Finimize - 🎯 Samsung targets serious profits

Go get 'em, Samsung | CVC goes on vacation |

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for April 8th in 3:12 minutes.

👋 Come find the official Finimize Club on Clubhouse, folks: join us for today’s show at 6pm UK time / 1pm New York time, and let’s have a chat about Tesla’s valuation, shall we? Join the club

Today's big stories

  1. Samsung is projecting a big jump in last quarter’s profit, and the global chip shortage could mean even better days ahead
  2. There are two strategies you can use to make the most of a one-of-a-kind earnings season – Read Now
  3. Private equity firm CVC Capital is looking to buy Japanese conglomerate Toshiba

Smart Money

Smart Money

What’s Going On Here?

Samsung announced on Wednesday that it’s projecting a 44% jump in last quarter’s profit, as a homebound world kitted out their kitchens with unnecessary – but admittedly really cool – gear.

What Does This Mean?

Samsung is all set to report its first-quarter earnings at the end of the month, but clearly it couldn’t contain itself till then: the company revealed that its profit is poised to climb by just as much as analysts are expecting. That surge is probably down to strong sales of smartphones and home appliances, which have offered locked-down customers something to spend their money on in the absence of, y’know, active social lives.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Everyone’s hungry for chips.
Samsung’s investors have good reason to be feeling positive about the company’s future profitability: it’s the world’s biggest maker of memory chips, and that’s a good business to be in nowadays. See, there’s a global shortage of semiconductors because of strong demand for anything electronic, and that’s been driving up their prices since March. And with the shortage expected to last for two more years, they might have a lot higher to rise…

The bigger picture: Are smartphones a dying business? 
The launch of Samsung’s latest smartphone in January boosted its market share too, with the company’s sales representing 23% of the global smartphone market last quarter. That’s up from 16% the quarter before, when arch-rival Apple poached the top spot for the first time in four years. LG Electronics, for its part, seems fed up of being the third wheel in this will-they won’t-they: the manufacturer announced on Monday that it’s quitting the smartphone market altogether to focus on electric vehicle (EV) components. That might be a smart move: the EV market is only just taking off, while fresh data has shown a 10% fall in the global smartphone market last year – the third drop-off in a row (tweet this).

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2. Analyst Take

This Earnings Season Is A One-Of-A-Kind Opportunity

What’s Going On Here?

Investors are always on high alert during company earnings season, but the next one – which kicks off next week – offers a pretty unique opportunity.

Here’s the thing: analysts have a habit of cutting company profit estimates over the course of a quarter. But last quarter, they didn’t just raise them: they raised them by the most in almost 20 years.

US stock prices have risen too, likely as investors “priced in” analysts’ high hopes.

And that means there’s arguably an outsized risk of negative surprises, giving missed forecasts the power to send a stock prices tumbling faster and further than normal.

The opposite is true too: the two worst-performing sectors this year go into this round of updates with stable profit forecasts, and could see their stocks jump if they outperform.

So that’s today’s today’s Insight: which stocks are in a good place, which aren’t, and two strategies you can use to profit from this one-off situation.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Wish You Were Here

Wish You Were Here

What’s Going On Here?

Private equity firm CVC Capital made a $20 billion offer to buy Japanese conglomerate Toshiba on Wednesday, in what would be the country’s biggest leveraged buyout in history.

What Does This Mean?

In a leveraged buyout, a private equity firm – Europe’s CVC, in this case – borrows money to buy a business, typically hoping to improve its operations and sell for a profit later on. And given that global investors see Japanese conglomerates as particularly inefficient, it’s a strategy that could work out well for Toshiba and its shareholders.

Toshiba’s shares surged 18% to a four-year high on the news of CVS’s offer, but it’s fair to say those investors might be getting ahead of themselves. The government has to sign off on any takeover bids made by foreign private equity firms, and considering Toshiba’s in charge of the country’s nuclear power plants, this one’s going to be under even more scrutiny…

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Private equity firms aren’t through with Japan yet.
Private equity firms see Japan as one of the most target-rich markets in the world, and it shows: they’ve announced $15 billion worth of buyout deals focused on Japanese firms in the last twelve months, according to Bloomberg. This Toshiba takeover would be CVC’s second major deal in the country this year alone, after it agreed to buy Shiseido’s personal care business for $1.5 billion in February.

For markets: Welcome to the Land of Rising Activism.
Activist investors have increasingly been flexing their muscles in Japan over the last few years, pushing management teams to make reforms that’ll give shareholders more bang for their buck. That hasn’t gone unnoticed by Toshiba: the company – which was forced to issue $5.3 billion of new shares after a brush with bankruptcy in 2017 – is heavily owned by foreign activist funds, which just won a landmark vote to investigate the company’s management team.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Activism is my rent for living on the planet.”

– Alice Walker (an American novelist, short story writer, poet, and social activist)
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📚 What we're reading

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🌍 Finimize Events

🍷 That’s good juice

Booze is good for many things, not least getting us through lockdown. But turns out those bottles of hooch might make a pretty good investment too. Just ask Novel Wine’s Ben Franks at our Investing in Wine and Whiskey event: you’ll get his hard-won advice on buying and selling the most in-demand liquor, as well as how to look all fancy when you’re drinking (spoiler: it’s all in the pinky).

💵 The Surge In Digital Payments: 6pm UK time, April 8th
🍷 Investing In Wine And Whiskey: 6pm UK time, April 9th
💆 Control Your Emotions, Control Your Trading: 6pm NZ time, April 12th
😎 Making An Impact With Your Capital: 4pm UK time, April 15th
🔥 The Three Most Important Trading Signals: 6pm UK time, April 20th
👩‍🎨 Are NFTs A Digital Bargain Or Bubble?: 2pm UK time, April 21st
💡 Investing In Small-Medium Cap Stocks: 6pm UK time, April 21st
🏡 The Pros and Cons Of REITs And Real Estate: 1pm UK time, April 22nd
📈 How To Inflation-Proof Your Portfolio: 6pm UK time, April 22nd
🚀 Space: The Final Investment Frontier: 6pm UK time, April 27th
💰 Crowdfunding Club: 1pm NYC time, April 28th
🛢 The Energy Sector’s New Direction: 4pm UK time, April 29th
🔪 How To Cut Through The Spin: 6pm UK time, April 29th
👋 Live Q&A With CEO Max Rofagha: 1.30pm UK time, April 30th

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Image credits: Samsung.com Bernard Hermant @bernardhermant - Unsplash | Mak @mak_jp - Unsplash bissig. paseven - Shutterstock

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