The Conversation - PA’s red wave explained

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Pennsylvania, my home state, was the most coveted battleground in the 2024 election. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris visited a combined 31 times. Harris threw a huge, star-studded party in Philadelphia on Monday night, after she held a rally earlier that day in Pittsburgh.

In the end, Trump won, and although the final tallies aren’t in, it looks like he has more than doubled his margin of victory in the Keystone State compared with 2016, and also beat Joe Biden’s margin of victory in 2020.

Daniel Mallinson, public policy professor at Penn State Harrisburg and a lifelong Pennsylvanian, writes that a few key counties across the state can help explain why Pennsylvania voters – and U.S. voters more broadly – shifted toward Trump.

Part of the story comes down to lower-than-expected voter turnout in Philly, he says, but it also has to do with bellwether counties like Erie and Bucks flipping red, as well as a growing number of Latino voters, who showed strong support for Trump, in the state’s old industrial steel towns.

“Pennsylvania will remain a swing state in 2028,” Mallinson concludes. “But Democrats will need a more compelling message, not just for the white working class, but also for working-class Latinos and African Americans in these key counties.”

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Kate Kilpatrick

Philadelphia Editor

People gather at McGillin’s Olde Ale House in Philadelphia as election results trickle in. Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images

How Trump won Pennsylvania − and what the numbers from key counties show about the future of a pivotal swing state

Daniel J. Mallinson, Penn State

Philly turnout underwhelms, steel country sides with Trump, and Erie County keeps its bellwether status.

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