During his Joint Address to Congress, Trump glanced over the tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada that had gone into effect earlier that day. The tariffs shook the global financial markets — sparking a massive two-day drop in the Dow Jones and raising concerns about the overall U.S. economy. American businesses and consumers expressed genuine concern about higher prices on everything from food, fuel, electronics, and housing.

Since taking office, Trump has done so many profoundly damaging and dangerous things, but the tariffs pose the most significant political impact. Higher prices have been the dominant issue for the last few years and concerns aren’t going anywhere. Instead of fighting to lower prices, Trump raised costs. This was his decision and his decision alone. Any fair-minded analyst will call nonsense. No one understands why Trump is complaining about fentanyl coming across the border from Canada when almost all of it crosses the southern border.

Unlike inflation under Biden, a global problem that extended far beyond any policy choice, Trump owns these price increases. He is singularly responsible.

Last month, I wrote a messaging guide for people talking to their friends and family about the tariffs against Canada and Mexico. In exchange for fig leaf concessions, Trump backed off those tariffs during the weekend. While it's possible that Trump could once again back down in the face of economic and political pressure, we may also be at the beginning of a protracted trade war with significant impacts on the broader economy and families’ finances.

Since my last post, the political environment has shifted. Trump’s approval rating has dropped, and concerns about the economy have risen. Data on public sentiment and the best messages have also emerged.

Trump starts at a deficit on tariffs, but he has arguments at his disposal and a much more powerful megaphone to make them. Democrats can win the argument, but how we frame the issue matters… a lot.

This post is part of a series about the various strategies and tactics Democrats — from leadership down to activists — can employ to make Trump more unpopular. Sign up here if you want to follow along and participate in the conversation.

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How the Public Views the Tariffs

A few takeaways from the recent polling:

1. The Public is Souring on the Polls: Americans never shared Trump’s love for tariffs. Even though he talked about them incessantly during his campaign, tariffs never took hold with the public. Now the prospect is real, and sentiment has plunged. In Navigator Research polling, the number of Americans who support tariffs has dropped eight points.
   The dip is particularly acute among several key swing groups — Hispanic voters and people who voted for Trump, but do not strongly approve of him. Even about a quarter of GOPers don’t like the tariffs.
   

2. People Think Tariffs Will Raise Prices: Voters of all stripes — even Republicans — think that tariffs will raise their prices. An Elon University poll (no relation to Musk) found that 80% of voters expected Trump’s tariffs to increase prices.

3. Tariffs on China are More Popular Than Those on Mexico and Canada: A Morning Consult poll found that 46% of voters support the tariffs on China while 48% oppose the ones on Mexico and Canada. Other testing has shown similar results and it makes sense. People view China as an adversary and Mexico and Canada as our allies.

4. Prior to the Tariffs, People Thought Costs Were Rising: Some dismissed the political danger of Trump by pointing to the limited backlash to the tariffs Trump imposed in his first term. But it’s an entirely different situation. First, Trump bailed out the farmers most affected. Second, the economy was humming (Thanks, Obama!) and prices were low at the time. These tariffs come after several years of inflation. Prices are already high. The Navigator poll shows that people believe costs are still rising.
   

Framing Matters

Despite all of the above, Trump can win the tariff argument. The New York Times analyzed all of the polling on tariffs. The key finding is that support for tariffs goes up significantly when framed as an effort to protect American jobs or bring industries back to America. When Trump aligns tariffs with his America First agenda, he can achieve majority support.

However, when tariffs are framed as taxes, opposition grows. Blue Rose Research, a Democratic firm, tested a bunch of messages and found the following to be the most effective:

“Tariffs effectively are a national sales tax, increasing costs for American consumers and raising inflation. Middle class and working Americans will face higher prices on everyday items like electronics, clothing, and food, making it harder to support their families.”

This is a substantively correct description. Tariffs are a tax increase, but Trump’s large megaphone and army of media allies will amplify his contradicting message. If we don’t set the terms of the debate, we will lose the argument.

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