A new long-term forecast predicts a significant acceleration in Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. as colder weather takes hold. Under the latest projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, deaths could rise to 410,000 by the end of 2020. In a worst-case scenario, there could be 620,000 fatalities, more than three times the number of Americans who have died over the past eight months. The difference between the projected and worst-case scenarios comes down to how diligent authorities are in mandating masks and social distancing, according to the report. More than 187,000 Americans have perished from the novel coronavirus. —David E. Rovella

Bloomberg is mapping the pandemic globally and across America. For the latest news, sign up for our Covid-19 podcast and daily newsletter.

Here are today’s top stories

Novo Nordisk, the Danish drugmaker, is exploring whether a new class of medicines that helps people lose weight and control diabetes also has potential in fighting Covid-19. Here is the latest on the pandemic.

August jobs data from the U.S. government said the unemployment rate fell almost two percentage points to 8.4%. Employers added 1.37 million people to payrolls, about one-sixth of whom were temporary workers for the decennial census, according to the Labor Department. The report may hobble any chance of a second Congressional bailout, and the future of America’s slow-motion recovery doesn’t look good.

Like the U.S., Europe’s jobs market also looks shaky, with the euro-area recovery losing steam and the inflation rate falling below zero. In the U.K., central bankers are hinting that they’ll do more to keep their recoveries on track.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell responded to the latest data on employment in the U.S. positively, but reiterated his view that the economic recovery has a long road ahead. U.S. stocks bounced back from a sharp selloff but still closed at a two-week low as megacap tech shares sold off. Here is the markets wrap.
 

Trump praised the jobs numbers on Friday, while also announcing at the White House that Serbia and Kosovo had agreed to “economic normalization,” in what he said was a step toward ending a two-decade old conflict. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden chided Trump over the modest jobs gains, saying only wealthy people are feeling the recovery while many more are still suffering. Biden slammed the Republican for mismanaging the virus and prolonging the recession, saying the economy would not fully recover until the coronavirus is under control. He also said followers of the far-right QAnon conspiracy theory should seek mental help.

Maybe sending your kid back to college isn’t a good idea after all. The State University at Oneonta in central New York is sending students home amid rising Covid-19 rates; Temple University in Philadelphia and Colorado College are doing the same. At the University of Alabama, 1,200 students are infected and the University of South Carolina’s positive test rate topped 27%. Even the University of Illinois, one of the pioneers in saliva testing for students, had to beg them to stop partying after finding more than 700 positive cases since classes began.

Everyone has been streaming more since the pandemic struck. With so many choices, we’ve developed a way to see what your ideal package will cost based on the shows you want to see.

What you’ll need to know tomorrow

• Report says Trump called U.S. soldiers killed in wars “losers.”
• More members of the military support Biden than Trump.
• Police kill Portland shooting suspect, allege he was armed.
• America in crisis: a highly polarized nation, mapped.
• Medical journal says Russian vaccine induced antibody response.
• Elon Musk’s options payout just hit a staggering new figure.
• Peloton is planning a cheaper treadmill.

What you’ll want to read in Bloomberg Pursuits

Fraud, Drugs Built a Billion-Dollar Shoe Empire

On June 20, police swarmed shoe designer Steve Madden’s Manhattan apartment. Madden, then in his early 40s, was implicated in Stratton Oakmont’s “pump and dump” scandal, familiar to anyone who’s seen The Wolf of Wall Street. “I was happy to flip stocks by buying and selling shares on the day of a company’s [IPO] and make a quick twenty to forty grand,” Madden writes in his forthcoming memoir The Cobbler: How I Disrupted an Industry, Fell From Grace, & Came Back Stronger Than Ever. The Cobbler, a nickname Stratton Oakmont founder Jordan Belfort gave Madden, is an occasionally dissonant combination of a self-help book, a 12 step-style mea culpa, and triumphant “I built this” narrative.

Like Bloomberg’s Evening Briefing? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

The Future of Forex: Is the dollar facing a critical threat as the world’s reserve currency? Are recent gains in emerging market currencies about to end? Join us virtually on Sept. 9 at 1 p.m. Singapore time (GMT+8) for FX insights from JPMorgan, Westpac, Royal Bridge Capital and more. Register here to be a part of this live, interactive conversation, or to access all content on-demand at your convenience.  

Download the Bloomberg app:  It’s available for iOS and Android.

Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. Learn more.