The Nexus of eCommerce, Payments, and Debt.

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Back To Mondays (No. 1,012). Would you use this service

The most recent letter was read by 45.9% of subscribers. Today's deep dive into the eCom and debt trend, see the memo atop today's letter and the member brief near the footer. 


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MEMO (🔓): The commerce, payments, and debt products industries are converging. Shopify is one of the few companies that sits at the nexus of these three.

Over the last few months, I spent a substantial amount of time preparing for and passing my Securities Industry Essentials Exam (SIE) to gain at least a rudimentary understanding of consumer, fiduciary, and monetary principles and how they impact equity and debt markets. I learned a lot along the way. The motivation was and is to understand the mechanics of financial markets with some proficiency (and maybe pursue a Series 7, who knows). As I went through this studying process, it became clear that understanding today’s online retail landscape requires a firm grasp of the financial systems.

Payments, debt, and commerce are all converging. Shopify is at its nexus.

Shopify is one company at the intersection of commerce, payments, and debt. To properly analyze the growth of companies like it, you also have to understand the financial systems that it relies on for growth businesses.

At its core, Shopify is a platform that enables small and medium-sized businesses to build and operate online stores. The company’s value proposition and its ability to support merchant growth have positioned it as a pillar of the eCommerce ecosystem. But many on the outside may not realize that Shopify’s growth trajectory is tied not just to the number of new stores it enables, but also to the financial products it offers. Shopify’s venture into lending and merchant cash advances (MCAs) through Shopify Capital has positioned it as both a commerce enabler and a financial services player. Continue Reading

Wealthier Americans are Driving Retail Spending and Powering US Economy

Consumer Indicators: It's a trend that has surprised many: Why, despite being squeezed by high prices, have Americans kept spending at retail stores and restaurants at a robust pace? One key reason

Map Shows States with Worst Credit Card Debt

Consumer Indicators: "Many of these states, particularly in the southeastern United States, encounter more issues with this because of lower incomes in their areas. With inflation still playing a large role in most everyday costs, many of these state residents have turned to credit cards and other financial debt products to ease the burden and are now struggling to make payments."

Have Paychecks Kept Up With the Cost of Living?

Consumer Indicators: In polls and interviews ahead of the presidential election, people of virtually all ideologies and income levels say inflation has made it harder to make ends meet, eclipsing whatever raises they have managed to win from their employers.

Target takes on Walmart and Aldi with Ultra-Cheap Thanksgiving basket

Consumer Indicators: Target’s Thanksgiving offering serves four, but could “easily be doubled to serve eight,” and includes all the essentials for a traditional dinner, including a hefty turkey (up to 10 lbs.), stuffing mix, gravy, russet potatoes, green beans, and cranberry sauce. Plus, side dishes like cheddar mac and cranberry goat cheese, along with desserts such as apple and pumpkin pie, are all priced under $5.

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Supporting Data: eCommerce's rise as a key player in debt and consumer financing coincides with a period of record-high consumer credit and soaring personal loan defaults, reaching new peaks in Q2 2024. While lending products and flexible payment options have fueled eCommerce growth, the financial ecosystem supporting these loans has never been more vulnerable to systemic risk.

With consumer budgets stretched, eCommerce giants—and the banks purchasing their debt portfolios—face unprecedented exposure to economic instability. As defaults rise, these platforms must balance growth ambitions with rigorous risk management to withstand potential volatility in the debt market, redefining the financial landscape.

Aesthetic Debuts its 'Shazam for Clothes' AI Platform

eCom Tech / WWD: AI platform Aesthetic launches its "Shazam for Clothes," allowing users to shop their favorite looks directly on Instagram and TikTok.

Survey: Shoppers Browse on Social Commerce Sites, Shy Away From Purchasing

Consumer Behavior / CSA: Trust and security are significant factors when it comes to consumers deciding to shop on social commerce platforms or not.

In Data: China's eCommerce Market Hits $2.2 trillion

Data / Yahoo!: GlobalData's analytics revealed that China's e-commerce market registered 11.9% growth in 2023 to reach CNY15.4trn ($2.2trn), as consumers increasingly preferred online purchases.

The most-read links from the most recent letter:
 
🔺 
Mr. Beast Fumbled an Amazon Deal Worth $100 Million 
🔺 TikTok Shop's First Year in the US
🔺 TikTok emerges as the new search engine
🔺 Vintage Shopping is Booming 
🔺 Tiptop May Redefine Payments 

Why Are So Many Supermarket Brands Losing Shelf Space?

Brand Development: Gone are the days of growing a consumer packaged goods brand like a tech startup. Now, companies are struggling to retain a hold in the retail marketplace.

The Strategy That Brought Adidas Back From the Brink

Brand Development: Adidas has mounted one of the more remarkable turnarounds in recent memory after facing a crisis two years ago from the end of its Yeezy business. BoF spoke to chief executive Bjørn Gulden and other members of Adidas' leadership to unpack how a series of bold decisions on products like its Samba sneaker, a move to refocus the brand on athletes and internal shifts brought Adidas back from the brink.

First Look: Swiss Sports Brand On Continues U.S. Store Expansion

Brand Development: “These flagship stores are a testament to On’s growth in the Americas, and we couldn’t be more excited to expand our brand presence in two iconic cities,” said Dan Schade, general manager of On Americas. â€śThese spaces are more than just stores — they’re where the full expression of the On brand comes to life, embodying everything we stand for: premium design, high performance and sustainability, tailored to meet the needs of our customers and foster community in each market.” 

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October Update, presented by Bold Metrics. Crumbl overtook Shein after an impressive 61-week reign due to its strategic use of a rotating weekly menu and heavy social media presence, particularly on TikTok. The cookie company’s unique approach to generating excitement with limited-time flavors, paired with an Instagram-friendly product and its iconic pink packaging, created a constant buzz.

Crumbl’s ability to quickly integrate feedback, maintain customer engagement, and lean into nostalgia also helped it leap ahead. Its hyper-localized franchise model and the scalability of its in-store experience also contributed to its rapid expansion and brand loyalty​.

This month's fastest growers: 

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800+ Brands Measured

Are Clothes Swaps the Future of Sustainable Fashion?

Sustainability / Wonderland: For many young consumers today, the humanitarian and environmental impacts of fast fashion have become hard to ignore: Business Insider reports that in 2023, 65% of Gen Z shoppers aim to shop more sustainably and invest in higher-quality clothing. As a result, lots are turning away from fast fashion in favour of its more responsible counterpart, slow fashion — whether through online secondhand platforms, ethical brand investments, or passing along “pre-loved” pieces onto the next taker.

Keurig Dr Pepper to Acquire Energy Drink Maker Ghost

DTC Outcomes (Ranked No. 59): Founded in 2016, Ghost is a lifestyle sports nutrition business with a portfolio anchored by Ghost Energy, a leading ready-to-drink energy brand. Ghost's net sales have more than quadrupled over the past three years, and Ghost Energy is one of the fastest-growing brands in the energy category, characterized by its unique identity, distinctive flavors and packaging, and strong consumer appeal.

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Member Brief: The Top Players Leading The Charge: The industry is evolving into a comprehensive ecosystem where finance plays a critical role in retaining customers, enabling small businesses, and creating steady revenue streams. Let’s take a closer look at some of the top companies leading in this space, blending fintech with retail for long-term growth.

Access the List

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Can you get rid of forever chemicals? More countries are finding out (Blue Marble). Jeff Bezos Defends Decision to End Washington Post Endorsements (NY Times).

US to ban outbound investments in China’s chips, AI over national security (
SCMP). China Tightens Its Hold on Minerals Needed to Make Computer Chips (NY Times). Congress raised the national security alarm on shipbuilding (Marine Link). Want to read more on topics like these? Executive Members receive this new series of newsletters.
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