The big events are behind us (unless Trump sets his fear aside and debates Kamala Harris). Yes, earlier this week Iran launched a missile attack on Israel and a hurricane devastated the Southeast, but it does feel like the Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump campaign may have stabilized. Prior to this week, suspicion arose that the polls were being artificially inflated because of a dominant news story or big event. During the GOP convention, was Trump getting a bump from the assassination attempt? Was it the typical convention bump or continued aftereffects of his debate against Biden? Were Harris’s improved numbers in September temporary or evidence that she was consolidating the anti-MAGA coalition?

We finally have a real picture of the race’s equilibrium, and with 30 days to go, it’s time to take a step back and see where things stand and where they might go.

1. What the Polls Say

The national polling has been remarkably stable. As of October 4th, Harris leads a bit more than two points nationally.

Her lead sat between one and three for months with very little change. It “ballooned” to three points after the debate but later regressed as public memory faded.

Harris’s lead seems durable. It is, however, not yet big enough to feel particularly confident about her chances with the Electoral College. The battleground states that Harris needs to win are more Republican than the nation as a whole, which is why the Electoral College is biased towards Republicans...