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The Space Investor - 🚀 SpaceX Seeks $250B Valuation

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The Space Scoop
Week Ended 11.15.2024
Happy Friday! What a week. From earnings reports and their stock reactions to capital raises of prominent startups to AST and Blue Origin teaming up, it was a doozy. Lets dive in.

Market Max-Q
Forward Forward

Top Stories
1) SpaceX is eyeing new funding and a valuation set to reach ~$250 billion.
  • A report from the Financial Times cites sources familiar with the discussions, noting that Elon Musk's company is preparing to launch a tender offer in December to sell existing shares at ~$135 per share, leading to valuation increase of +$40B to $250B.
     
  • This +19% increase is up from $210B during May 2024's last tender offer and is riding the successful fifth launch of Starship with the sixth launch looming for next week.
     
  • This news also follows COO Gwynne Shotwell's comments earlier today that she "wouldn't be surprised if the company conducted 400 launches of Starship over the next four years."

2) On Wednesday, Spire ($SPIR) announced a strategic business realignment.
  • The space-based data, analytics and space services provider announced the following initiatives: 
    • The sale of its Maritime business to Kpler for ~$241M
    • A shift in focus on data analytics & radio frequency geolocation solution offerings
       
  • The Company intends to use the proceeds of the business sale "to retire all outstanding debt and invest in near-term growth opportunities."
     
  • This seems like the right next steps for SPIR following a few months of accounting reviews and delayed reported financials. Markets agreed as shares finished the week +25%.

3) Q3 earnings continued with seven companies reporting. Highlights include: 
  • $SATS
    • Cash & Equivalents: $675M
    • Revenue: $4B, -5% YoY
    • Net Income: $(142)M vs. $(138)M YoY
    • OIBDA: $317M, -13% YoY
    • Shares: -13%
       
  • $RKLB
    • Cash & Equivalents: $443M
    • Revenue: $105M, +55% YoY
    • Net Loss: $(52)M vs. $(41)M
    • Adj. EBITDA: $(31)M vs. $(16)M
    • Backlog: $1B
    • Signed multi-launch contract for Neutron
    • Shares: +29%
       
  • $TSAT
    • Cash & Equivalents: $1B
    • Revenue: $138M, -21% YoY
    • Net Income: $68M vs. $(4)M YoY
    • Adj. EBITDA: $96M, -28% YoY
    • Backlog: $1.1B
    • Shares: +5%
       
  • $LUNR
    • Cash & Equivalents: $90M
    • Revenue: $59M, +359% YoY
    • Net Income: $(80)M vs $14M
    • Adj. EBITDA: $(7)M vs. $(22)M
    • Contracted Backlog: $316M
    • IM-2 mission targeting February launch window
    • Shares: -13%
       
  • $ASTS
    • Cash & Equivalents: $519M
    • Revenue: $1.1M vs. $0 YoY
    • OpEx:  $67M, +4% YoY
    • Gross Capitalized Costs: $374M 
    • Net Loss: $(172)M vs. $(21)M
    • Shares: -6%
       
  • $SIDU
    • Cash & Equivalents: $1M
    • Revenue: $2M, +90% YoY
    • Net Loss: $(4)M, flat YoY
    • Adj. EBITDA: $(3)M vs. $(4)M
    • Shares: -6%
       
  • $MDA
    • Cash & Receivables: $283M
    • Revenue: $283M, +38% YoY
    • Net Income: $30M, +217% YoY
    • Adj. EBITDA: $56M, +30% YoY
    • Backlog: $4.6B, +49% YoY
    • Shares: -5%

In Other News
Firefly Raises $175M Series D Round (Bloomberg)
The aerospace startup's oversubscribed round leads to a valuation over $2B and a planned Alpha rocket launch sometime early 2025. The round was led by RPM Ventures, its first space investment, with participation from GiantLeap Capital and Human Element.

Starfish Space Raises $29M in Funding (Company)
The additional capital will enable satellite servicing spacecraft startup to complete the development of its first three Otter servicing vehicles. The round was led by Shield Capital, with participation from new investors Point72 Ventures, Booz Allen Ventures, Aero X Ventures, Trousdale Ventures and TRAC VC.

Ursa Space Raises $10M in Venture Debt (Company)
The satellite intelligence company capital raised a venture loan facility from the specialty finance company Horizon Technology Finance “for general growth and working capital purposes.”

DISH DirecTV Deal on Shaky Waters (CNBC)
DirecTV will terminate its deal for DISH assets from EchoStar ($SATS) unless the proposed debt swap is resolved per bondholders refusing to take a haircut on the entity’s debt. “Given the outcome of the EchoStar exchange, DirecTV will have no choice but to terminate the acquisition of Dish by midnight on November 22nd.” 

ABL Pivots Its Business Model (X)
The aerospace startup, in a message from its CEO, will now exit the commercial launch market and shift its focus to missile defense. This follows a RS1 flight anomalies in January 2023 and July 2024. Co-founder Dan Piemont cited diminishing opportunities in the launch industry and geopolitical tensions as key factors behind the decision.

Chart of the Week
2024's Hot Space Stocks: Fueled by a great third quarter and a post-election surge, shares of a handful of space SPACs have really taken off this year, rewarding investors who do recall 2022-2023 days.. Intuitive Machines ($LUNR) leads the pack at +426%, followed by AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) up +399%. Rocket Lab ($RKLB) and Redwire ($RDW) trail (not so far) behind at +257% and +251%. 

Let's see how the remaining 1.5 months of 2024 pan out and whether these names can add or hang onto their major gains.

Links
• EchoStar ($SATS) Announces Successful Completion of Various Transformative Strategic Transactions

• Momentus ($MNTS) Receives HALO Prototype Order Contract From SDA

• Sidus ($SIDU) Selected To Exclusively Build Lonestar’s Lunar Data Storage Spacecraft Fleet

• BlackSky ($BKSY) Acquires Remaining LeoStella J.V. Stake for an Undisclosed Amount

• Rocket Lab ($RKLB) Granted AFRL Award To Showcase with Archimedes Engineering

• Lockheed Martin ($LMT) & Anduril Join Forces To Successfully Detect and Track Drone Threats

• Planet ($PL) Expands Contract With Partner Abelio

• AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) Announces Launch Services Agreement With Blue Origin

• Sidus ($SIDU) Announces Closing of $7M Public Offering

• Intuitive Machines ($LUNR) Unveils Moon RACER Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV)

Opinion
• October 2024 Space Stock Review

• Rocket Lab ($RKLB) CEO on CNBC Discussing Business Growth, Trump’s Policies and Elon Musk

• Rocket Lab’s ($RKLB) Q3 Earnings: Inflection Quarter

• Virgin Galactic ($SPCE): Perfect Execution Is the Only Way To Survive

• Planet Labs ($PL): Investor Optimism Despite Soft Fundamentals

• AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS): Growing Into Its Valuation
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