Morning Brew - ☕️ Cleaning up

The 60/40 investment portfolio is under attack...
September 04, 2020 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

Miso

Good morning. Mulan comes out on Disney+ today, but let's be real—the Disney live-action remakes have been underwhelming.

Maybe they're thinking about it all wrong. What if...and hear us out...Disney started doing animation remakes instead? So taking its live-action movies and turning them into animated films?

There is one obvious choice for the first animated remake: Pirates of the Caribbean. 

MARKETS

NASDAQ

11,458.10

- 4.96%

S&P

3,454.89

- 3.52%

DJIA

28,289.63

- 2.79%

GOLD

1,937.10

- 0.39%

10-YR

0.631%

- 1.60 bps

OIL

41.27

- 0.58%

*As of market close

  • Markets: Turns out stocks don’t always go up. Big Tech dragged down the major U.S. indexes to their steepest drops in months yesterday. Many analysts say this was a healthy pullback from weeks of ludicrous gains.
  • Trade: The U.S. trade deficit (difference between imports and exports) grew to its highest level since 2008 in July. 
  • Jobs: New jobless claims = 881,000 last week, better than expectations. However, this was the first weekly report that reflected a new Labor Department methodology for calculating seasonal fluctuations. The big August jobs report is out this morning. 

TECH

Big Tech Right Now

Good place gif

Giphy

With the 2020 election looming, major tech platforms are scrambling to get their houses in order. 

Setting the scene: Election Day is 60 days out. Many experts are worried that social media platforms will amplify election shenanigans, especially given the seismic slip-ups of the last presidential cycle (remember Cambridge Analytica?). And there’s even more at stake now, what with the global pandemic. 

First up, 2016’s chief tech villain 

Aka Facebook. Yesterday, CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced new moves to curb misinformation and ensure a smooth electoral process. 

  • Facebook will not accept new political ads in the week leading up to Nov. 3. 
  • If any candidate attempts to declare victory before the final results are tallied, Facebook will link the post to vote counts from Reuters and the National Election Pool. 

These measures go further than Mark “Free Speech Crusader” Zuckerberg has gone before, but critics pounced immediately, arguing they’re the misinformation-banning equivalent of Louisiana Hot Sauce when the electoral system needs Mad Dog. 

  • Pinterest demonstrated a stricter approach by banning ads on election-related search terms. It banned all political ads two years ago. 

Second up, 2001’s chief tech villain: Microsoft. This week, the software giant released a tool that can help spot deepfakes, or photos and videos that have been manipulated by AI. Microsoft said the tool will be made available to “organizations involved in the democratic process.” 

Third up, all of Silicon Valley 

Well, almost. Axios reports that Facebook, Google, Twitter, and Reddit are holding regular meetings with each other, federal law enforcement, and intelligence agencies. 

For what? Book club. No, they’re coordinating how to handle what’s expected to be a historic election for mail-in voting. That’s especially tricky because election officials may be counting ballots for days or weeks after Election Day, likely causing confusion. 

Bottom line: This year, the responsibility of electoral integrity is falling on U.S. tech companies nearly as much as on the government.

        

EVENTS

Hey Look, Networking

People trying a Wessel Werk vacuum cleaner at the 2020 IFA trade fair

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Yesterday the IFA consumer electronics show kicked off in Berlin, and guess what? It’s not completely virtual. What a world!

Sure, it’s scaled down dramatically. Last year, the show had 2,300 exhibitors; this year, about 180. And instead of using 40 halls, IFA 2020 will only take up five. 

The backstory: For the tech industry, the pandemic first hit home when Mobile World Congress, the largest phone show in the world, canceled its event in February over coronavirus fears. In the months since, trade fairs around the world transitioned online as the pandemic halted physical gatherings. 

Now, the convention economy is beginning to tiptoe back to life, one breakout session at a time. On July 24, Orlando hosted 1,400 people for the “Together Again Expo,” a trade show all about trade shows during a pandemic.

Bottom line: No one knows whether the trade show circuit will ever be the same—and for those of us who don’t know how to end a conversation, maybe that’s a good thing. But any real recovery could be years out: Vegas’s huge CES show in January 2021 is all-virtual

        

INVESTING

60/40 Under Attack

a dinosaur in a canyon

Pixabay

We could be entering the Late Cretaceous period for the 60/40 investment portfolio, with a wave of critics forming an asteroid to wipe it out.

The latest naysayer: Paul McCulley, the former chief economist at investment giant PIMCO. On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast this week, he said that if the 60/40 portfolio keeps working, “then democracy has failed.” 

Okay, maybe it’s time to back up. The 60/40 investment portfolio encourages financial planners to invest in 60% equities and 40% bonds to achieve long-term success. It’s been coded into Wall Street’s DNA for decades, and provided solid returns for almost as long.

But increasingly, financial sages like McCulley argue that the Fed’s attempts to tamp down inflation have suppressed bond yields while inflating equity valuations—keeping the 60/40 split from working the way it’s supposed to. McCulley thinks this “disinflationary environment” that made the 60/40 mix an antique reflects larger systemic problems in the U.S. economy. 

So what now? A whole lot of experimentation is underway, including expansion into alternative investments like real estate. 

        

SPONSORED BY MISO

You’ve Got Some Ketching Up to Do

Miso

If you don’t know about Flippy yet (the robot who flips burgers), you’ve some serious ketching up to do.

This hunk of metal does more than beep and boop. Flippy is the world’s first autonomous robot kitchen assistant, helping Quick Service Restaurants cut operating costs by about 300%.

But we’re not just here relishing the chance to tell you about Flippy.

Hold onto your buns.

We’re here to say that you can actually invest in this cash cow (flipping robot).

Oh yeah, readers. Flippy’s the future of Quick Service Restaurants and the future of your wallet. 

Mmm mmm mmm: Get a cut of Flippy’s tasty revenue right now.

AUTO

Jeep Takes a Leep

Jeep Wagoneer

Jeep

Into the fancy SUV market. Fiat Chrysler (FCA)’s Jeep brand yesterday unveiled two new luxury SUV models—the Wagoneer and the Grand Wagoneer.

If that made Fleetwood Mac play in your mind...yes, the name is a throwback to a 1970s model. Some specs: 

  • The Wagoneer will cost about $60,000, while the fully-loaded Grand Wagoneer is expected to cost north of $100,000. 
  • While the original model featured the famous wood paneling, the one revealed yesterday has subtler teak finishes, plus multimedia displays. CNBC described the interior as “a digital cockpit.” 

Big picture: Luxury SUVs represent a highly profitable category in an otherwise lagging North American auto market. It’s also a competitive one—the Wagoneer will go up against GM’s GMC Yukon and Cadillac Escalade, and Ford’s Expedition and Lincoln Navigator. Eventually, Jeep wants the vehicle to be uttered in the same breath as the vaunted Range Rover. 

Bottom line: FCA’s other properties, Chrysler and Dodge, are struggling, so it’s hoping a souped-up SUV can turn its fortunes around by catering to the upper tax brackets.

        

QUIZ

A Quiz Worth Fighting For

Weekly news quiz

Five questions. Just you and this week's business news. Who will come out on top? 

Find out here

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Apple is delaying a recent change to its privacy settings that would severely hamstring Facebook and other companies from targeting ads.
  • GM and Honda have elbow-bumped on an alliance to make vehicles in North America. 
  • Juul, the e-cig maker, is planning to cut more than half its employees, the WSJ reports.
  • The mayor of Rochester, NY, suspended seven police officers involved in the asphyxiation death of Daniel Prude, a Black man, in March. Prude's family released body-cam footage of his death on Wednesday, sparking protests. 
  • President Trump will continue environmental deregulation if reelected, the EPA administrator said.
  • The Batman has stopped production in London after Robert Pattinson, who plays Batman, tested positive for COVID-19.

SPONSORED BY THE MOTLEY FOOL

The Motley Fool

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BREW'S BETS

What is a SPAC? A “special purpose acquisition company”...and the hottest thing on Wall Street since CAVA opened. Here’s your definitive beginner's guide.

Not even sure what to say: Just click around for a bit and we're sure you'll find something to entertain yourself with. 

Follow Friday: Retail Brew writer Halie LeSavage is handpicking today’s recs. Follow her for bankruptcy updates and shopping recs, then check out...

  • On Insta: @lizatlarge and @evahnsan are two artists that never fail to make me smile. Then there’s @idealbookshelf, which posts reading lists that double as wall decor.
  • On Twitter: If you want to know what building and scaling a DTC brand is really like, @TheYelitsa, @jurhyu, and @helena have you covered. And for my fellow recovering Floridians out there, I humbly present @GatorsDaily.

FRIDAY PUZZLE

If the Friday Puzzle doesn't take you four hours to solve...we're not doing it right.

Here's today's brain-bender: What is represented by the phrase "ETAOIN SHRDLU"?

  • Hint: The order of the letters is important.  

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FRIDAY PUZZLE ANSWER

It's the approximate order of frequency of the 12 most commonly used letters in the English language.

              

Written by Eliza Carter and Neal Freyman

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