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Today's big stories

Uber’s considering buying a European ride-hailing business
One obscure initial public offering next month is causing quite the stir among investors – Read Now
Analysis from Leuthold Group suggests now could be the best time to buy US stocks

1/3

Track And Race

What’s Going On Here?

Looks like Uber isn’t too keen on this whole self-isolation thing: the ride-hailing giant is reportedly looking to buy Free Now, a rival European venture owned by auto titans Daimler and BMW.

What Does This Mean?

Free Now – the biggest of the various car-related businesses jointly owned under the “Your Now” umbrella – was created from a few different ride-hailing services, including the UK’s Hailo and France’s Kapten. But with all inessential travel grinding to a halt amid the global lockdowns, it found itself struggling throughout the pandemic – and Daimler and BMW have started to back away from it altogether.

That could be why Uber’s suddenly interested. America’s ride-hailing superstar might now be able to snap up the rival taxi app on the cheap: Daimler valued its half of Your Now at $720 million in June, which suggests the whole company – including the non-ride-hailing segments – is worth around $1.4 billion. See? Cheap.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Two birds, one stone.
Uber has sold off the small stakes it had in Asian and Russian businesses in recent years, in hopes it’ll be able to focus on its biggest markets and eventually turn a profit. So the potential acquisition of Free Now makes sense: Uber would not only save the money it’d normally spend on competing with the rival company, but it should also boost its market share – and its profit – across Europe and Latin America.

The bigger picture: Driver’s ed.
Even before it became a public company, Uber was having a tough time. It was barred from adding new drivers for a year by New York lawmakers in 2018, became locked in ongoing disputes about whether its freelance workers were legally employees, and last year faced an outright ban in London. At least the latter’s worked itself out: a judge declared Uber “fit and proper” to continue operating in the city on Monday.

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2/3 Premium

Allegro Picks Up Pace

What’s Going On Here?

Ecommerce platform Allegro will jump straight in as Poland’s biggest public company when shares start trading next month, it emerged on Tuesday.

Find out more about Poland’s answer to Amazon with Finimize Premium

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3/3

All The Feels

What’s Going On Here?

Leuthold’s latest analysis just got us in our feelings: consumer and investor sentiment shows now’s a great time to buy into US stocks.

What Does This Mean?

Leuthold Group first looked at a measure of US “consumer comfort”, which shows how everyday people feel about both their personal finances and the economy at large. It turns out they feel better than they have done 76% of the time since 1987. The research firm then looked at the difference between the number of investors who feel positive about markets and the number of who are more skeptical: that figure’s lower than it’s been 97% of the time since 1987.

Together, those stats unlock a pretty unique opportunity: Leuthold found that whenever consumers are more optimistic than investors – that is, whenever “Main Street” is more optimistic than “Wall Street” – stocks typically rise by an annualized 20% over the following week (tweet this).

Why Should I Care?

For markets: The economy just got real.
The past doesn’t predict the future, but it is pretty instructive. Main Street’s consumers and small businesses, after all, drive the so-called “real economy” by buying whatever they can afford. So when they’re feeling optimistic, they tend to spend more, which in turn drives up company earnings. Couple that with pessimistic investors, and you’re more likely to get earnings reports that beat expectations. That should, in turn, drive stock prices higher as investors raise their forecasts to match reality.

The bigger picture: It’s all you, you, you.
Stocks have tended to perform their worst when both Main Street and Wall Street are feeling positive, rising by an annualized 8% over the following week. And when investors are more positive than consumers – or both feel much the same way – stocks turn in a roughly 12% annualized return. Consumers and investors, then, work together to drive stock market returns – so no matter who you are, you’re impacting the financial world more than you think.

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💬 Quote of the day

“What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.”

– Antoine de Saint-Exupéry (a French writer, poet, and aristocrat)

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📄 Where there’s a will, there’s a Finimize event

And where there’s not a will, turns out there’s also a Finimize event. In fact, today’s event – Seven Sins of Estate Planning – is all about how to create your very own will and steer clear of the most common mistakes involved. Always helps to be prepared, eh?

👹 Seven Sins of Estate Planning: 12pm Pacific Time / 8pm UK Time September 30th
💸 The Finimize Induction: 2pm UK Time / 9am New York Time
🙋‍♀️ Healthy Financial Habits for Expats: 5pm UK Time, October 6th
👩‍💻 Estonia’s Startup Ecosystem: 5pm UK Time, October 7th
✈️ Healthy Financial Habits for US Expats: 5pm UK Time, October 15th
🍷 How To Hold Wine In A Diversified Portfolio: 2.30pm UK Time / 9.30am New York Time, October 21st

📚 What we're reading

Your rest-of-2020 to-do list (Repeller)
How Hollywood’s dealing with Covid (Vulture)
Is this the end of tourism as we know it? (The Guardian)

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Finimize - 💨 Uber’s high-speed deal

Today's big stories

Track And Race

What’s Going On Here?

What Does This Mean?

Why Should I Care?

Allegro Picks Up Pace

🧐 Dress to impress with BOSS

All The Feels

What’s Going On Here?

What Does This Mean?

Why Should I Care?

📄 Where there’s a will, there’s a Finimize event

Older messages

🎰 Caesars’ 4 billion dollar wager

🎮 Amazon pwns Google

😮 Some stocks are anti-vaxxers

🍑 Nike breaks the internet

🌍 New event: A Tale of Two Economic Recoveries

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