Good morning. We are now down to just eight products remaining in the Greatest Product of All Time tournament. Interestingly, they are all #1 or #2 seeds: Microsoft Windows, Google Search, Google Maps, Netflix, iPhone, Lego, Coca-Cola, and YouTube. Yes, air fryer’s Cinderella run has come to an end.

• Side note: Google owns three products in the Elite Eight. They’re worth $1.4 trillion...checks out.

Tune back in tomorrow, when we’ll vote to decide the Final Four.

ECONOMY

The Economy Is Getting “Turned Up”

That’s not us trying to impress our middle school readers—it’s a direct quote from the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy statement yesterday.  

As the US economy continues to rebound from its Covid-induced recession, the Fed projects GDP will grow 6.5% this year, a big jump from its previous estimate of 4.2% in December. 

But despite the bullish predictions, the central bank said it wouldn’t change its plans to a) leave interest rates near-zero through 2023 and b) buy $120 billion/month of bonds to stimulate the economy.

Setting the scene

Given the current market environment, Fed Chair Jerome Powell needed to walk a rhetorical tightrope across the Grand Canyon yesterday. Here’s why:

• If the Fed said that economic conditions don’t look better, well...that’s bad.
• If the Fed said things do look better, then it’s increasingly hard to justify its current strategy of ultra-loose monetary policy, which is when the Fed uses its tools (like lowering interest rates) to juice the economy when it’s in the dumps.

Investors have been spooked by the possibility that the Fed will wind down its economic juicing measures to protect against what happens when you pour too much juice: inflation. Inflation has replaced Covid-19 as the No. 1 risk for the market, according to a survey of portfolio managers. 

• Powell is not one of them. “There was a time when inflation went up, it would stay up,” he said at a press conference yesterday. “And that time is not now. That hasn’t been the case for some decades.”

Still, we’ve seen inflation fears play out in stock prices. Growth in expensive tech shares has come to a halt or even reversed course due in part to inflation jitters. Meanwhile, “value” plays such as industrials and banks have been gaining.  

• This month, the tech-focused Nasdaq has dropped more than 2%, while the less-tech-focused Dow is up nearly 5%. 

Bottom line: Markets reacted positively to the Fed’s statement, which means Powell’s tightrope stroll is going just fine.

ENERGY

The World Is Getting Less Gassy

Ever since the Model T rolled off production lines, gasoline has been the primary fuel source to get from Point A to Point B. But as 17th century tulip investors and Uggs owners know, not all trends last forever. 

Yesterday the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that global gasoline consumption has hit its peak and won’t return to pre-pandemic levels...ever. 

The report isn’t exactly a surprise. Drops in travel related to Covid-19 put a pandemic-sized dent in gas consumption. But when you also factor in increasingly fuel-efficient cars and greater adoption of electric vehicles, it makes sense that gasoline’s decline is all gas and no brakes. 

One important note: The IEA does see a full recovery for global crude oil demand, which is used for everything from jet fuel to electricity generation—not just for gasoline. 

Bottom line: The world still very much relies on crude oil, but according to the IEA report, the rate at which oil-thirsty nations consume black gold is slowing. 

E-COMMERCE

Snap Tries on Fit Analytics

Yesterday, Snap did some online shopping and acquired a company that helps people do online shopping. 

• The company: Berlin-based Fit Analytics uses machine learning and customer-provided info to help shoppers find the right clothing size when ordering online.  

Snap hasn’t spoken about how it plans to integrate Fit Analytics’s tech into its app (if it plans to at all), but TechCrunch outlined what a conceivable use case could look like: “Come for the AR filter to see how you look in a Ralph Lauren sweater, and then…shop the look.”

• It’s a timely acquisition given the upcoming changes Apple is making to its privacy policies, which will make it harder for companies like Snap to track ad performance. 
• Adding Fit Analytics opens the door for Snap to monetize through in-app purchases and reduce its reliance on ad dollars.

Bottom line: A big gap in the online shopping experience has been the inability to “try something on.” Fit Analytics x Snapchat’s augmented reality filters is a powerful one-two punch that tries to address that shortcoming. 

SPONSORED BY THE MOTLEY FOOL

Your Roommate’s Boyfriend May Not Know What He’s Talking About

Everyone has an opinion on bitcoin these days. Your dad. Your boss. And yes, your roommate’s boyfriend Dave. (Stop talking about bitcoin, Dave.)

We got curious about whether or not to invest in bitcoin, but with all these opinions floating around, we knew we needed to seek out some expert advice.

So we hit up our pals at The Motley Fool.

Many cups of coffee and multiple notepads later, our noggins were full of bitcoin-investing know-how. But readers, we couldn’t keep this expertise to ourselves—nope, we wrote up an article about it.

If you’re wondering whether or not to wade into the bitcoin hype, this piece is perfect for you. We lay out the bitcoin basics, walk you through what bitcoin’s future could look like, and explain what that means for your portfolio.

Shut Dave up and read the real bitcoin knowledge here.

TOURISM

Keep This in Mind When Your Second Vaccine Poke Hits

As of today, Iceland is one of the first countries in the world to reopen to tourists—but with some asterisks. 

• Only those who can show proof of full vaccination with a European Medicines Agency-approved shot will be allowed glimpses of Iceland’s insanely cute shaggy horses.

Previously, EU citizens could visit Iceland without quarantining, but now the country is opening up to those outside the bloc’s free-travel zone known as the Schengen area. That includes Americans and Brits, who accounted for 41% of all hotel stays in Iceland in 2019.

Zoom out: Even with the Ts and Cs, this is a big deal for a country where tourism became one of the primary economic drivers over the past decade. The sector suffered a 75% drop last year due to...well, you know. 

GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

Stat: To stay hydrated, Peloton CEO John Foley drinks 40 sips of water from his hands in his upstairs bathroom every morning until he feels like he’s going to throw up. 

Quote: "There's a serious imbalance in supply and demand of chips in the IT sector globally."

Speaking at his company’s annual shareholders meeting, Samsung Co-CEO Koh Dong-jin warned that the global chip shortage will ding business performance. Koh said that Samsung may even skip the introduction of its new Galaxy Note phone because of the lack of chips.

Read: Why Clubhouse will fail. (Shaan Puri on Twitter)

ADVERTISING

From the Benedict Arnold Bureau: Endorsers Switch Sides

Yesterday, Intel debuted a series of ads featuring actor Justin Long, who back in the late 2000s starred in Apple commercials as the hip Mac compared to comedian John Hodgman’s un-hip PC. 

• The backstory: Long is the latest pawn in Intel and Apple’s chip chess match. In November, Apple said it was going in-house for chips, ending a 15-year business relationship with Intel—and featured Hodgman in the announcement. 

Long isn’t the only celebrity making the leap to a former partner’s direct competitor. Basketball star LeBron James inked a deal with PepsiCo after working with Coca-Cola since he was 18 years old. 

LeBron will be the face of Pepsi’s new morning energy drink, plus he'll promote some of its other brands and take part in the company’s social justice efforts. 

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Morgan Stanley is offering its wealthy clients access to bitcoin funds, becoming the first major US bank to do so, per CNBC.
• Ford will allow 30,000 employees who have been working from home to keep working from home after the pandemic winds down.
• Katherine Tai was confirmed by the Senate as the US trade representative, becoming the first Asian American and woman of color to hold the position.
• Finally: The “Snyder Cut” of Justice League hits HBO Max today.
• Paper goods chain Paper Source’s bankruptcy blindsided small vendors that relied on it, according to an exclusive report by Retail Brew.

SPONSORED BY THE MOTLEY FOOL

Bit confuzzled ’bout bitcoin? We were too—so we phoned our expert friends at The Motley Fool, who walked us through the bitcoin basics and lent us their advice on whether or not bitcoin should have a place in our portfolio. For a prognosis on bitcoin’s future and what it means to you, read our bitcoin bonanza here.

BREW'S BETS

Attention college students: Do you have a big idea to change the world or know somebody who does? Our friends at OZY have launched the OZY Genius Awards to provide 10 US college students with grants of $10,000 to pursue their genius ideas this summer. Apply today, or nominate the brilliant college student in your life by visiting ozy.com/genius.

Xiaolongbao: How soup dumplings are made and how to correctly eat them.

Marco Logo: Test your knowledge of corporate logos with this fun quiz.

GAMES

Three Headlines and a Lie

This news quiz is trickier than an X-Games halfpipe. Three of the headlines below are real, but one is made up. Can you spot the fake? 

1. "Drivers involved in highway fender bender agree to sell picture of wreck as NFT and split the profits"
2. "First ever sighting of a walrus in Ireland after it is thought to have drifted across Atlantic after falling asleep on iceberg"
3. "Biden says 85% of White House staff still ‘love’ his dog Major after biting incident"
4. "SUV crashes into house in Montgomery; hedgehog involved, unharmed"

ANSWER

We made up the NFT one...could you tell?