Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Golden Autumn; Isaac Levitan; 1895

Last season, the NBA had four first-time All-Stars … all in the Eastern Conference, one (Scottie Barnes) selected as an injury replacement. In 2023, the NBA had six first-time All-Stars, five of them in the West (two of which, Anthony Edwards and De’Aaron Fox, were injury replacements). In 2022, the NBA had seven first-time All-Stars. In 2021, there were five. In 2020, there were 10. In 2019, there were five. In 2018, there were six.

Are these numbers surprising to you? They seem quite surprising. We think of the term “All-Star level player” to be fairly exclusive, but there are a lot of players who have been All-Stars in the NBA, because there is pretty substantial turnover on a year-to-year basis, and the number of All-Stars we think there are in any given year (24) is often expanded by the 2-4 injury replacements selected by the commissioner’s office.

You would think that, as with coaching turnover, there would be a boom-bust cycle for first-time All-Stars. But it’s not really the case as stars age out of recognition, some players become one-and-out All-Stars and young stars rise up the rankings.

With all that said, here’s a list of seven potential first-time All-Stars in 2024-25, ranging from obvious to stretches.

Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Fellow Elder Millennials, were you a “duh” kid or a “doy” kid? Please don’t say you were an “uh-doy!” kid. I was a “duh” kid. In any case, regarding Victor Wembanyama becoming a first-time All-Star in 2024-25: duh, doy or even, regrettably uh-doy!.

There’s a real chance that Wembanyama is voted as a starter in the West, and that within a couple of years he enters the top vote-getter pantheon with LeBron, Steph and Giannis. This also sparks an idea: if the NBA can be convinced to go back to the All-Star draft (please!), instead of the top vote-getters being captains (which is funny but political or complicated in some ways), the two youngest All-Stars should draft teams. Last season that probably would have been Barnes and Paolo Banchero. Real psychological trap season.

Jalen Williams, Thunder

J-Dub averaged 19 on exceptional shooting for a No. 1 seed. Any improvement plus continued OKC excellence will put him in range of All-Star status, even in the deep and convoluted West, where the rise of Wembanyama and reintroduction of Ja Morant is going to keep things very tight.

I could pick a whole team of potential first-time West All-Stars, but there are already so few spots available unless a bunch of veterans get injured or fall off.

Derrick White, Celtics

White is the only core Celtics star without an All-Star nod to his name. I have a sense he was next on the injury replacement list last season; frankly, in retrospect, I’m a little surprised Adam Silver picked Barnes instead. If the Celtics remain amazing to start the season, and White continues to do very Derrick White things, I think he has a great shot to get the nod from coaches as a wild card pick...