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Ten Econ Takeaways From Trump and Harris

by Darian Woods

For this edition of the Planet Money newsletter, we’re turning it over to Indicator co-host Darian Woods, who recently reported on the economic platforms of the two main presidential candidates.

In a recent two-part series on The Indicator, I reported on the economic platforms of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. I learned a lot, and we thought it might be informative to distill what I learned into a top ten list. Here you go:

1) Trump is tapping into a vein of deep anger about the U.S. economy, which is voters' number one issue.

2) Trump's proposed tariffs would be very costly. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates they'd add at least $2,600 in annual expenses for the typical US household. The study's authors reckon this is, if anything, an underestimate.

3) There's scant evidence American-born workers would be better off financially if Trump delivers his promise for mass deportations. The National Academy of Sciences brought in immigration researchers to review the literature. They concluded immigration overall has a positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S.

4) Reforming the regulatory system is a priority for the left and right alike. Trump talks about cutting red tape more.

Saul Loeb/Getty Images

5) Increasing the child tax credit is also a bipartisan cause. Harris made raising the CTC to $6,000 for the first year of newborns the centerpiece of her economic agenda.

6) Harris' plan to raise corporate taxes to 28% would likely reduce companies' capital investments, but its effects on economic growth are surprisingly unclear.

7) Taxing unrealised capital gains for people with over $100 million in wealth is uncharted territory. Very few countries do this.

8) On housing, Harris is proposing both demand- and supply-based policies to help families own their own home. But actually building houses will be the harder one. The $25,000 first-home credit, without increased building, would just be eaten up by higher home prices.

9) Most economists hate Harris' anti-price-gouging policy. Anti-price-gouging laws are already in place in many states, and have been used in fairly limited situations like the pandemic.

10) Neither candidate offers serious plans for reducing the federal debt. According to four think tanks, over 10 years, Trump's plans would increase the deficit by $3.6 billion to $6.6 trillion, while Harris' plan would increase the federal deficit less, but still at a sizable $400 billion to $1.4 trillion.

For more, check out our recent episodes on The Indicator: here and here.

Thanks to guests Oren Cass, Veronique de Rugy, and Kathryn Anne Edwards, as well as to Mary E. Lovely and Kimberly Clausing for their analysis.

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On Our Podcasts

What's THAT got to do with economics? — "Wanna see a trick? Give us any topic and we can tie it back to the economy." Listen here

Inside the economic minds of the VP candidates — Next week, JD Vance and Tim Walz will face off in the only confirmed vice presidential debate ahead of the election. As voters look ahead to what their economic policies might be, we look back to see what they have said and done, and how it turned out. Listen here

America's small GDP bump, China's big stimulus dispersal, and a Monkey King — It's time for ... Indicators of the Week! It is a recurring Indicator show where they talk about fascinating numbers from the news. In this episode: America's small GDP increase, a big assist from China's government to its lower income residents, and a high-grossing, centuries-old Monkey King. Listen here

Also on The Indicator: What does the next era of Social Security look like?; Are pharmacy benefit managers driving up drug prices? (Update); How to pass on a global media empire; and Could you live without GPS? It's OK, the economy can't, either

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