Morning Brew - ☕ Seat at the table

The prediction markets were right...
November 07, 2024 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

Frontieras

Good morning. Anyone feeling nostalgic for those campaign text messages?

—Matty Merritt, Cassandra Cassidy, Molly Liebergall, Holly Van Leuven, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

18,983.47

S&P

5,929.04

Dow

43,729.93

10-Year

4.426%

Bitcoin

$75,886.97

Tesla

$288.53

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks soared to record highs following news of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election. Shares of companies associated with the president-elect or those in his close orbit, like Tesla, did particularly well. Experts still caution that there could be market volatility as investors fully digest what Trump’s win means for various sectors.
 

POLITICS

Elon Trump wins the election

Elon Musk speaking at Trump rally Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The world’s richest man is set up to have an incredibly fruitful four years. Elon Musk spent nearly $130 million through his political action committee (PAC) to help elect Donald Trump and other Republicans this election cycle. In return, Trump has promised him a seat at the table.

The 2024 presidential campaign was the most expensive election in history, and no one showed up more than Musk, who formed his America PAC earlier this year and then publicly endorsed the GOP contender after he was shot at a Pennsylvania rally in July.

  • With control of X, Musk was able to flood the social site with disinformation about popular Republican talking points like election fraud and immigration.
  • The America PAC also funded Democrat impersonation campaigns on Facebook and through texts designed to target voters with messages that might persuade them to vote against Harris, according to 404 Media.

How could Musk cash in?

The biggest Musk win could come from the 47th president giving him unfettered access to regulatory bodies. Both Trump and Musk said during campaign stops that the tech mogul would be a government cost cutter in the second Trump administration. Without mentioning which specific departments he would trim funding for, Musk has promised he would cut $2 trillion from the federal budget.

Musk isn’t shy about advocating for his interests in Washington. He has said point blank that he would push to get autonomous vehicles on the road, a technology Tesla has invested heavily in. SpaceX already has government contracts worth more than $15 billion collectively, but Musk has complained a lot online about the Federal Aviation Administration’s limits on the company. He also owns X and Neuralink, which have received scrutiny from the FTC and the FDA, respectively.

There may be trouble ahead. While Trump has promised to put heavy tariffs on China, Tesla relies on its Shanghai factory for a significant percentage of its EV deliveries, and the new levies would hurt the car company’s bottom line. But the tariffs could also obliterate Tesla’s cheaper Chinese EV rivals, like BYD.—MM

   

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

vice president kamala harris waves from a stage Angela Weiss/Getty Images

Kamala Harris conceded to Donald Trump. The vice president’s concession speech, delivered yesterday afternoon at Howard University in Washington, DC, hit both grateful and somber notes. She expressed optimism for the future, saying, “The light of America’s promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting.” The Democratic nominee obliquely referenced the challenges she faced, reminding listeners that she had just 107 days to make her case to the American people and that she succeeded in at least one area where President-elect Trump failed: As she conceded, she said, “A fundamental principle of American democracy is that when we lose an election, we accept the results. That principle, as much as any other, distinguishes democracy from monarchy and tyranny, and anyone who seeks the public trust must honor it.”

World leaders reacted to the election. Messages of support for President-elect Donald Trump streamed in from around the globe on Wednesday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer were among the first to congratulate Trump on winning a second term in the White House, with the former saying the victory was “history’s greatest comeback.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that President Vladimir Putin was not planning to call Trump and congratulate him, saying, “We are talking about an unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state.” However, the Russian news outlet Verstka said that Putin congratulated the president-elect through “mutual friends.” President Biden also congratulated Trump and invited him to a meeting at the White House.

Business leaders shared their feelings. Elon Musk, David Sacks, Marc Andreessen, Bill Ackman, and many of the president-elect’s other paladins were predictably effervescent yesterday as they celebrated his win on X. Jeff Bezos sent a glowing show of support, posting, “Big congratulations to our 45th and now 47th President on an extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory.” Bezos has only tweeted twice since 2023, both times to praise Trump. Some of the president-elect’s opponents also sent messages of support: Mark Cuban congratulated Trump, saying, “You won fair and square.” Andrew Yang, a tech entrepreneur who ran in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, said, “Defending democracy means accepting election results that don’t go your way. Congrats to Donald Trump—I hope that he brings people and the country together.”—HVL

GOVERNMENT

Just how pro-business is the president-elect?

Illustration of Google logo, Lina Khan, and TikTok logo Illustration: Francis Scialabba, Photos: Getty Images

Now that former President Trump has won the election, major government regulators are preparing to pack their staplers in a sad cardboard box as he pushes out antitrust champions and crypto-skeptics in favor of more hands-off officials.

What does it mean? Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan will “be fired soon,” according to a post from Elon Musk, which is good news for major corporations that have been holding off on mergers and acquisitions under Khan. More good news for companies:

  • TikTok is likely to stay. Executives at the company believe that the Trump Department of Justice will choose not to enforce a ban on the app.
  • Crypto is likely to boom. Trump has committed to firing Gary Gensler, the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission and a notoriously adamant crypto adversary.

Hedge your bets: While a change-up in the regulatory rankings may seem like it bodes well for Big Tech, it’s not a given. The FTC, under Trump’s last administration, sued Google for acting as a search monopoly, a case that set the stage for the DOJ’s ruling against the tech giant this year. And based on deals blocked during the first Trump term, his impact on investment banker bonuses is too early to call.—CC

   

Together With Indacloud

Indacloud

ELECTION 2024

The prediction markets were right

Hand of cards Illustration: Francis Scialabba, Photo: Skynesher/Getty Images

Turns out the gamblers had a better handle on the election outcome than some of the most respected pollsters in the country.

Here’s their prize: Thousands of winners are waiting on a combined payout of up to $446 million from prediction betting sites Polymarket and Kalshi. They were the most downloaded free apps on the Apple App Store yesterday as people tried to place some last-minute bets before the race was officially called.

  • Kalshi, which an appeals court cleared for US-based election betting last month, recorded 28,000 bets on Vice President Kamala Harris winning and 40,000 on President-elect Donald Trump.
  • Peter Thiel-backed Polymarket, which only serves users outside the US, didn’t disclose its bet count, but it’s estimated to hold the majority of the purse: $287 million.

The biggest winner is…a French trader known as the Polymarket “whale,” who is sitting on $48 million in profits from his hefty Trump bets.

Nobody saw this part coming: Trump gained the majority of the popular vote—making him the first Republican candidate to do so in 20 years—but the prediction markets didn’t once give him more than a 43% chance of winning it before Election Day, Axios reported.—ML

   

STAT

Prime number: $49.7 million in outstanding gift cards

a TGI Friday's sign on a building Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

TGI Friday’s gift cards are now a riskier asset than crypto. In its first bankruptcy hearing on Monday, the faltering potato skin purveyor heard from franchisees who expressed concern that they would be on the hook to honor gift cards when corporate runs out of dough.

Reuters reported that TGI Friday’s has $49.7 million in outstanding customer gift cards and just $5.9 million cash on hand, which it’s borrowing to aid the restructuring process. The outstanding gift cards, which in theory don’t expire, are 21 years old in some cases. And if you’ve got one in a drawer, “Go use it, otherwise, you could end up in line for repayment behind a bunch of other creditors,” said John Bringardner of Debtwire. In that case, he added, gift card holders were likely to get just pennies on the dollar.—HVL

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • Super Micro said that an independent investigation found no evidence of fraud or misconduct after Ernst & Young resigned as its auditor late last month.
  • Hurricane Rafael made landfall on Cuba as a Category 3 storm and knocked out the power grid again.
  • Spirit AeroSystems, a major Boeing supplier, said it might not be able to survive the financial damage sustained by the machinists strike.
  • Henry Kissinger requested a monument of himself in Arlington National Cemetery (but he’s not getting one).
  • Google accidentally leaked—then removed—its rumored AI web-browsing agent, Jarvis.

RECS

To do list Thursday

Wear: Casual sneakers that look chic without trying too hard.**

Become a bookseller: Bookstores in Japan let anyone rent a shelf to sell new and used tomes.

Learn a little bit: Highbrow lets you learn skills with daily five-minute lessons delivered by email.

 Start shopping: Oprah’s Favorite Things 2024 list dropped.

Tour the underworld: This site sends you on a journey down the River Styx.

Tap into it: Transforming coal into hydrogen and other byproducts is a $2.1t energy opportunity. Become a Frontieras shareholder as they lead the way.*

*A message from our sponsor.

**This is a product recommendation from our writers. When you buy through this link, Morning Brew may earn a commission.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew Mini: Today’s Mini is a little bit bigger than usual—perfect to knock out during your lunch break or your morning trip to the bathroom. Play it here.

Three Headlines and a Lie

Three of these headlines are real and one is faker than a social post that makes you feel good right now. Can you spot the odd one out?

  1. An animal shelter was gifted 500 gallons of strawberry milk
  2. The Vatican’s anime mascot is now an AI porn sensation
  3. Raccoon busts through ceiling at LaGuardia Airport next to Spirit Airlines gate
  4. I went on a girls’ trip — and bonded with three feral dogs instead

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ANSWER

We made up the one about the strawberry milk.

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: paladins, meaning “leading champions of a cause.” Thanks to Kate from Harrisburg, PA, for the supportive suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

✢ A Note From Frontieras

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