Morning Brew - ☕ Uncertainly ahead

The Fed holds steady, for now...

Good morning, and welcome to the best day of the year: The first day of spring and the start of the first round of the men’s college basketball tournament, aka March Madness.

If you’re the kind of person who Venmoed $20 to five friends without watching a lick of college basketball this season, same. To help you fill out a bracket before the deadline in a few hours, we asked Toby Howell, 2x March Madness pool winner and MBD co-host, for some tips. Toby uses this general blueprint:

  • Avoid teams that play home games at higher elevations (such as New Mexico and Colorado State).
  • Look at the “kill shot” metric, which theorizes that teams that go on and prevent 10–0 scoring runs will outperform.
  • Be mindful of your pool size: The more people in your pool, the riskier you should be (and vice versa).

And when all else fails, just ask ChatGPT.

—Matty Merritt, Molly Liebergall, Sam Klebanov, Abby Rubenstein, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

17,750.79

S&P

5,675.29

Dow

41,964.63

10-Year

4.256%

Bitcoin

$85,531.20

Autodesk

$268.30

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks shot up like Old Faithful yesterday after the Fed affirmed it still plans to cut interest rates twice this year (more on what JPow and friends had to say below). Autodesk rose when activist investor Starboard Value said it planned to start a proxy fight with the software company.
 

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ECONOMY

Jerome Powell

ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP via Getty Images

If the Fed copied our move and instituted a Word of the Day, yesterday’s would have been “uncertainty.” The central bank said it would leave interest rates unchanged, hovering around 4.5%, and that two rate cuts are still on the table at some point this year. But it also said it expects to see slower growth and higher inflation.

On the surface, the Fed’s decision seemed pretty uneventful: The central bank projected two rate cuts for 2025 back in December, and economists didn’t expect one to come yesterday. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the king of “we’ll have to wait and see,” doubled down, highlighting the uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration’s attitudes on trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation.

Declining consumer sentiment and the recent slowdown in growth would typically trigger the Fed to cut interest rates, but…inflation is still stubbornly above its 2% target. So:

  • The Fed lowered its economic growth outlook, saying US GDP would rise at a 1.7% pace this year. That’s down 0.4 percentage points from its projection in December.
  • It also raised inflation projections, expecting it to grow 2.8% this year, up from the 2.5% it predicted at the end of last year. Central bankers still expect inflation to fall in 2026 and 2027, but Powell added that these predictions were still “highly uncertain.”

During President Trump’s first term, tariffs pushed the Fed to cut rates preemptively, but inflation was much lower then. Yesterday, Powell downplayed concerns, noting that inflation caused by tariffs could merely be “transitory.”

More to wait for: The Fed likely wants to understand how proposed government spending cuts impact local economies and where unemployment numbers settle following mass federal government layoffs before it does too much.

The market seemed happy…like the male lead in an outdated romcom who is unable to accept rejection, Wall Street exclusively heard “there’s still a chance.” Markets jumped in response to the continued possibility of two rate cuts this year.—MM

Presented By AT&T Connected Car

WORLD

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Carl Court/Getty Images

Trump proposes US ownership of Ukraine’s nuclear plants on call with Zelensky. A day after speaking to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who agreed to a limited 30-day ceasefire but not a broader halt to the war between Russia and Ukraine, President Trump had what he described as “a very good telephone call” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky, who had previously agreed to the US’ proposed full 30-day truce, signed on to the plan to halt attacks on energy plants offered by Putin—even though both sides had already accused the other of violating it. During their hourlong call, Trump told Zelensky that American ownership of Ukraine’s power plants would be best for security.

Israel sent ground troops back to Gaza. The new ground offensive put troops back in areas in Gaza that Israel had retreated from during the two-month ceasefire with Hamas that Israel broke earlier this week with a series of airstrikes that killed more than 400 people. The Israeli military called the ground operation “targeted,” saying it was aimed at creating a “partial buffer zone” between northern and southern Gaza. The escalation came as thousands of people in Israeli cities protested the return to war, calling instead for a deal ensuring the return of the remaining hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza.

Trump told both Democrats on the FTC “you’re fired.” In firing the two Democratic commissioners on the Federal Trade Commission, which enforces consumer protection and antitrust laws, President Trump likely set the stage for a legal battle. The two axed commissioners, Alvaro Bedoya and Rebecca Kelly Slaughter, both called their firings “illegal” and vowed to sue. However, Republican FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson said he had no doubt the president acted within his “constitutional authority.” Potentially at issue is a 1935 Supreme Court decision that says the president can’t remove a commissioner without good cause. Some, including Slaughter, have questioned what the firings could mean in the future for the Fed’s Jerome Powell, who is protected by the same court decision but has clashed with Trump.—AR

FOOD & BEV

Ben & Jerry's pints

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Cherry Gar…see ya? Ben & Jerry’s said this week that its parent company, Unilever, illegally ousted the ice creamery’s chief executive after he opposed pressure from above to muzzle the company’s core values.

According to the dairymen’s court filing…Unilever removed Ben & Jerry’s CEO Dave Stever without board approval, violating their merger agreement—not for performance reasons, but because of his support for the company’s progressive stances.

Long-standing tension is boiling over. Ben & Jerry’s and Unilever have been quarreling since 2021, when the ice cream company announced it would stop selling pints in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

  • This week’s legal complaint expands on a November lawsuit that accused Unilever of threatening to break up the board and sue members to stop Ben & Jerry’s from voicing support for Palestinian refugees and “a permanent and immediate ceasefire.”
  • Unilever has since blocked the ice cream brand from making a social media post for Black History Month and another one that would have voiced support for the release of Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian Columbia University student currently detained by ICE, the new filing alleges.
  • Ben & Jerry’s also accused Unilever last month of blocking a post about abortion, climate change, and minimum wage because it mentioned President Trump.

Unilever has denied the earlier accusations but has not commented on the more recent ones yet.

Zoom out: Unilever plans to sell Ben & Jerry’s and its other ice cream brands, but no deal has materialized yet. The Ben (Cohen) and Jerry (Greenfield), who co-founded the company, have reportedly expressed interest in buying it back.—ML

Together With tastytrade

ENTERTAINMENT

Netflix

Mario Tama/Getty Images

Netflix took up the sci-fi series Conquest thinking it could become the next Stranger Things, but instead, it got material for its next disgraced executive doc.

This week, federal prosecutors arrested the zero-episode show’s director, Carl Rinsch, and charged him with misusing $11 million of Netflix’s money. He faces 90 years in prison if found guilty of wire fraud, money laundering, and transacting with illicit funds.

  • Prosecutors allege Rinsch plugged cash meant for production into risky stock trades and dogecoin, as well as bougie purchases, including five Rolls Royces and a $390k watch.
  • They claim he also illegally used the funds for his divorce proceedings and even a lawsuit against Netflix.

Tale of a gilded (streaming) age

When Netflix contracted Rinsch in 2018 to make a series about artificial humans that he’d also pitched to its competitors, streaming services were scrambling to grow their content catalogs and subscriber counts. So, although his only claim to fame was the flopped film 47 Ronin, Netflix offered Rinsch extraordinary creative and financial freedom.

But Rinsch behaved erratically and missed production milestones, according to the New York Times. And after Netflix sent him extra funds in 2020, he allegedly transferred $10.5 million to his personal account.

Netflix lost…$55 million on the series, which it eventually abandoned in 2021.—SK

STAT

McNeese State's Amir Khan, the first student manager to get an NIL deal, dances with the team in a viral video.

@College Basketball Content/X

You no longer have to be a freakish college athlete to score an NIL (name, image, and likeness) deal. Just ask Amir Khan of McNeese State, who this week became the first student manager to score an NIL contract. Actually, he scored three: He’ll be a pitchman for Buffalo Wild Wings, TickPick, and Insomnia Cookies.

Khan is no ordinary manager. Along with his standard duties of rebounding during warmups and wiping sweat off the floor, he is a rap legend. Last month, Khan (nicknamed “Aura”) went viral after a video showed him rapping “In and Out” by Lud Foe alongside the team’s players while leading them out of the tunnel, a boombox strapped over his shoulder. You can catch Aura and No. 12 McNeese State take on No. 5 Clemson in the first round today at 3:15pm ET.—NF

Together With Quince

NEWS

  • President Trump is expected to issue an order today calling for the closure of the Department of Education.
  • A jury found Greenpeace liable for actions taken during protests against the Dakota Access oil pipeline and said it should pay pipeline company Energy Transfer more than $650 million in damages.
  • The value of X has reportedly rebounded to the $44 billion Elon Musk paid to buy the social media platform.
  • Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and a political rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was arrested days before he was expected to be named the opposition candidate for the next presidential election.
  • The Trump administration said it would withhold $175 million in federal funds from UPenn for allowing transgender athletes to compete on its women’s teams.
  • The government released more than 63,000 pages of records related to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, but so far, historians haven’t found much new information in them.

RECS

To-do list banner

Play: A board game for people looking to move on from Catan.**

Travel virtually: Make a digital visit to a museum exhibit.

Dance and debate: The best songs by athletes.

Ace a presentation anywhere: The different names for pie charts around the world (yes, the French call it a camembert).

Catch the game everywhere: Celebrate every slam dunk with AT&T Connected Car. Passengers can stream + browse from their favorite device both in and out of the car—so you can celebrate your team’s win anywhere.*

*A message from our sponsor. **This is a product recommendation from our writers. When you buy through this link, Morning Brew may earn a commission.

GAMES

Brew Mini: Hope you don’t find a single “bad sign on a date (three letters)” when solving today’s Mini. Play it here.

Three Headlines and a Lie

Three of these headlines are real and one is faker than your plan to set an 8am alarm on a Sunday. Can you spot the odd one out?

  1. South Carolina apartment complex holds vigil for resident alligator killed after complaints
  2. Comedian Tracy Morgan says he’s ok, had food poisoning after vomiting on Madison Square Garden court during Heat-Knicks game
  3. 380-million-year-old fossils dumped in landfill after N.J. college didn’t pay UPS bill, lawsuit claims
  4. Idaho ballet company sells out performance of The Shawshank Redemption in less than 24 hours

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ANSWER

We made up the one about the ballet.

Word of the Day

Today’s Word of the Day is: muzzle, meaning “to restrain from speech or the expression of opinion.” Thanks to Judy from San Diego, CA, for not being restrained in sending in the suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

         
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