*As of market close

• Stocks: Coming off its worst week since March, the Nasdaq jumped nearly 2% amid a blizzard of deals. But there’s no time for a water break, with the Fed’s policy announcement on Wednesday and the biggest week for IPOs since Uber went public.
• Energy: A few ominous signs in the world of oil. OPEC slashed its projections for oil demand this year and next, while BP said demand for crude will peak in the early 2020s.

RETAIL

The Brew's Egregiously Early Holiday Preview

We’ve got seven days until fall, but temperatures dipped below 70 last Thursday so we’re already slipping peppermint creamer into our coffee. To kick off this holiday preview, let's first check in with Captain Obvious. Captain? 

Celebrations will look different

Nearly three-quarters of adults expect smaller holiday gatherings with friends and family because of Covid-19, according to a Morning Consult survey. About half expect virtual celebrations.

First up, Halloween. If grocery aisles could talk, they’d say 1) Halloween is already in full swing, and 2) there’s still a contingent of you who willingly buy Butterfingers. 

With 10% of annual sales at risk, Hershey is working with public health experts on a trick-or-treating website showing county-level coronavirus risks. Lawmakers have asked the CDC to release Halloween guidance, including alternatives like drive-through trick-or-treating. And LA County advised residents to move costume parties to Zoom. 

• To play Devil’s advocate (ha), Halloween is literally built around masks and individually packaged treats…

Next stop, Thanksgiving. Marching band parents exhaled a sigh of relief after Macy’s announced a TV-only parade yesterday. It'll pre-record segments with fewer participants and sub in specialty vehicles to lug the balloons. 

Retailers are adapting

Holiday spending accounts for ~20% of U.S. retail sales and has increased every year since 2002...except 2008. 

With the pandemic, 2020 spending could take a dip, especially without additional stimulus checks or padded unemployment benefits. But, with less travel and dining out, it could also go up. 

Either way, retailers aren't waiting until Black Friday to find out. On October 10, more than two dozen are reportedly participating in a new holiday discount event mirroring Alibaba's Singles' Day in China. Home Depot, Macy’s, Walmart, Target, and American Eagle are moving their holiday seasons up. And Amazon Prime Day, typically held in the summer, is reportedly rescheduled for Oct. 26.

Starting early helps spread out crowds and process orders before holiday shipping surcharges take effect in November. But companies are still bulking up for the busy season: UPS and FedEx are hiring a combined 170,000 seasonal workers; Amazon said yesterday it's hiring 100,000 full and part-time employees.

TECH

Oracle and TikTok, One Day Later

While the bidding war for TikTok was high on drama, the winning Oracle deal is low on specifics.

Here’s what we know

Oracle isn’t buying TikTok. Instead, the enterprise software company is expected to operate as the “trusted tech partner” of TikTok in the U.S. The announcement reaffirms that TikTok’s most valuable asset, its powerful recommendation algorithm, is unlikely to be part of the deal.

• So what is the deal? It’s still evolving, but Oracle would likely house data from U.S. TikTok users on its own cloud servers to alleviate some of the national security concerns that prompted the Trump administration to call for a sale, Bloomberg reports.   

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin also floated the idea that TikTok could open a “TikTok Global” HQ in the U.S. and create 20,000 jobs. 

Looking ahead...the deal will be reviewed by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) in the coming days before President Trump provides the final sign off.

CORPORATE

Business Beefs

Sometimes relationships in the business world are less SpongeBob and Patrick and more SpongeBob and Plankton. Here’s the latest on the biggest beefs in business.

Nikola vs. short sellers: Nikola, the upstart electric truck maker, released its defense after short-seller Hindenburg Research called it an “intricate fraud” last week. In the 2,700-word rebuttal, Nikola called the report a “hit job,” however it did concede a few key Hindenburg criticisms. The SEC is now investigating Nikola over these fraud allegations, reports Bloomberg.

Whistleblower vs. Facebook: In a memo obtained by BuzzFeed News, ex-Facebook data scientist Sophie Zhang alleges the company failed to respond to evidence that fake accounts were undermining political affairs in countries all over the world.  

Arm vs. Arm cofounder: TikTok-Oracle may be grabbing the headlines, but Nvidia’s $40 billion deal for UK chip designer Arm might be beefier. Arm’s cofounder Hermann Hauser wrote an open letter to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson asking that he intervene in the deal to protect UK jobs and economic interests.

SPONSORED BY BLACKROCK

Should Companies Lead With Purpose Through Crisis?

What impact can a purpose-driven company make on society? On this episode of The Bid podcast, Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky sits down with BlackRock Chief Marketing Officer Frank Cooper to talk about why purpose matters, how Airbnb has put purpose at the forefront of its decision-making, and how companies can lead through the Covid-19 crisis.

2020

Who (Doesn’t) Want to Be a Millionaire?

If your annual income is <$400,000, feel free to skip to the end of this story because you won’t see major changes in your taxes if Joe Biden wins this November. If you earn more...pay attention.

Roughly 80% of Biden’s proposed tax increases would fall on the top 1% of earners, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model. 

• What about the top 0.1%? Glad you asked. Biden’s plan would up their income tax rate to 43% from nearly 31% currently. The top 0.1% = people making more than $3.3 million annually.

Biden also wants to increase the capital gains tax rate (levied on profits from asset sales) to nearly 40% for Americans earning $1+ million. President Trump wants to drop that rate to 15% from 23.8%. 

What it means for the budget: Through 2030, Biden would raise nearly $3.4 trillion in additional tax revenue but boost spending by $5.4 trillion. The two biggest line items under the plan are education and infrastructure.  

Big picture: Despite Trump’s claims otherwise, middle-class families would be largely unaffected by Biden's tax plan, per Wharton's analysis.

BEVERAGE

PepZzzzzzzCo

In the biggest bedtime innovation since ad-free Counting Sheep Premium, consumer goods giant PepsiCo is releasing an enhanced water beverage called Driftwell to help you sleep better.

The backstory: Emerging from an employee incubator program, Driftwell went from ideation to production in under a year. The accelerated timeline comes as demand for “functional” beverages (those that provide value outside of just taste/nutrition) is on the rise, especially during a pandemic when people have struggled to sleep. 

• “I think we’re launching this at a time when there’s more consumer interest than there previously was, given everything that’s going on from a macro perspective,” Pepsi VP Emily Silver told CNBC. 

What’s in the can: The active ingredient is L-theanine, an amino acid found in some mushrooms and teas, that PepsiCo says achieved results in clinical testing. At 7.5 ounces, it’s intended to provide the perfect amount of hydration without forcing a midnight trip to the bathroom. 

Bottom line: As Big Soda confronts a decline in the popularity of sugary drinks, moves into emerging categories like sleep and relaxation will become more common.

GIVEAWAY

I Want to Give Away

• Each time you refer someone to Morning Brew, you'll get a ticket entered into the raffle. 1 referral = 1 ticket.

How to start: Click the share button below to grab your unique referral link. Then, tell everyone you know that they can 1) read business news that makes you smile even during a pandemic and 2) have a chance to win a new computer.

Or copy & paste your referral link to others:
morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=303a04a9

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Apple’s hardware event is today at 1pm ET. 
• Steve Cohen, the billionaire hedge fund manager, agreed to buy the New York Mets for a reported $2.4+ billion—a record for a North American sports franchise. 
• President Trump said he'd be open to podcast host Joe Rogan moderating a four-hour debate with Joe Biden.
• YouTube launched a TikTok rival in India called Shorts. India has banned TikTok.
• “It’s far fetched, until it’s not:” A new report reveals the potential for alien life on Venus.

SPONSORED BY BLACKROCK

Globally, one in four people live in regions at high risk of water scarcity, according to the World Resources Institute's May 2020 report. This episode of BlackRock Bottom Line explores why water is a risk to investment portfolios—a risk that's often overlooked.

BREW'S BETS

Tech Tip Tuesday: Spend five minutes in the driveway and optimize the settings on your in-car tech, including Apple CarPlay and Android Auto. 

From Melinda and Bill: The Gates Foundation released its annual Goalkeepers Report last night, and—you guessed it—it’s about the far-reaching effects of Covid-19.

What we're watching: The Social Dilemma on Netflix. After seeing this documentary-drama mix, you are guaranteed to place your phone in another room before going to bed. 

FAMGA footrace: Microsoft xCloud rolls out on Android today, so our videogame correspondent Jamie Wilde put together a non-gamer-friendly guide to cloud gaming. Read it here to learn why Big Tech is going all-in on the technology.

FROM THE CREW

Yesterday, we wrote that Mike Bloomberg was pouring in $100 billion to help Joe Biden's campaign in Florida. Not even Mike has that much money—the billion should've been million. We regret the error.

To all those who asked, no you do not get a Brew mug for pointing out the mistake.  

TRIVIA

Guess the Logo

Answer at the bottom 

TRIVIA ANSWER

That emblem belongs to the United Nations, which is kicking off the 75th session of its General Assembly today.