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Today's big stories

The US economy lost jobs for the first time since April
The world’s biggest alternative investment manager has laid out some bold predictions for 2021 – Read Now
Chipmaker TSMC reported strong sales in December, which bodes well for Apple's investors

Hunger Games

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Friday showed the US economy lost 140,000 jobs in December, since there only seems to be one thing on the hospitality industry’s menu these days.

What Does This Mean?

Economists kept their expectations in check heading into the announcement, predicting the US would add a modest 50,000 jobs. But with coronavirus thumbing its nose at the very idea of yuletide generosity, job creation ground to a complete halt. And while the unemployment rate might’ve held steady at 6.7%, it didn’t drop like it had done for the previous seven months either.

Pandemic-driven restrictions have been taking a particular toll on bars and restaurants, which cut nearly half a million positions between them. That goes some way to show how much economic damage the leisure and hospitality industries are having to bear – especially when you consider that sectors like construction and retail did manage to create new jobs.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Keep it coming.
The monthly US jobs report is a good indicator of how the overall economy’s doing, so investors tend to pay pretty close attention to it. That said, they seemed to shrug off December’s disappointing update with a “bad news is good news” investment mentality. See, the Democratic victory in the Senate elections last week already makes another coronavirus support package likely to arrive soon. Throw in some demoralizing economic data like this, and the chances that the government will pump more money into the economy just keep rising.

Zooming out: Fooled you.
Europe reported a small drop in its employment rate for the second month in a row, with the number inching down to 8.3% in November. That came as a surprise to economists who had expected it to rise, but they might not be wrong: that figure doesn’t take into account all the people who’ve given up looking for work altogether – including those who have kids to look after now school closures are back with a vengeance.

You might also like: How to recession-proof your portfolio.

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2. Analyst Take

Get Ready For The Longest Economic Boom “In History”

What’s Going On Here?

If Blackstone’s newly published predictions for 2021 end up being proved right, you’re in for a wild ride this year.

The investment manager’s feeling optimistic, arguing that US economic growth could top 6% for the year – and kick off the country’s longest-ever period of economic expansion.

But it also believes the US stock market could drop as much as 20% in the first half of 2021 – only to be up by 20% from current levels at some point later in the year.

And that, Blackstone says, will be down to an unravelling of last year’s trends – with Big Tech doing (relatively) badly and beaten-down sectors like energy and hospitality on the rise.

Blackstone’s made forecasts for bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies, as well as a whole host of other stock predictions too. You can check them all out in today’s Insight.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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CareDrop

What’s Going On Here?

TSMC has some good news to share with Apple’s investors: the chipmaker reported strong December sales on Friday.

What Does This Mean?

TSMC counts Apple as one of its biggest customers, so the chipmaker’s 14% increase in sales from the same time last year isn’t just encouraging news for its own investors: the boost suggests the latest iPhones are flying off the (virtual) shelves too (tweet this). It wasn’t Apple’s only supplier to give a promising update last week either: iPhone assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry reported better-than-expected revenue in December, while Dialog Semiconductor – a rival chipmaker to TSMC – upped its fourth-quarter sales outlook after stronger-than-expected demand for Apple’s 5G tech.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: There’s no “I” in “iPhone”.
Signs of high iPhone demand were a welcome arrival for Apple’s investors, especially after the company’s earnings update in October fell short on that front. It was particularly encouraging because they’re the first real indication of how the newest iPhone is performing: its delayed launch meant its sales weren’t included in the update, and the company didn’t offer any hints as to how it was selling. TSMC’s announcement, then, might put investors’ minds at rest, sending them into Apple’s next earnings release – which takes place at the end of this month – with a bit more confidence.

The bigger picture: The doctor won’t see you now.
The outlook for the microchip industry is pretty positive overall – so much so that chipmakers haven’t been able to scale up from the pandemic-induced slump quickly enough. Carmakers are reportedly having to slow down production because there aren’t enough chips to go around, and since they don’t pay nearly as handsomely as the likes of Apple, they’ll have to wait their turn…

You might also like: How important is the iPhone to Apple anyway?

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💬 Quote of the day

“There is a crack in everything. That’s how the light gets in.”

– Leonard Cohen (a Canadian singer-songwriter, poet, and novelist)

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What the Flock?

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🤖 Come with us if you want to learn

Another year’s gone by and we’ve taken one step closer to a dystopian future where robots rule us all. But maybe that’s not such a bad way to live: the CEO of Knightscope certainly thinks autonomous tech can make the world – and quite possibly your wallet – a better place, and he’ll be chatting you through the hows and how tos at one of our first events of 2021.

📈 The Stock Market in a Post-Brexit Economy: 6pm UK Time, January 20th
🤖 The Opportunity for Autonomous Tech: 1pm New York Time, January 27th
🚀 Future of Fintech in Latin America: 6pm UK Time, February 2nd

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Finimize - 📱 Everyone wants an iPhone

Today's big stories

Hunger Games

What’s Going On Here?

What Does This Mean?

Why Should I Care?

Get Ready For The Longest Economic Boom “In History”

Level the playing field with PrimaryBid

CareDrop

What’s Going On Here?

What Does This Mean?

Why Should I Care?

What the Flock?

🤖 Come with us if you want to learn

Older messages

🇺🇸 America gets a reality check

💀 They're coming for you, Amazon

🍾 New year, new something?

😷 Remind me what just happened?

😱 IPOs really are canceled

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