The State of the Race with Two Days to Go
The State of the Race with Two Days to GoA run down of the polls, the early vote data, and best paths to 270.This is it. We are at the end. That notion is equal parts exhilarating and nauseating. The election is here, and we will know who won (hopefully) in the next few days. Throughout this campaign — even when Joe Biden was the nominee — we have been looking at the electoral map to see the best path to 270. In the Biden era, the map was very scary. His only path was winning the Blue Wall states; and after the debate, Trump put into play typically safe Democratic states like New Mexico, Minnesota, and Virginia. When Harris became the nominee, she brought all of the six battleground states from 2020 back into play, even making North Carolina competitive. But where are we right now as we head into the final days? Are there any clues from the latest polls or early vote data about Harris’s best path to 270? Current State of Play in the PollingAs of Saturday, according to the New York Times polling average, all seven battleground states are within the margin of error with narrow Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan and narrow Trump leads in the rest of the states. The polling averages have moved in Trump’s direction. Some of this movement is the product of a flood of GOP polls in the last few weeks. However, there have been a series of good polls for Harris in these states over the last few days. Momentum for Harris is rising, particularly in the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Nate Silver’s model shows the movement by state over the last week:... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app |
Older messages
Trump Stumbles to the Finish Line
Saturday, November 2, 2024
Trump won late deciders in 2016 and 2020, things don't look as good this time around ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
If Kamala Harris Win, Here are Three Reasons Why
Friday, November 1, 2024
The polls can't tell us who is going to win, but there are other measures to look at ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
My Conversation with Sarah Longwell about the State of the Race
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Watch now (42 mins) | Our discussion was part of Substack's Election Dialogues series. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Will the Polls Be Wrong Again?
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Some thoughts on whether the polls are underestimating Trump supporters ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
How Trump's Racist Rally Might Affect the Campaign
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Trump is very good at getting attention, not so great at using it once he has it ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
You Might Also Like
Kim Kardashian Stunned In Princess Diana’s Necklace On The Red Carpet
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
The LACMA Art + Film Gala looks were epic. The Zoe Report Daily The Zoe Report 11.4.2024 As soon as the calendar switches over to September, I usually go all in on the autumnal vibes. That means
5 Reasons to Ditch Your Bank and Join a Credit Union
Monday, November 4, 2024
My Favorite Apple Intelligence Feature Is Notification Management. A credit union is better for your bottom line and offers you something banks never will: A voice. Not displaying correctly? View this
Coal CEOs are the new crypto bros
Monday, November 4, 2024
Alliance Resource Partners isn't just mining coal anymore. It's also mining Bitcoin. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Kim Kardashian Wore Princess Diana’s $200K Necklace With A Plunging Gown
Monday, November 4, 2024
Plus, Dolly Parton's beauty routine, Jennifer Lawrence's fave sneakers, your horoscope, & more. Nov. 4, 2024 Bustle Daily Procedurals Are Perfect Comfort TV For Election Anxiety Procedurals
‘I’m a Gay, Devout Muslim Man. How Can I Find Love Without Betraying My Family?’
Monday, November 4, 2024
Today in style, self, culture, and power. The Cut November 4, 2024 ESTHER CALLING 'I'm a Gay, Devout Muslim Man. How Can I Find Love Without Betraying My Family?' Esther Perel talks to this
15 Can't Miss Holiday Gift Ideas From the Editors of Men's Health
Monday, November 4, 2024
Men's Health Shop logo FREE SHIPPING ON ORDERS $50+ View in Browser Men's Health Holiday Gift Picks rotating Men's Health Editors Solve Your Shopping Dilemmas Holiday shopping doesn't
MIDDI Rewind: Let It Glow
Monday, November 4, 2024
Three buys to add sparkle, shine and ambiance to your holiday celebrations. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Boulder
Monday, November 4, 2024
Visiting my mom in Maine ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Density And Specialization
Monday, November 4, 2024
Businesses, products, and services come after people ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
How Kamala Harris Made 2024 a Real Race
Monday, November 4, 2024
Trump was headed toward an easy win before Harris stepped in ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏