nazi fold in quite well with his rhetoric.

"There’s no reason anybody anywhere in America should be telling any child about transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth. And yes, I called it filth. And if you don’t like that I called it filth, come see me, and I’ll explain it to you."
-Lt. Gov Mark Robinson (R) speaking at a Baptist church in 2021

As I've written before: Black Republicans rarely win elections. Robinson is likely to fall victim to this trend as he was already polling significantly behind his Democratic challenger Attorney General Josh Stein. But this new revelation has Republicans fretting about how this might affect other North Carolina races where they're better positioned to win.

Trump Distances Himself from Endorsement

Back in March, Donald Trump proudly endorsed Lt. Gov Mark Robinson and called him "Martin Luther King on steroids." (Cue the eyeroll...🙄) But in the wake of this latest scandal, the former president is trying to ignore Robinson's disastrous campaign altogether. Despite appearing together at previous events, Robinson was not invited to appear at Trump's most recent rally in Wilmington, NC and Trump didn't mention Robinson once in his hour-long speech.

This late-stage scandal just might doom Republicans in North Carolina's presidential race, in part because of how Kamala Harris is tailoring her campaign incredibly well to North Carolina voters. While Republicans attempt to contain the fallout from Robinson's scandal, Vice President Harris has been successfully targeting moderate Republicans who are uneasy about the direction of their party. In her debate against Trump, she spent quite a bit of time convincing defense hawks that she will "ensure we have the most lethal fighting force in the world." This rings especially loudly in North Carolina; a state that proclaims itself the "most military friendly state" in the country. (The state has the third largest military presence when counting both veterans and active-duty personnel.)

Between Kamala's neoconservative rhetoric and Robinson's gaffe-ridden campaign, Democrats are increasingly hopeful that they can flip the state on the presidential-level for the first time since Obama's win in 2008. They're also hoping to produce some movement in down-ballot US House races but that task will prove much more difficult after a recent round of redistricting has created favorable conditions for House Republicans.

Republicans Draw Themselves Some Safety

North Carolina will be using an entirely new map of congressional districts in the 2024 elections that's likely to shift the make-up of their current US House delegation. Right now, the state's House reps are split evenly between the two parties with 7 Democrats and 7 Republicans representing the state's 14 congressional districts. But after a 2023 North Carolina Supreme Court ruling returned redistricting power back to Republicans in state government, legislators drew a new map that heavily favored their own party.

Districts are shaded to correspond with the party of the incumbent. (Districts 6, 13 and 14 are expected to flip following the 2024 elections.)

The new map takes three districts that formerly voted for Biden in the 2020 elections and turns them all into safe 'Trump' districts, effectively drawing Democrats out of three congressional seats. As a result, Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning (District 6), Wiley Nickel (District 13) and Jeff Jackson (District 14) are all retiring after this year. To throw salt in the wound, Democrats didn't even nominate a candidate to run in NC-6, meaning they're basically handing the district over to Republicans. Control of the House is already incredibly close with Republicans only holding a 9-seat majority at time of writing. This new map may help Republicans offset House losses in other parts of the country and could be the key to the party holding their majority in the House.

Data from North Carolina State Board of Elections