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The enormous impact of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill...
March 08, 2021 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

Radius

Good morning. This is one of those intros you are going to want to read, because today we are launching one of the coolest projects in the history of Morning Brew.

Think March Madness, but for business: a tournament to determine the Greatest Product of All Time, aka the "GPOAT." We’ll explain how to play further down in the newsletter, but just to get you excited we’ll reveal the top seeds of the tournament up here: Microsoft Windows, the iPhone, Coca-Cola, and Google Search.

MARKETS YTD PERFORMANCE

NASDAQ

12,920.15

+ 0.25%

S&P

3,841.94

+ 2.29%

DOW

31,496.30

+ 2.91%

GOLD

1,703.60

- 10.41%

10-YR

1.593%

+ 67.40 bps

OIL

67.23

+ 38.85%

*As of market close. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Energy: Oil prices shot up after Saudi Arabia said that key energy facilities were targeted by a drone and a missile Sunday. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are backed by Saudi Arabia’s nemesis, Iran, claimed responsibility.
  • Covid: More good news. US hospital numbers are declining across all regions, and Dr. Fauci said vaccine supply will be “dramatically increased” in the next few weeks. The US is now administering more than 2 million vaccine doses per day. 
  • Markets: As you can see from our year-to-date figures above, the major stock indexes are just barely in the green for 2020. Inflation worries have put the brakes on the post-election rally. 

ECONOMY

A Cheesecake Factory-Sized Stimulus Bill

larry david gif

Giphy / HBO

For the second straight March, the Senate passed an enormous bill aimed at providing relief to Americans suffering financially from the coronavirus pandemic. This one, introduced by President Biden before he took office, amounts to $1.9 trillion.

  • This bill wasn’t quite the bipartisan effort Biden had originally hoped for. It squeaked through the Senate with a 50–49 vote, with every Democrat voting in favor and every Republican giving it the thumbs down. 

Quick note on process: The House originally passed the stimulus bill, then the Senate tweaked it and passed its own version this weekend. Now, the House will vote on the Senate version (likely tomorrow) before it heads to Biden’s desk for his signature. 

What’s inside the bill?

  • $1,400 stimulus checks: Individuals earning up to $75,000 and couples making up to $150,000 qualify for the entire amount. It phases out at $80k for individuals and $160k for couples.
  • More unemployment benefits: The government is tacking on $300/week to existing benefits through early September.
  • Child tax credit: The bill expands the child tax credit from $2,000 per child to $3,000.
  • Other highlights: $160 billion for vaccine and Covid testing programs, $360 billion for state, local, and territorial governments, and $170 billion for school reopening efforts.

Zoom out: Notice we haven’t written the word “companies” yet. Much of the aid in the bill is directed toward low- and middle-income families rather than businesses; the WaPo calls it “one of the most generous expansions of aid to the poor in recent history.” Economists at Columbia University's Center on Poverty and Social Policy calculate this bill will reduce the number of Americans living in poverty by about a third. 

What the politicians are saying

Dems are psyched, declaring they delivered on their promise to send more stimulus checks to people. Republicans pointed to improving economic data to argue the bill was too fast, too furious. “This isn’t a pandemic rescue package. It’s a parade of left-wing pet projects that they are ramming through during a pandemic,” said Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. 

Bottom line: Workers and families will have received $2.2 trillion from all of the coronavirus stimulus measures, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

        

ENTERTAINMENT

A Wild Evening with Harry, Meghan, and Oprah

Harry and Meghan interview

CBS

Three people so famous they don't require last names—Oprah, Harry, and Meghan—sat down for a blockbuster interview last night.

Everything about it was big. The licensing fees, for instance: CBS paid about $8 million to Oprah’s production company just to broadcast the interview, per the LA Times. And the network was seeking $325k for a 30-second ad spot, about double the normal rate for that time slot. 

  • The revelations, too, were big. Meghan told Oprah that her life as a British royal was so suffocating that she contemplated suicide.

Zoom out: Having stepped back from their official royal duties, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are transitioning to a new life as celebrity business moguls. So far, they’ve mostly followed the traditional playbook:

  • Deal with Netflix: Last September, they announced a content deal with the streamer worth a reported $100 million.
  • Deal with Spotify: Then in December, they said they’ll make exclusive podcasts under their Archewell Audio banner.
  • Venture capital: Meghan made her first startup investment in Clevr Blends, which makes instant oat-milk lattes.
  • SPAC: Just kidding, but...it’s only a matter of time, right? 

Bottom line: With book deals, fashion collabs, and speaking gigs on the horizon, Harry and Meghan could soon become a billion-dollar brand, Brand Finance CEO David Haigh told WWD.

        

CRYPTO

How Much Would You Pay For This?

Jack Dorsey's first ever tweet

Twitter

If your answer was, “absolutely nothing, it’s just a tweet,” then you probably haven’t been following the recent NFT craze. 

  • That tweet, the first one ever sent on Twitter, is currently up for sale by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey.
  • The high bid at the time of writing? $2.5 million.

A quick NFT refresher

NFTs (non-fungible tokens) are unique, verifiable digital assets that can represent a GIF, image, video, music album, and more. Anything that exists online can be purchased as an NFT, theoretically. 

Tweets fall under this umbrella and have already gained traction as popular digital collector’s items. So it’s not entirely unsurprising that the OG tweet would fetch a small fortune. 

Bottom line: Dorsey’s tweet will remain on Twitter and will be free to look at. Seriously, it’s right here. But once bidding comes to a close, only one person will be the “owner” of it. If that sounds crazy to you, someone paid $6.6 million for a 10-second video at a Christie’s auction last week.  

        

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GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

Microsoft Redmond campus

CoolcaesarBuilding92microsoftCC BY-SA 4.0

Quote: “This is an active threat still developing and we urge network operators to take it very seriously.”

A White House official warned we’re not out of the woods yet following a massive hack of Microsoft’s Outlook email program that compromised more than 20,000 US organizations, reports Reuters. Microsoft, which applied an emergency software patch last Tuesday, has blamed China for the hack. 

Stat: 434 books about climate change were published in the US in 2020, up from just 19 in 2010, according to NPD Group. 

Read: Speaking of climate change books...here’s a review of one that discusses tech’s role in the climate crisis. (The Guardian)

        

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Earnings: A grab bag of names (Stitch Fix, Oracle, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Ulta Beauty) all report earnings this week. Bumble will also drop its quarterly financials for the first time as a public company. 

“The Quad”: President Biden is expected to hold the first-ever quadrilateral summit with Japan, India, and Australia in a show of geopolitical force to counter China’s growing influence.

Some big anniversaries on Thursday: 

  • It marks 1 year since the WHO declared Covid-19 a global pandemic. Can’t decide whether this year went by super quickly or very, very slowly…
  • Thursday also marks 10 years since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster in Japan following an earthquake and a tsunami.

Everything else:

  • Today is International Women’s Day. 
  • The America’s Cup sailing race begins on Wednesday. First held in 1851, it’s the oldest international sports competition in existance.
  • Sunday is Pi Day and the Grammys.
        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • NY Governor Andrew Cuomo said he wouldn't resign following multiple allegations of sexual harassment and calls from members of his own party to step down.
  • Chamath Palihapitiya, billionaire investor and SPAC pioneer, confirmed he sold $213 million worth of shares in Virgin Galactic, which he helped take public in 2019.
  • GE is close to striking a deal worth more than $30 billion to combine its aircraft leasing unit with Ireland’s AerCap, reports the WSJ.
  • British students are returning to school today for the first time in two months.
  • The global shipping industry right now is, in a word, chaotic.
  • MacKenzie Scott, the billionaire philanthropist and ex-wife of Jeff Bezos, has married a Seattle science teacher who has pledged to help donate most of their wealth to charity.

BREW'S BETS

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Dive back into the week:

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BRACKET CHALLENGE

What Is the Greatest Product of All Time?

Greatest product of all time logo

Windows revolutionized personal computing. Google Maps has saved us the embarrassment of asking random people for directions. Bud Light makes you drunk and have to pee a lot. Some products truly are great.

But...which product is the greatest? We’re about to find out. Over the next two weeks, Morning Brew readers will have the opportunity to select the Greatest Product of All Time (GPOAT). 

How it works

We’ll start with 64 products, separated into four different “regions” of 16 products. Each region has a #1 seed all the way down to a #16 seed. Over the course of the tournament, products will “play” each other in head-to-head matchups until we crown the GPOAT.

How does a product advance through the bracket? We’ll hold a series of polls on our Twitter account. The product with more votes when the polls close will advance to the next round.

How you can play: The first round of voting starts on Thursday morning. In the meantime, you can check out the entire field and our regional previews here.

GAMES

International Women's Day Trivia

Women hold the majority of national legislative seats in just three countries around the world. Can you name them? 

Here are their first letters: C, R, and U

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ANSWER

Cuba, Rwanda, and United Arab Emirates 

              

Written by Neal Freyman and Toby Howell

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