Finimize - 💡 Six bright ideas for 2021

Hang on in there, baby | Unilever: not dope |

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Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for February 5th in 3:01 minutes.

💪 A whole new kind of investor has been brought into the markets over the last few years: during the bitcoin surge in 2017, the day-trading phenomenon last year, and, most recently, the WallStreetBets saga. Check out our CEO’s thoughts on the rise of this casual investor, and how they’re reshaping a long-unchallenged industry.

Today's big stories

  1. Shell reported weaker-than-expected earnings, but at least it increased shareholder payouts
  2. One of last year’s most successful investors has laid out six investment predictions for 2021 – Read Now
  3. Unilever’s quarterly earnings came in below analysts forecasts, and its growth outlook underwhelmed investors too

Pump Slump

Pump Slump

What’s Going On Here?

Shell’s quarterly earnings missed analysts’ expectations on Thursday, but at least one thing isn’t running dry: the oil company upped its dividend.

What Does This Mean?

Like the rest of 2020, last quarter was hard for oil companies, with ongoing travel restrictions continuing to hammer demand for and the price of the slippery elixir. So it might come as no surprise that Shell posted a worse-than-expected 87% drop in profit compared to the same time the year before.

The oil company’s feeling surprisingly upbeat about the road ahead though: it’s expecting the vaccine to drive an economic recovery by the second half of the year – and with it, oil demand. In fact, Shell reckons things will be completely back to normal by 2022. And in the meantime, it’s doing whatever it can to reassure investors: namely boosting shareholder payouts by 4%.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Energy companies are all in the same boat. 
There were some early signs of improvement for energy companies in the third quarter of last year, but they’ve gone out the window since: Exxon, BP, and Chevron have all reported weaker-than-expected results over the past week. And analysts didn’t even set the bar particularly high: they’d forecasted that of all the sectors, energy companies would see the biggest drop in earnings.

The bigger picture: Hasn’t oil gone green yet?
Oil companies aren't just struggling with the pandemic: they're trying to keep up with the transition away from fossil fuels too. And thanks to an eco-conscious new US president, that transition might be about to happen faster than anyone expected: he’s already rejoined the Paris climate agreement, ripped up the Keystone Pipeline permit, and suspended new oil and gas leases on public land. That might be why shares of oil producers have underperformed the global stock market by 6% since his inauguration (tweet this).

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2. Analyst Take

Six Bold Ideas From One Of 2020’s Best Investors

What’s Going On Here?

The rest of us might not have had a great 2020, but ARK Investment Management sure did.

The amount of money in the firm’s “thematic” exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increased tenfold, and its flagship ETF gained 150%.

So now that ARK’s come out with its annual list of biggest ideas for 2021, it’s well worth taking a closer look.

For starters, it’s backing virtual entertainment: ARK thinks augmented reality and virtual reality together grow 59% per year over the next half-decade.

It has its eyes on the stars too: with technological advances bringing down rocket and satellite costs, the firm reckons annual revenue in the space sector could soon top $370 billion.

And as for bitcoin… well, it’s feeling pretty good about it now institutional investors have got in on the game: ARK’s projecting the cryptocurrency could increase by as much as $500,000.

So that’s today’s Insight: all six of ARK’s predictions, as well as the names of the ETFs that’ll let you invest in the sectors.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Stock Market

Stock Market

What’s Going On Here?

Unilever – home to brands like Knorr and Hellmann’s – announced worse-than-expected quarterly earnings on Thursday, and the consumer staple’s stock left a weird aftertaste in investors’ mouths.

What Does This Mean?

Times have been kinder to Unilever than they have the rest of us: shoppers have been hoarding its everyday essentials, from stock cubes to mayonnaise. But while its underlying sales growth was in line with analysts’ estimates, the company couldn’t hit profit expectations: turns out pandemic-related expenses and a lack of out-of-home business have taken their toll on its bottom line.

That’s not the only thing that's rubbed investors the wrong way. Unilever had ditched its long-term sales growth target of 3-5% back in the early days of the pandemic, and the company finally had enough confidence to restore that target. But hard-to-please investors had much more ambitious goals in mind, and they sent its shares down by 6% – a big move for a usually stable “defensive stock.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Quit it, guys – you’re making Unilever look bad.
One of the reasons expectations were so high was because Unilever’s rivals raised the bar last month. Spirits maker Diageo and consumer goods rival Procter & Gamble both delivered better-than-expected updates, and the latter even upped its forecasts for the rest of the year.

The bigger picture: Unilever is your dad in a backwards cap.
Unilever’s now tweaking its strategy to focus more on fast-growing markets – like plant-based foods and high-end beauty products – and fast-growing regions, like China and India. It’s hoping to boost its sustainability “cred” too, in an effort to make millennials and Gen Z think it’s really “lit”. But investors are skeptical: the company’s long been under pressure to bump up sales growth, and it hasn’t delivered so far…

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🙋 Ask a question

💬 Quote of the day

“The way I see it, if you want the rainbow, you gotta be willing to put up with the rain.”

– Dolly Parton (an American singer, songwriter, multi-instrumentalist, and actress)
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📚 What we're reading

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🌎 Finimize Community

🛍 Some much-needed retail therapy

The pandemic will (we hope) soon be a thing of the past, but the retail sector’s going to be feeling the effects for some time to come. Join us for Investing in Retail Stocks to find out how they’re are adapting to shifting demographics and new priorities, and where you can find the next big opportunities tucked away.

👾 Bitcoin vs Ethereum: 7pm France Time, February 5th
✌️ Dimensional Investing vs ETFs: 9pm Singapore Time, February 9th
🛍 Investing in Retail Stocks: 6pm UK Time, February 10th
🤖 What’s next for Crypto?: 9pm Hong Kong Time, February 11th
🍃 Key ESG Trends for 2021: 6pm UK Time, February 16th
👦 The Millennial Effect: 6pm UK Time, February 17th
🎮 Esports ETFs with VanEck: 6pm UK Time, February 22nd
🙋 Developing a Framework to Invest in Women: 6pm UK Time, February 25th
🌈 Financial Planning for the LGBTQ Community: 2pm NYC Time, February 26th
💪 Q&A with Finimize CEO, Max Rofagha: 1.30pm UK Time, February 26th

😕 Well, that was a long January…

And there was us thinking this year would be less dramatic than last year.

No such luck: markets haven’t exactly been quiet.

The New York Stock Exchange backtracked on plans to delist several Chinese companies, including China Mobile and China Telecom Corp.

Barn-storming updates from BYD and Tesla brought electric vehicles to the forefront, upping the competition between car-making incumbents and new kids on the block.

Apple announced a record-breaking quarter, even if the skeptics still think the iPhone’s days are numbered.

Oh, and there was a little bump in a veteran games retailer’s price too. GameStart? StopGame? We’re sure it’ll come to us.

All this, and much more, in the all-singing, all-dancing, all-new January Monthly Review.

Listen to the January Monthly Review

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