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What’s going on here?

With interest rates bumping up dues on IOUs, many of the world’s high-income economies are now spending more on their debt than their militaries.

What does this mean?

The OECD’s 38 member nations spent an average of 3.3% of the size of their economies on interest payments last year – the highest level since 2007. And in the US, that figure was closer to 5%. Plus, nearly half of the debt those countries are servicing needs to be repaid or refinanced by 2027. The timing isn’t great: wary of stoking inflation, central banks have been buying fewer bonds lately. So in order for that to happen, private investors – like banks, hedge funds, and pension funds – may need to scoop up more of the debt. They could well demand higher interest rates in return, forcing governments to hand out even more money – possibly at the expense of healthcare, education, and economy-bolstering plans.

Why should I care?

For markets: Talk about liquid courage.

Investors are closely monitoring global liquidity: how cheaply and easily money can move around. When liquidity is high, borrowing’s cheap – so paying back debt is easier, making investors feel more comfortable with risk. Central bank interest rate and bond decisions have serious sway on this, but there are many factors at play. Think unregulated lenders, banks borrowing from each other, and money moving between countries. You should keep watch: liquidity is a big influencer of stock returns – so if credit becomes harder to access, stocks could be dropped.

The bigger picture: The clock is ticking.

Ferguson’s Law says that any great power spending more on interest than on defense is on borrowed time. And if you look at history, the ratio tipped for both the Netherlands and the UK before they lost international dominance. Now the US has crossed the line for the first time in nearly a century – and other wealthy nations aren’t far behind.

What’s going on here?

Retail investors have been offered a more accessible route into elusive private markets – but they’ll need to keep their wits about them to find the way out.

What does this mean?

Financial institutions and the ultra-wealthy have long held dibs on private investing opportunities. No longer, say EquityZen and Forge Global: the two trading platforms are tamping down minimum investment requirements, making it easier for everyday folk to buy stakes in private companies. But private market investing comes with a catch – or four. Trades can take days to settle, fees run up to 5%, investors are typically locked in for six months, and most valuation data is based on old fundraising rounds or internal estimates. The duo is teaming up with Yahoo Finance to provide more up-to-date statistics, though – like current bidding activity.

Why should I care?

For markets: You’d better enjoy the private life.

Retail investors might have been granted the freedom to buy into the likes of SpaceX and OpenAI, but that doesn’t necessarily come with the freedom to sell. Investors who want out will need to find a willing buyer for their shares – something that isn’t an issue in public markets. And remember, the more volatile markets are, the more cautious investors tend to be. Plus, an unwelcoming stock market could put private companies off plans to go public, pushing your potential payday back further.

The bigger picture: We’re in an episode of Hoarders.

Private equity firms have seen better days. High interest rates have made borrowing to buy more expensive, the economy has made it tougher to sell or publicly list companies, and institutions seem unlikely to hand over more funding. In fact, the market is ruled by just six megafunds right now, with smaller competitors lacking the resources to keep up. And lower valuations overall have left private equity firms holding $3 trillion worth of unsold companies.