The State of the Race with Two Days to Go
The State of the Race with Two Days to GoA run down of the polls, the early vote data, and best paths to 270.This is it. We are at the end. That notion is equal parts exhilarating and nauseating. The election is here, and we will know who won (hopefully) in the next few days. Throughout this campaign — even when Joe Biden was the nominee — we have been looking at the electoral map to see the best path to 270. In the Biden era, the map was very scary. His only path was winning the Blue Wall states; and after the debate, Trump put into play typically safe Democratic states like New Mexico, Minnesota, and Virginia. When Harris became the nominee, she brought all of the six battleground states from 2020 back into play, even making North Carolina competitive. But where are we right now as we head into the final days? Are there any clues from the latest polls or early vote data about Harris’s best path to 270? Current State of Play in the PollingAs of Saturday, according to the New York Times polling average, all seven battleground states are within the margin of error with narrow Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan and narrow Trump leads in the rest of the states. The polling averages have moved in Trump’s direction. Some of this movement is the product of a flood of GOP polls in the last few weeks. However, there have been a series of good polls for Harris in these states over the last few days. Momentum for Harris is rising, particularly in the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Nate Silver’s model shows the movement by state over the last week:... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app |
Older messages
Trump Stumbles to the Finish Line
Saturday, November 2, 2024
Trump won late deciders in 2016 and 2020, things don't look as good this time around ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
If Kamala Harris Win, Here are Three Reasons Why
Friday, November 1, 2024
The polls can't tell us who is going to win, but there are other measures to look at ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
My Conversation with Sarah Longwell about the State of the Race
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Watch now (42 mins) | Our discussion was part of Substack's Election Dialogues series. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Will the Polls Be Wrong Again?
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Some thoughts on whether the polls are underestimating Trump supporters ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
How Trump's Racist Rally Might Affect the Campaign
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Trump is very good at getting attention, not so great at using it once he has it ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
You Might Also Like
And The #1 Handbag Trend For Winter 2025 Will Be...
Friday, November 22, 2024
Stunning. The Zoe Report Daily The Zoe Report 11.21.2024 And The #1 Handbag Trend For Winter 2025 Will Be... (Trends) And The #1 Handbag Trend For Winter 2025 Will Be... Stunning. Read More Demi Moore
RESEND - 3x3: November 21, 2024
Friday, November 22, 2024
I kept thinking this week was Thanksgiving... ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
3x3: November 21, 2024
Friday, November 22, 2024
I kept thinking this week was Thanksgiving... ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
6 Unexpected Household Uses for Dry-Erase Markers
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Green Bubble Chats on iPhone Have a Major Security Issue. The temporary tool we've all been sleeping on. Not displaying correctly? View this newsletter online. TODAY'S FEATURED STORY Six
Stop Everything—Halle Berry Just Rewore Her Most Iconic Naked Dress
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Plus, Dua Lipa's grunge moment, the rise of the "cherry mocha girl," your daily horoscope, and more. Nov. 21, 2024 Bustle Daily Nicholas Alexander Chavez sits in a chair. ENTERTAINMENT
Why People Won’t Shut Up About Raw Milk
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Today in style, self, culture, and power. The Cut November 21, 2024 HEALTH Why People Won't Shut Up About Raw Milk Everything you need to know. Photo-Illustration: The Cut; Photos: Getty No one on
It’s Not Them. It’s You.
Thursday, November 21, 2024
The importance of finding your North Star. Especially now. OHF WEEKLY It's Not Them. It's You. The importance of finding your North Star. Especially now. By Clay Rivers • 21 Nov 2024 View in
"What is upon us will require mercy"
Thursday, November 21, 2024
November 21, 2024 national book award Congratulations to Lena Khalaf Tuffaha, winner of the 2024 National Book Award in Poetry. Read poems from Something About Living (University of Akron Press, 2024):
Bats
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Bats Edith Zimmerman Nov 21 READ IN APP Archive | Etsy | About me Like Comment Restack © 2024 Edith Zimmerman New York State Unsubscribe Get the app Start
Not So Thrifty
Thursday, November 21, 2024
An interesting store in an interesting place ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏