Consumer confidence took a sharp drop in February, and as uncertainty around consumer behavior—and what news regarding tariffs and other issues each day will bring—abounds, it’s tough to be confident in what that decline could indicate about future consumer spending.

As measured by the Conference Board, consumer confidence plummeted seven points in February to 98.3, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. It marked the third consecutive month of drops, as consumers became more pessimistic about the labor market, future business conditions, and income, citing inflated prices, trade and tariffs, and the Trump administration’s policies as concerns, Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. Consumer sentiment, a similar metric measured by the University of Michigan, dropped 5% in February, and further plummeted 11% in March, the lowest since November 2022, with consumers citing the same concerns.

Historically, these consumer metrics, measured for over 50 years, have been recognized as a barometer for consumer spending, often dipping or rising in tandem. But this confidence drop is different from those in the past; it’s not corresponding with a worse economy as much as inflation and the broader political climate, Joe Schmitt, managing director and co-lead of the Retail Performance Improvement practice at BRG, told Retail Brew, and wallets of consumer groups driving the most spending are largely full, Tamara Charm, partner at Agile Consumer Insights at McKinsey, noted. So what could the confidence drop tell retailers about changing spending patterns?

Keep reading here.—EC

As the drumbeat of backlash against Target for backtracking on DEI continues, including a 40-day boycott against it spearheaded by Black faith leaders that began March 3, foot traffic fell at Target for the sixth consecutive week, according to data from Placer.ai.

For the week the boycott started, foot traffic fell 6.8% YoY at Target, worse than the 4.7% it fell the week before.

Target, which championed racial justice and social justice in recent years before giving in to the Trump administration’s demand that companies dismantle their DEI programs, is seeing traffic drop more precipitously than other companies that capitulated.

Keep reading here.—AAN

It’s St. Patrick’s Day, and your local retailers are likely festooned with glossy green decorations. The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts consumers will spend $7 billion on a combination of beverages, clothing, and holiday-themed food. The industry organization said the holiday has grown in recent years, with 61% of consumers planning to celebrate and spend an average of $44 per person.

Here’s what else is going on in retail this week:

In data: The Census Bureau is releasing its monthly retail sales data for February on Monday. Sales were down 0.9% from the previous month in January, their biggest drop in two years, but were still up 4.2% from the year before. NRF blamed the dip on a mix of harsh winter weather and falling consumer confidence due to tariff concerns, unemployment, and policy uncertainty.

Keep reading here.—AV