Can the Senate prevent a government shutdown?

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Today's read: 13 minutes.

Passing the mic.

Tomorrow, we’re going to open up the mailbag and answer your questions from the past few months. We’ll be addressing not just the Trump administration, but also questions about how Tangle works, cryptocurrency, Gaza, Social Security, and more. Then, we’re giving some readers the last word on a few issues. This will be our first mailbag since Executive Editor Isaac Saul returned from paternity leave, and we think you’ll find this edition to be a captivating read.

Quick hits.

1. Russia said it is awaiting further details from the United States on a proposed 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine and would take a position on the plan after receiving the information. (The comments) Separately, the Russian military said it is in the final stages of ousting Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, which Ukraine had partially seized earlier in the war. (The latest) 
2. Greenland’s Demokraatit Party won a general election victory in a surprise result. The center-right party advocates for gradual independence from Denmark, and party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen has criticized President Donald Trump’s proposal to purchase Greenland. (The election)
3. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is firing 1,029 workers as part of the federal government’s cross-agency workforce reduction. (The layoffs) Separately, the Department of Agriculture paused funding for the University of Maine System, a network of eight public colleges in the state, while it investigates the schools for potential Title IX and Title VI violations. (The pause)
4. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced it arrested over 32,000 unauthorized migrants in the first 50 days of President Trump’s second term. According to ICE, the arrestees included 14,000 convicted criminals, 9,800 migrants with pending criminal charges, 1,155 suspected gang members, and 44 foreign fugitives. (The numbers)
5. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) announced that she will not seek reelection in 2026. (The announcement)

Today's topic.

The budget resolution and potential government shutdown. On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution to fund the government through September 30 in a 217–213 vote. The spending package would extend much of current federal funding until the end of the fiscal year, with a $6 billion increase in defense spending and a $13 billion decrease in nondefense spending. The bill passed mostly along party lines, with Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) joining Republicans to vote in favor and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) joining Democrats in dissent. Now, the bill moves to the Senate, where it must garner 60 votes in order to pass by Friday to avert a government shutdown. 

Refresher: Continuing resolutions (CR) are temporary spending bills that fund the federal government when Congress fails to pass regular appropriations bills. They continue existing appropriations at roughly the same levels as the previous fiscal year for a set amount of time. 

The CR is the first spending bill passed by the House without Democratic support since Republicans won a majority in 2022. To deliver the bill without the opposition party, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) promised future cuts to the federal government and made a last-minute concession not to increase Special Immigrant Visas for Afghan soldiers who fought alongside U.S. troops. Speaker Johnson also involved members of Congress who had been critical of past CRs, Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and members of the House Freedom Caucus (HFC), in the drafting process from the beginning. “It’s much easier to be flexible within the parameters of our own core principles when we’ve been deeply involved in crafting the legislation,” said HFC member Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA). 

President Donald Trump also supported the bill. The day before the House vote, President Trump issued a warning to House Republicans by threatening Republican holdout Massie on Truth Social, writing that “he should be primaried.” 

“I don’t know how to say this without cussing,” Massie said. “If they thought I had no Fs to give before, I definitely have no Fs to give now.”

Republicans hold a 53–47 majority in the Senate, and with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) promising to oppose the bill, they must win over eight Democratic Senators to extend government funding and prevent a shutdown. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has indicated he would vote for the bill, but other Senate Democrats have criticized the resolution for not including protections against funding cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency. 

On Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Democrats would vote against the CR, arguing instead for a one-month funding bill to give the parties more time to negotiate.

Below, we’ll get into what the left and right are saying about the continuing resolution and potential government shutdown. Then, I’ll give my take.

What the left is saying.

• The left opposes the CR, arguing it weakens Congress’s ability to check the executive branch. 
• Some say Democrats should not help Republicans avoid a shutdown.
• Others say Senate Democrats can stand up to Trump by blocking the bill.

In MSNBC, Hayes Brown wrote “Senate Democrats need to hold strong against Trump's purse snatching.”

“Contrary to what House Republicans insisted while defending the 99-page bill… the measure isn’t by any means a simple resolution to keep the government open. Instead, the bill manages to give away Congress’ power to President Donald Trump both explicitly and implicitly, throwing the balance of powers even further out of whack,” Brown said. “In trying to rally archconservative House Republicans, who normally are loath to support continuing resolutions, Vice President JD Vance reportedly told members that the White House would simply not follow the bill’s spending instructions.”

“Pushing members of Congress to publicly support a bill the White House promises not to follow is a gross bait-and-switch that transforms appropriations from law into mere guidance. Democrats want to forestall that with a provision that asserts the power of the purse in a way that would make it hard for courts that hear lawsuits over DOGE’s cuts to ignore,” Brown wrote. “It’s now up to Senate Democrats to hold the line… they should explain to the American people that, as the Constitution makes clear, the decision on how to spend their tax dollars should remain with the Congress they’ve elected.”

In Newsweek, Nicholas Creel argued “Democrats should not help Republicans avert a shutdown.”

“The fundamental reality is that legislative dealmaking has become meaningless under this administration. What value could Republican concessions possibly have if Trump can simply override them through executive decree? The answer is none. The entire exercise would only serve to give a veneer of legitimacy to a system that has lost its constitutional moorings. The only reasonable choice Democrats have left in this process is to not engage in the charade at all.”

“Some will argue this stance risks economic chaos. They're right. However, engaging in budget negotiations would only provide cover for continued constitutional violations that are themselves likely to upend the economy over the long-term,” Creel said. “Should Democrats help pass a budget that they know Trump will feel free to ignore, they will be taking a degree of ownership in the fallout his illegal actions ultimately bring. The better path is to let the consequences of any economic calamity fall squarely where they belong—on the shoulders of the Republican congressional majority that is enabling this situation.”

In The American Prospect, David Dayen said Senate Democrats’ choice is “block the Republican spending bill or dissolve Congress.”

“It is somewhat remarkable that dozens of House Republicans who have vowed never to pass stopgap bills to fund the government in their political careers caved on this one. But that’s why I put ‘continuing resolution’ in quotes. In reality, this is a hastily arranged partisan Republican budget that achieves much of their anti-government, anti-immigrant, pro-military agenda while paving the way for Trump to nullify whatever spending he deems unworthy,” Dayen wrote. “Without the luxury of Republicans falling apart, Democrats in the Senate need to decide whether to prevent a dangerous and harmful budget that shrinks the power of Congress in the government.”

“Some Democrats seem to be consumed with Senate brain, worried that they would be blamed for a government shutdown. What they’re not understanding is that the Musk-Trump assault on government has created a kind of permanent government shutdown, where so-called nonessential personnel are fired and operations are deeply circumscribed. Why would any Democrat sign on to a bill making that state of affairs even more likely, out of fear of the same government shutdown that the Trump administration is locking into place anyway?”

What the right is saying.

• The right mostly supports the CR, framing it as a necessary move to advance President Trump’s agenda.
• Some argue Democrats would be unwise to block the bill.
• Others worry the bill will enable out-of-control executive power. 

In The Federalist, Eric Teetsel said “a continuing resolution is the best way to propel Trump’s agenda right now.”

“At first glance, a CR may seem extra disappointing and irresponsible in this case. After all, we are talking about continuing the fiscal year 2024 spending levels established under the Biden-Harris administration,” Teetsel wrote. “But these are unusual times. The normal rules of policy and politics don’t apply. First, and most importantly, President Trump is in charge… Whether through reprogramming authorities, a rescission package, or impoundment, the White House is ready to ensure its efforts to gut the woke and weaponized deep state are durable and lasting.”

“Second, the only realistic alternatives to a ‘clean’ CR are a CR-plus or omnibus appropriations package. Either option could only be passed with Democrat support, which means they would be loaded up with expensive nonsense,” Teetsel said. “Third, Congress must move past the March 14 funding deadline to focus on reconciliation. Once the House passes a budget resolution, which it did on Feb. 25, a reconciliation process can move forward that will include money for border security and immigration law enforcement, extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, new tax policies such as no taxes on tips, deregulatory changes to unleash domestic oil and natural gas production, and much more.”

In Blaze Media, Christopher Bedford wrote “Democrats think a shutdown will help them. It won’t.”

“Senate Democrats are toying with shutting down the government on Friday. They think they might get a win out of that, but they’re not counting on who’s in charge of what a shutdown means. Just as with their antics at the congressional address last week, they are cruising for trouble,” Bedford said. “Democrats don’t want to fund the president’s government without promises that he’ll curtail Elon Musk and the Departments of Government Efficiency’s cuts to the executive branch. Democrats are tired of losing and see a vote that requires seven or more Democrats to pass as their first real leverage beyond waving signs (and canes). It’s not the leverage they think it is.”

“While D.C. is no stranger to shutdowns, they usually come from the right flank of the GOP. That’s turned on its head this time too, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the ranking Democrats on major committees openly musing on a shutdown’s power to disrupt Musk’s cuts to the government. But is that even the case?,” Bedford asked. “The point man for funding during a government shutdown is Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, a strong proponent of limited government and a chief architect of cutting fat and fraud. Vought and a team of lawyers will largely be calling the shots.”

In Reason, Eric Boehm criticized “the cowardice of Congress.”

“The House of Representatives blocked the most direct pathway for lawmakers to revoke the emergency executive powers Trump used last month to impose tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China,” Boehm wrote. “The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)... is the law that Trump used to slap those new tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico in early February. Under the provisions of IEEPA, Congress is allowed to cancel any presidential action—and those efforts are ‘privileged,’ which means they can be brought directly to the floor without first going through the committee process.”

“The House's new rules say that individual lawmakers can't do that anymore… why do Republicans seem worried about blocking those privileged resolutions? The answer is likely that House Republicans don't want to be put on the spot with an up-or-down vote that would force members to choose between repudiating Trump or supporting his unpopular and irrational tariffs,” Boehm said. “The message from House Republicans (minus Massie) is clear: Trump's executive power over tariffs is not to be challenged, even when there is clearly no emergency and when he's using those powers to jerk the economy around on a daily basis.”

My take.

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• At first blush, this CR seems like yet another spending punt from Republicans.
• The bill is actually much worse, ceding the power of the purse to the executive branch.
• I don’t think Senate Democrats should vote to pass it, but I think they’ll be too worried about shutting down the government to stop it.

When I first saw the news that Republicans were going to push through a CR, my immediate instinct was why wouldn’t Democrats vote for this? 

After all, a continuing resolution — almost by definition — mostly continues the spending from a previous appropriations bill. That means Democrats would ensure the Trump administration starts by largely extending Biden’s budget, and doing so with help from Republicans.

That’s one legitimate lens through which to look at the House’s spending bill. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), the lone Republican to break ranks in the House and one of the few truly principled spending hawks left in the chamber, has been hammering this exact point. 

Massie’s viewpoint has been historically correct. Trump and the GOP are claiming they want to balance the budget, yet they are doing the same thing Republicans have been doing for years now: passing short-term spending deals because they can’t agree as a caucus on the path forward to balancing the budget. It’s a cop out, one they have repeatedly promised not to take — and a promise they’ve repeatedly broken. 

And, with this CR, they’re breaking it again. The House’s stopgap bill actually increases spending by $10 billion from 2024, and is projected to reduce the deficit by just $8 billion (or, 0.02% of the current national debt) over the course of the next 10 years. The larger spending bill House Republicans tried to push a few weeks ago would increase the debt and deficit by trillions of dollars. The latest effort from congressional Republicans appears to be an attempt to offload their fiscal responsibility to DOGE, which simply does not have the constitutional power to fix our spending problems.

That’s not a tinfoil hat theory, either; Republicans said it themselves. “I think for a lot of people back home, they’re wondering, why isn’t this just the same thing that Congress always does?” Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) told The New York Times. “This is how the president has asked us to fight now, so that they can do what they’re doing with DOGE.”

It is still mindboggling to me that this is how the administration is planning to usher in an era of responsible government spending. Consider these numbers from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which show exactly where each $100 you pay in federal taxes actually goes:

$24 to health insurance programs
$21 to Social Security
$13 to defense
$13 to servicing our debt
$8 to benefits for veterans and federal retirees
$7 to economic security programs
$5 to education
$2 to transportation
$1 to natural resources and agriculture
$1 to science and medical research
$1 to law enforcement
$1 to international programs

Since the beginning of the Trump administration, DOGE’s efforts have focused almost exclusively on areas that add up to roughly two dollars and change — and, in many cases, they haven’t actually addressed perpetual spending but simply laid off workers. As we’ve said over and over and over, the only way to actually address our spiraling debt problem is to reform Social Security, Medicare, and defense spending in a lasting way. Republicans say they want to do that but can never agree on a plan, while Democrats mostly propose modest reforms. 

So, should Democrats just vote for this bill to lock in the bulk of their spending priorities and highlight how little Republicans are actually doing to find a long-term solution? Actually, I’m not so sure.

David Dayen (under “What the left is saying”) makes the case better than I could, and his argument rests on two pillars: 1) This bill cuts funding that most Democrats and progressives support. 2) This bill effectively hands the power of the purse over from Congress to the president, and it will further erode the balance of power between the different branches of government.

The second argument is much more salient to me. Trump wants to allow Congress to appropriate funding he never intends to spend, then use that money as a slush fund for whatever he wants, all while allowing the unelected, anonymous, and dishonest bureaucracy that is DOGE to run roughshod through the federal government — cutting all manner of important, bipartisan, and valuable programs without offering any sensible explanations for their decisions (or their mistakes). And, again, he’s doing all that while not actually balancing the budget, the North Star that is supposedly guiding all these decisions. 

To put it differently: I don’t just think Trump’s plan is bad in the immediate term, I think it will do lasting damage to our government by becoming a blueprint for how a president can wrest control of spending from the legislative branch. Ed Kilgore rightly described this as “institutional suicide” by the party controlling the legislative branch. Along the way, the president wants to add billions in spending to the bloated and wasteful military, undo funding for tax enforcement, and cut a $23 billion appropriation to a fund that includes care for veterans exposed to burn pits and other carcinogenic chemicals. Trump promised a balanced budget and a booming economy, and so far I can’t see the path to either based on his actual actions.

Once again, I’m left looking at two parties and wondering what the heck has gone wrong. On one side, Republicans (despite what they’re saying) are now backing another CR that would raise the debt and deficit, but this time they’re also endorsing a reduction of their own spending power. Remember, only a year ago these same Republicans ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) for pushing through a CR, and that was when they didn’t even control the Senate or White House. 

On the other side, we have the feckless Democrats, who I believe will roll over and fold for fear of facing a government shutdown. Insider reporting indicates Senate Dems are scared of what Trump and Musk will do during a shutdown (i.e. which programs they’ll target for furloughs), but if they balk at a shutdown, they’ll be ceding that kind of power to Republicans for at least the next two years — DOGE will get free reign, and Republicans can pass an omnibus bill without any Democratic support. Then, the courts will be the only place where Democrats have much of a chance of slowing this administration down until 2026. So, yes, I think Democrats should stand up and save Republicans from signing away their own power — but I sincerely doubt they will. 

Now every Republican in the House (except one principled Kentuckian) is ceding their stated values out of fealty to Trump, every Republican in the Senate (except one principled Kentuckian) is set to do the same, and Senate Democrats appear ready to toss aside their only bit of power and fade to obscurity because they’re afraid of losing a messaging war over a government shutdown. The result, for the rest of us, is that we’re left hoping DOGE — which can’t even accurately itemize its purported savings — will somehow keep the government functioning while also finding trillions of dollars of savings. 

I gotta say, I’m not feeling hopeful about that.

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Your questions, answered.

Q: You mention aspiring to present a wide range of views on topics, but I’ve yet to see you include perspectives from any libertarian publications or authors. Have you considered including those voices when they differ from the left and right?

—Brett from Phoenix, AZ

Tangle: While we don’t explicitly label perspectives as libertarian, we frequently include writers under “What the right is saying” who hold or espouse libertarian views. In fact, we have one in today’s edition! You’ll regularly see libertarian commentators from Reason, The American Conservative, and other outlets in Tangle; furthermore, Reason’s Jacob Sullum — who often advocates for libertarian positions — penned a guest essay in Tangle last month. 

Maybe you think we should reserve a section in the newsletter for libertarians, rather than categorizing them under “the right.” That’s fair, but we disagree; libertarian principles of small government and low regulation are traditionally right-leaning approaches to governance, so we put them on the right. Furthermore, only a small portion of the perspectives we consider for inclusion are straightforwardly libertarian, so a dedicated section would be difficult to fill routinely.

Grouping them with the right isn’t a perfect solution. Libertarians don’t fit neatly onto the traditional left-right spectrum and many align with progressives on certain social issues, but then again, the left and right themselves aren’t monoliths and contain a lot of natural variance. 

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Under the radar.

The Brazilian state government of Pará is cutting down tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest to build a four-lane highway in the city of Belém for a climate change conference. The 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP30, will focus on a host of climate and sustainability issues and is expected to draw roughly 50,000 attendees to the northern Brazilian city. While the state government and some local businesses say the highway will allow for new economic opportunities, many local residents have expressed concern about the highway’s impact on the environment, wildlife, and agricultural economies in the city. The BBC has the story.

Numbers.

• $1.15 trillion. The U.S. budget deficit through the first five months of FY 2025, $318 billion more than the same period in 2024. 
• $8 billion. The estimated net deficit reduction of the House CR through fiscal year 2034, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
• $66 billion. The estimated reduction in federal revenues between FY 2025 and 2034 due to the IRS funding rescissions included in the House CR. 
• 6. The number of House Republicans who voted for the CR and had not supported any stopgap funding bill since Republicans won the House majority in 2023. 
• 50%. The percentage of Americans who blamed President Donald Trump for the 2018-19 government shutdown, according to a January 2019 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. 
• 37%. The percentage of Americans who blamed Democrats in Congress for the shutdown. 

The extras.

• One year ago today we wrote about Biden’s 2025 budget proposal.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was the ad in the free version for Brad's Deals for special Amazon discounts.
• Nothing to do with politics: Every state’s preferred travel destination (and a head-scratcher from Wyoming).
• Yesterday’s survey: 3,348 readers answered our survey on imposing tariffs on Canada. 88% and 84%, respectively, said the broad tariffs and ones specific to steel and aluminum will be negative. “Your comment about history rhyming is well made. Expansive tariffs proved catastrophic a century ago, and 100 years of increased globalization will only exacerbate the negative effects this "policy" will have, domestically and abroad,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

Sharonda Hunter was 25 weeks pregnant when she lost consciousness while driving in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Video footage shows Hunter’s car drifting slowly across the street, over a curb, and towards a building. A nearby city bus driver, Latanya, saw Hunter’s car drifting and immediately jumped out of the bus and ran towards the car to help. Latanya was able to keep Hunter alert until help arrived, and no one was hurt in the accident. FOX6 has the story.

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