Morning Brew - ☕️ Kevin on top

The first vaccines are officially out for delivery
December 14, 2020 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

Quick Base

Good morning and welcome back to the week. We saw this thought exercise on Twitter this weekend, and it just might be the most impossible question ever asked. Pick your favorite:

  1. Snowing outside, Netflix, fireplace, hot cocoa
  2. Sunny and 70°, windows open, cleaning, baking cookies
  3. Sunny and 90°, in the pool, grilling, drinking iced tea
  4. Sunny and 55°, leaves falling, sitting outside, reading a book

Btw, the correct answer is d. 

MARKETS YTD PERFORMANCE

NASDAQ

12,377.87

+ 37.95%

S&P

3,663.46

+ 13.39%

DOW

30,046.37

+ 5.28%

GOLD

1,843.50

+ 21.28%

10-YR

0.906%

- 101.40 bps

OIL

46.56

- 23.93%

*As of market close

  • Brexit: The EU and the UK agreed to extend trade negotiations, and this thing is officially dragging on longer than a college graduation ceremony. Their joint statement sums up the situation well: "Despite the exhaustion after almost a year of negotiations, despite the fact that deadlines have been missed over and over, we think it is responsible at this point to go the extra mile."
  • Stocks: You won't see it in the chart above, but the small-cap Russell 2000 is outperforming the S&P 500 this year (up 15% vs. 13%). Companies like Macy's, Spirit Airlines, and Denny's have been driving the index higher this month. 

HEALTHCARE

Hope Looks Like an 18-Wheeler

Nancy Galloway (L) and Susan Deur cheer as trucks carrying the first shipment of the Covid-19 vaccine that is being escorted by the US Marshals Service, leave Pfizer's Global Supply facility in Kalamazoo, MI.

Jeff Kowalsky/Getty Images

Yesterday morning, about 36 hours after the FDA granted emergency authorization, the first truck carrying Pfizer-BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine departed Kalamazoo, MI. Altogether, around 3 million doses will snake their way to 636 distribution centers across the country in the coming days.

  • UPS and FedEx, which are handling last-mile deliveries, will drop off extra dry ice for recipients, and medical supplier McKesson will deliver syringes, alcohol pads, and other supplies. 

The vaccine requires two shots a month apart, so officials are saving the second half of the ~6.4 million doses planned for the first wave to send out in a few weeks. 

Bingo nights could return soon

Most states are expected to follow CDC guidance and vaccinate healthcare workers and staff and residents of long-term care facilities first. Next week, CVS and Walgreens pharmacists will begin vaccinations at 75,000 long-term care facilities in most parts of the country, a process CVS estimates will take 9–12 weeks. 

The FDA warned that people with a history of severe allergic reactions to the vaccine's components should wait. And it'll still take months to produce enough doses to cover other high-risk groups (like the elderly, essential workers, and people with underlying conditions), let alone the broader population.

The remaining challenges

Spoilage: Pfizer's vaccine needs to maintain -94°F, and although the company has equipped shipping containers with dry ice and GPS-enabled temperature sensors, it's expected that some doses won't survive the journey. 

Supply chain: In 2009, delivery timetables for the swine flu vaccine shifted regularly. The same hurdles are expected this time around: Each batch manufactured in a different facility must be tested for quality control, which takes time. And packaging, dry ice, glass vials, and other materials face their own supply chain constraints. 

Funding: State health officials asked Congress for $8.4 billion to help pay for staff to administer vaccines and track data. So far, they've received $350 million.

Looking ahead...on Thursday, the FDA is scheduled to review Moderna's vaccine, which was about as effective as Pfizer's in clinical trials. It's expected to get approval. 

        

ELECTION

Georgia on Our Minds

MARIETTA, GA - NOVEMBER 11:  Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Loef...

Jessica Mcgowan/Getty Images

The runoff races in Georgia are set to become some of the most expensive Senate campaigns in history, per AdImpact data cited by the Financial Times.

The backstory: The races, which remain undecided from Election Day in November, pit Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue against Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, respectively. The stakes are high: If the GOP can hold onto one of those seats, they'll eke out a majority in the Senate and be in a better position to push back on President-elect Joe Biden's agenda. 

With lots on the line, the race has drawn interest (and $$$) from corporate America. 

  • On the GOP side, Blackstone's Stephen Schwarzman and Citadel's Ken Griffin are among the top donors to a political action committee (PAC) linked to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
  • Netflix CEO Reed Hastings contributed $500,000 to a Democratic PAC, but the party is focusing more on small-donor support. Its online fundraising platform processed nearly $112 million in donations from Nov. 4 to Nov. 23 (the GOP equivalent processed $55.6 million).

Looking ahead...the vote is scheduled for Jan. 5, but in-person early voting starts today.

        

MARKET

IPNo

This weekend, gaming platform Roblox and fintech startup Affirm postponed their highly anticipated IPOs until early 2021, the WSJ reports. Not what you were expecting after Airbnb’s and DoorDash's graph-smashing debuts last week?

Actually, some investors are worried the IPO market is a little too hot right now. 

  • BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: Recent prices are "unsustainable" and "there are going to be many accidents."
  • Famed venture capitalist Bill Gurley: "Two high-profile companies voluntarily delay their IPO because broken process repeatedly creates massive mispricings that come from pockets of company's founders, employees, & shareholders."

Affirm and Roblox were hoping for valuations as high as $10 billion and $8 billion, respectively. Recent IPO trends may lead them to sell more shares or price them differently.

Big picture: The pandemic has been kind to tech IPOs. Three of the biggest ever in terms of capital raised took place this year (Airbnb, DoorDash, and Snowflake). Valuations relative to revenue are the highest since the dot-com bubble. And even companies that make no money are soaring: At least three electric vehicle companies worth more than $2 billion have no revenue.

        

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MEDIA

TFW You Are a Cameo Legend

Kevin on the office

Giphy

Brian Baumgartner, the actor who played Kevin on The Office, will make more than $1 million on celebrity booking site Cameo this year, CEO Steven Galanis revealed on the podcast, Sway. That makes him the platform's top earner of 2020.

Baumgartner has been successful, Galanis says, because he "takes a lot of pride in his craftsmanship of the videos." And he works hard. Since he charges $195/video, we estimate Baumgartner will have averaged at least 14 videos per day in 2020. 

Here are a few other juicy details about Cameo:

  • YouTuber David Dobrik is the most-requested celebrity that's not on the platform. He's requested "way more than a Beyonce or a J. Lo.," said Galanis.
  • But Galanis thinks President Trump would crush Dobrik if he joined Cameo. Fifteen Trump impersonators have collectively done $3.2 million this year in gross merchandise value.
        

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Olaf gif

Giphy

Electoral college: Today, the 538 members of the Electoral College will officially cast their votes for president and vice-president. Joe Biden is expected to get 306 electoral votes to President Trump's 232 (270 is the threshold for victory).  

Tesla gets promoted: On Friday, Elon Musk's $578 billion electric automaker will join the S&P 500 index. And it's going to be a wild scene—investors could trade more than $50 billion in a matter of minutes to make room for Tesla in their portfolios.

Fed meeting: The U.S. central bank will meet for the final time this year on Tuesday and Wednesday. What's the buzz? That the Fed could announce a tweak to its bond-buying program, shifting more focus to longer-dated Treasuries in order to keep yields down. So, yeah, not a lot of buzz.  

Everything else:

  • Christopher Nolan's Tenet will be released digitally on Tuesday.
  • A major snowstorm could hit the East Coast mid-week.
  • Friday is National Ugly Sweater Day.
        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Hackers accessed email systems at the Treasury and Commerce Departments in a major espionage operation that also included the recent attack on cybersecurity firm FireEye. Early signs point to Russia.
  • Cleveland's baseball team will change its name from the Indians, according to the NYT. It could make an announcement as soon as this week.   
  • AstraZeneca, the British pharma giant, is buying U.S. drug company Alexion Pharmaceuticals for $39 billion in a bet on immunology. 
  • Germany is tightening restrictions from Wednesday through Jan. 10 to combat a rise in Covid-19 infections. 
  • Virgin Galactic aborted a manned spaceflight on Saturday after an engine failed to fully ignite.
  • A Brew original: What Sony buying Crunchyroll means for the growing anime industry. 

BREW'S BETS

Let's track the tech giants. Our CEO, Alex Lieberman, covers an array of topics with guests from Fidelity in the limited podcast series, Fresh Invest. In the latest episode, Alex and Heather Knight talk quarterly earnings reports of our favorite techies. Tune in today.*

Last chance for free mascara? LAST CHANCE?! Ok, breathe. It’s just that this holiday gift set includes a best-selling brow gel, eyeliner, and...what was the other thing? Oh yeah, FREE MASCARA. Get it before it's gone for only $46 ($70 value).*

RIP John le Carré: The legendary spy novelist died yesterday at 89. Chances are you've seen a movie based on his novels (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, for one), but if you want to go back to the OG texts here are 10 of his best books

Dive into the week:

*This is sponsored advertising content

GAMES

Multiple Choice

Which of the following celebrities is the most expensive to book on Cameo?

  1. Drake Bell  
  2. LaVar Ball 
  3. Lance Bass
  4. Carole Baskin

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ANSWER

Carole Baskin ($299) is the most expensive of those four.

** A Note From Fidelity Fresh Invest

Keep in mind that investing involves risk. The value of your investment will fluctuate over time, and you may gain or lose money.

Morning Brew and Fidelity Investments are independent entities and are not legally affiliated.

Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917

              

Written by Neal Freyman and Alex Hickey

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