PUBLIC HEALTH

The “New Normal” Is Here

Remember in May when all of us were trying to figure out our “New Normal” during the pandemic? Well, we can stop speculating, because six months in, the “New Normal” is here. We’re living in it. 

What have we learned?

Masks: We wear them all the time, especially in indoor public spaces where they're often mandated. They can lead to "enormous economic gains" by slowing the virus's spread, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week. 

School, having restarted across much of the U.S., is a patchwork of online and in-person formats. NYC is the only major school district in the country to opt for in-person learning in September—classes begin in two weeks. 

• In higher ed, hundreds of colleges that had planned on bringing students to campus have reversed their stances and decided on a virtual semester. Temple University in Philadelphia just canceled in-person classes after students were on campus for all of two weeks. 

Travel: People are doing it, but not as much, and mostly on the ground. Air travel is stuck at about 33% of pre-pandemic levels, and airlines are slashing fees to get people in seats. 

• Closer to sea level, people are rediscovering nature. State parks in places like Wyoming welcomed a record number of visitors, while “remote stays” on Airbnb have almost doubled.  

Sports: a TV-only experience. Professional sports leagues have restarted successfully (the vast majority playing without any fans), but in the college world, several major conferences like the Big 10 postponed fall sports. 

Entertainment: slowly creeping back. This weekend, Christopher Nolan’s Tenet became the first major blockbuster to hit U.S. movie theaters since the pandemic began, bringing in $20.2 million in North America. About 70% of movie theaters in the U.S. are currently open.  

Work: It depends on your industry. If you work at a big tech firm like Google, chances are you’re going to WFH until the summer of 2021, or maybe forever. But that’s not the expectation in other industries, such as finance. Beginning yesterday, 50% of JPMorgan’s investment bankers will be returning to their NYC or London offices.

Looking ahead...the warm weather has allowed many socially distant activities, such as outdoor dining, to continue. But winter is coming, and our New Normal could look very different come Thanksgiving. 

INVESTING

Investors Take a Hard Look at SoftBank

Shares of the Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank fell more than 7% yesterday as investors questioned its unusual options trades betting on American big tech companies. 

• What’s the trade? We don't know the specifics, but analysts believe SoftBank has seen over $4 billion in unrealized gains on multiple monster options trades that hinge on tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook continuing their meteoric rise. 

While $4 billion+ in unrealized profits seems like a winner...

Investors are a little worried

The company faces around $30 billion worth of exposure. And while SoftBank, whose $100 billion Vision Fund has made huge investments in companies like WeWork and Uber, has thrown Hail Marys before... 

• Engaging in tens of billions worth of options trades is “a change in the risk profile of the company,” Astris Advisory Japan analyst David Gibson told the WSJ, and “the scale is what is concerning.”   

Bottom line: While the trades appear to be successful as of now, the keyword is “unrealized.” Until SoftBank books a profit, investors will be watching every percentage tick on the Nasdaq.

GRAB BAG

Soundbites From the Long Weekend

1. “The most important thing is to make sure at the end of the month, we don’t shut down the government and we get something past the election”—Treasury Sec. Steve Mnuchin. Over the weekend, he and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi agreed to work on a short-term spending bill to avoid an Oct. 1 government shutdown. 

2. “I think the vaccine supply chain is one of the most mind-bogglingly complex supply chains ever built”—Johns Hopkins Prof. Tinglong Dai told USA Today. The CDC, which is overseeing vaccine distribution, is expected to prioritize first responders, frontline healthcare workers, and high-risk individuals. 

3. "There's no end to this regret"—Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa, who on Sunday admitted to losing $41 million via day trading.

4. “We all agree that he didn’t do it on purpose, but the facts are still that he hit the line umpire and the line umpire was clearly hurt”—U.S. Open tournament referee Soeren Friemel, explaining why favorite Novak Djokovic was disqualified after accidentally hitting a line judge in the throat with a tennis ball. 

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ENERGY

It’s a Pipeline Problem

Over the weekend, Germany’s foreign minister threatened to reconsider a multibillion-dollar gas project if Russia doesn’t cooperate with an investigation into the poisoning of Alexey Navalny.

The backstory: On Aug. 20, the prominent Putin critic became critically ill after being poisoned with a banned chemical nerve agent. Navalny was flown to Germany and woke up from an induced coma yesterday.

• Germany and France are demanding answers from the Kremlin, though Russian officials deny involvement.

Back to the pipeline

The Nord Stream 2 bypasses Ukraine and will send Russian gas straight to Germany. More than 100 companies from 12 European countries are involved, and it's nearing the finish line.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel previously tried to separate the economics of the pipeline from the spicy politics. But her administration has faced pressure to change course, including from U.S. officials who 1) claim the pipeline will make Germany dependent on Russian gas and 2) want Europe to buy American gas.

Zoom out: With local production down, the EU is a competitive market for gas exports, and Nord Stream 2 would double Russian gas exports to Germany. 

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead: Football, Is That You?

What's weirder: Football during a pandemic or Tom Brady wearing a Bucs helmet?

Monday: That was yesterday 

Tuesday: Today; Senate returns from summer recess; earnings (Lululemon, Slack) 

Wednesday: It's time to liberate Ben Stiller—the American Museum of Natural History in NYC reopens

Thursday: The NFL kicks off; World Suicide Prevention Day; earnings (Peloton, Oracle, Dave & Busters) 

Friday: 19th anniversary of 9/11; CPI inflation data; Kroger earnings

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Companies including Starbucks, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Uber have helped recruit 350,000 employees to serve as poll workers this November.
• Nongfu Spring, China’s top bottled-water company, raised $87 billion yesterday in a record-breaking Hong Kong IPO.
• Samsung struck a deal with Verizon to supply the carrier with $6.6 billion of 5G networking equipment.
• SMIC shares fell over 20% yesterday on news the U.S. is considering sanctions against the Chinese chipmaker.
• A gender-reveal party is responsible for one of the wildfires burning in California, officials said. 

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From the vault: Someone resurfaced Nike's 10 original business values. Our favorite? "We're on offense. All the time." 

Grape expectations: We recently asked readers of our Essentials newsletter about their favorite bottles of wine; then, we collected those responses into an article for everyone's benefit. Check out readers' A+ wine recs.

Polarizing video: What do you think of this TikTok influencer house?

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INVENTION TRIVIA

Today's invention trivia comes from Dr. Anton Howes. What is this? 

Public domain

INVENTION TRIVIA ANSWER

That is a siren.