Finimize - 🚨 Ray Dalio's bubble warning

Airbnb gets settled in | US is suddenly all into sustainabillity |

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Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for March 1st in 3:03 minutes.

🌳 Investing in biodiversity could save our planet, so drop in to our interview with the head of impact Investing at Federated Hermes International on Wednesday: she’ll tell you where to focus your investments to mitigate – or even reverse – some of the damage. Grab your ticket

Today's big stories

  1. Airbnb’s sales beat expectations, and the home-sharing company reckons a big travel rebound is coming
  2. Legendary investor Ray Dalio’s “bubble indicator” is flashing a warning sign – Read Now
  3. New analysis from Morgan Stanley showed sustainable funds outperformed traditional funds last year

Working From Roam

Working From Roam

What’s Going On Here?

Airbnb reported better-than-expected quarterly results late last week, after everyone ventured off the beaten track to take their Zoom meetings from the middle of nowhere.

What Does This Mean?

Globetrotting might still be on hold, but there have been plenty of itchy-footed workers taking advantage of their newfound WFH freedom by booking long stays in remote locations. And that’s been a relief for Airbnb, whose sales fell 22% last quarter from the same time the year before – not ideal, sure, but far better than analysts were expecting. That drop-off was also a big improvement on Expedia and Booking.com’s respective 67% and 63% declines, possibly because they rely more on out-of-favor business travel and traditional hotels.

Airbnb’s feeling surprisingly positive about the future too: the company’s preparing for a big travel rebound even if it can’t say exactly when it’ll happenand investors – impressed by its can-do attitude – sent its stock higher.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: If in doubt, invest fancy.
That same expectation might be one of the reasons global hotel and leisure stocks hit all-time highs last week. Cue Soho House, which is reportedly polishing its finest monocle and reviving plans to make its stock market debut. The private members’ club reckons investors’ appetite for leisure stocks could bump its value to $3 billion – up from the $2 billion it was on just last year.

Zooming out: Food delivery’s running out of road. 
It’s a different post-pandemic story for DoorDash, whose shares dropped late last week after the food delivery service reported better-than-expected sales. That might be because investors are wary that its worst enemy – dining out, shudder – might make a comeback. Then again, the fact more and more regions are capping the fees it can charge restaurants probably didn’t help much, nor did the benefits it’s now being told to pay its drivers – both of which could hurt its bottom line.

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2. Analyst Take

Ray Dalio’s “Bubble Indicator” Is Sounding The Alarm

What’s Going On Here?

With all this talk about market bubbles lately, it can be hard to know who to listen to.

But if there’s one person you can trust, it’s legendary investor Ray Dalio – arguably one of the foremost experts on the subject.

See, Ray Dalio’s designed his very own “bubble indicator”, which relies on six questions to measure whether the stock market – and individual sectors within it – are in a bubble.

How high stock prices are relative to fundamental measures of value, for example, or how many new buyers have entered the market lately.

And if you do the math and look closely at this indicator, you’ll see a couple of major warning signs for US stocks and high-flying emerging technology stocks.

So that’s today’s Insight: what alarms the bubble indicator is sounding for the US stock market and sectors within it, and how to protect yourself from a crash.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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The Renewable Normal

The Renewable Normal

What’s Going On Here?

Now this is something we could get used to: new analysis by Morgan Stanley showed US sustainable funds outperformed traditional funds last year.

What Does This Mean?

Investing in doing good is more popular than ever, with investors pouring $21 billion into US sustainable funds – those focused on environment, social, and governance (ESG) factors – last quarter alone. That’s more than double the previous quarterly record set in 2019. And it doesn’t look like it’s at the expense of big gains either: Morgan Stanley’s study of 3,000 US sustainable equity funds showed they outperformed their traditional rivals by 4% in 2020 (tweet this). They suffered lower drops in aggregate during market downturns too, suggesting they were safer investments in 2020 – and since all the above findings held true across a longer timeframe, they potentially still are.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Sustainable funds are green, not black and white.
Thing is, it’s hard to say for sure what’s driving the performance of these funds. Morgan Stanley’s study found that sustainable funds on average held more growth stocks – think fast-growing tech companies – than their non-ESG peers. And given that those stocks have done well over the last years, it could be that they’re more responsible for the outperformance than the whole “sustainability” thing is.

The bigger picture: Sustainable investing has room to grow in the States.
Sustainable investing might’ve reached new heights in the US, but the country’s still a long way behind Europe. European sustainable funds were managing $1 trillion by the end of last year, compared to $180 billion in the US and just $40 billion in Asia. Still, American funds might be about to get another boost: the country’s new green-minded president is planning to lift curbs on the country’s pension funds from investing based on ESG factors.

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💬 Quote of the day

“To imagine the unimaginable is the highest use of the imagination.”

– Cynthia Ozick (an American short story writer, novelist, and essayist)
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💥 The 2020s: Boom Or Bust?: 1pm UK Time, March 2nd
💪 The Power Of Thematic Investing: 6pm UK Time, March 2nd
🌍 Investing In Biodiversity: 6pm UK Time, March 3rd
💆‍♀️ The Investor Mindset: 1pm New York Time, March 5th
👣 Invest Your Money, Save The Planet: 6pm UK Time. March 9th
📲 What’s Next For Tech: 6pm UK Time, March 10th
🏦 The Next Decade in Banking: 6pm UK Time, March 11th
🕶 Investing in Virtual Reality & 5G: 6pm New York Time, March 16th

📚 What we're reading

  • How to capitalize wokeness (Futuress)
  • Vaccination day is a day to get all dressed up (Mel)
  • Mailchimp or malechimp? (The Verge)
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