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Next week’s U.S. presidential election sees two candidates with very different views of everything from economics to social issues and foreign policy go up against one another. Their policies on technology issues have gotten less attention, but the outcome of the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump will have significant implications for CIOs.
Earlier this week, Forbes held the first of three episodes in its CIO Next virtual event series, and one of the sessions was dedicated to the election and what the different outcomes would mean for tech policy. Via an online poll, the attendees signaled their two top concerns were what the election would mean for trade relations with China and its implications for skilled immigration.
On trade, the Trump administration’s aggressive stance towards China, which has been reflected in everything from its determination to rein in Huawei to its threats to blacklist Chinese chipmakers such as SMIC, has fueled concerns about the cost of key components for tech equipment and the impact of any reprisals made by the Chinese.
Speaking at our event, Darrell West, a tech policy specialist at the Brookings Institution, said a second Trump administration would continue its somewhat haphazard and unilateral approach to pressuring the Chinese. A Biden administration would be tough on China too, but it would likely exert pressure in a more predictable manner and try to get the support of allies in Europe. “China is very much a tit-for-tat country” when it comes to trade deals, West said, so a less chaotic approach could make it easier to strike lasting agreements. It would also make it easier for CIOs to gauge future risks to tech supply chains and budget projections.
On immigration, a re-elected Trump is unlikely to shift from his current policy, which has seen cuts in H1-B visas and other avenues for bringing in skilled workers. Biden is more likely to ease restrictions, though the progressive wing of the Democrats remains concerned that people coming in on H1-Bs may undermine wages for domestic workers in similar positions. So a Biden administration might not open up H1-Bs as widely as many expect; instead, it could look at other avenues to bring in the kinds of high-skilled workers CIOs would dearly like to hire.
As I said, these were the two top areas of concern to our CIO Next attendees, but there are plenty of other areas that the election’s outcome could affect, from cybersecurity to data privacy. You can read more about these in my post here.
Thanks for reading and do please send me your tips, thoughts, questions and ideas for future issues at mgiles@forbes.com. You can also follow me on Twitter and on LinkedIn. And if you enjoy reading this newsletter please recommend it to others who may find it useful.
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