guess who's back

Hey! This memo now has 10K+ subscribers. We could sell out an arena (at limited capacity!) It's a nice number, but I care more about its 50%+ open rate, high engagement, and the influence that Trapital has had.

Thank you for reading and being part of it. I'll do my best to make sure it adds value each week.

If you want to help celebrate the milestone, the best thing you can do is spread the word.

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Thank again! Today's memo covers my interview with James Lindsay, Nicki Minaj's release, J. Cole (again), and the return of live events.

new pod: James Lindsay, Rap Snacks CEO

Listen, James has been one of the most requested guests since I started the Trapital Podcast! It was great to have him on.

We talked about how Rap Snacks got distribution in Walmart and why Lil' Baby is a great partner. We also talked about his plans for his new venture BossUp Bank, and the investing advice he gave to Meek Mill.

Tap in on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get podcasts.

Nicki Minaj's Sliding Doors Moments

On Friday, the Young Money rapper released her 2009 mixtape Beam Me Up Scotty on all streaming platforms.

This was a re-release I had expected two years ago on its 10th anniversary, but better late than never. She also released a new single "Seeing Green" with Drake and Lil' Wayne.

One of the best. Nicki is the ideal case study to break down. Her career has had highs, lows, and plenty of sliding doors moments. If I ever teach a course and have to pick a few rappers to cover, I'll take the person who just became an unintentional pink Crocs influencer.

She should be mentioned with Drake, J. Cole, and any other success stories from the blog era. Pink Friday and The Pinkprint were two of the biggest rap albums of the decade. Her guest verse on Kanye West's "Monster" deserves all its praise, but her verse on Beyonce's "Flawless Remix" is right up there too.

But a few years ago she urged her fans, the Barbz, to cyberbully a journalist that critiqued Nicki. That was messed up. Additionally, the release of her album Queen (2018) was overshadowed by her speaking out against Travis Scott's Astroworld sales tactics. And then she canceled her North American concert tour due to low ticket sales (which she denied was the reason, but T-Pain told us how these things work).

A chip on her shoulder. Nicki doesn't take shit from anyone. If she did, she wouldn't reach the heights that she has. But that energy is one of the reasons these incidents happen. Unfortunately, these incidents hit harder because of the double standards she faces as a woman.

When Drake scrapped with Diddy and dislocated his shoulder at DJ Khaled's birthday, it was forgotten about quick. But when Cardi B threw a shoe at Nicki at the Met Gala, it got covered like a tabloid scandal.

The sliding doors moments. Nicki's 2009 - 2014 stretch is unassailable. But there's an alternate world where Nicki's 2015 - 2021 plays out better. If Nicki dropped Queen in its own stretch of time, toured with Drake instead of Future in 2018 (or picked a smaller venue), and the "MotorSport" incident with Cardi B never happened, then the last few years would be looked at more highly.

This next chapter of her career will be fascinating. Last year she gave birth to a baby boy. But in February, she tragically lost her father in a hit-and-run accident. Her upcoming HBO docuseries should be a fascinating look at how both have impacted her career. I hope we learn something new.

Read Nicki's letter to her fans here.

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J. Cole's Album Rollout for The Off-Season

I know. I wrote about Cole last week. But that was before he dropped buckets for the Rwanda Patriots and freestyled over Souls of Mischief "93 Till Infinity" and Mike Jones "Still Tippin." It was also before the documentary, cover on SLAM, and interview with Kevin Durant! The rollout is impressive.

The fight for attention.The Off-Season's first-week sales projection is between 280K - 310K units. For context, it's similar sales number to Lil' Uzi Vert's Eternal Atake and Taylor Swift's release of Fearless (Taylor's Version).

Last week I predicted that it would undersell KOD's 397,000 because Cole's not as popular with casual fans as he was in 2018. My prediction was right, but for the wrong reasons.

The rules have changed. First, Billboard has since stopped counting merch album bundles as ticket sales. 44% of Cole's KOD sales were "pure sales" which was largely driven by merch. The Off-Season, just 13% were pure sales. So to be fair, The Off-Season will be streamed more than KOD was in week one.

Next, The Off-Season is competing against a lot more content than KOD was. Like I said last week, a lot has changed in three years! There are 60,000 songs uploaded per day on Spotify than there were in 2019. That's 50% more than in 2019.

Also, apps like TikTok have grown tremendously in that time. While decision fatigue can draw more attention to established stars like J. Cole, the fragmented landscape is still hard for everyone to compete with.

That's why his rollout was so important. Everyone needs marketing, even the superstars.

Read more about J. Cole in his cover story in SLAM Magazine.

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The Post-Pandemic Return of Live Music

As vaccinations continue, the return of live events is on the horizon. Live events companies and others are making moves to anticipate the return, but what will that return look like?

The live entertainment company opened a new 5,000 capacity venue in Houston, made an exclusive partnership to end plastic water bottles at concerts with canned water startup Liquid Death, and will re-open Irving Plaza in New York.

AEG has launched its sustainability initiative and gears up for a strong slate in 2021 and 2022.

Supply and demand. The industry is banking on the pent-up demand for concerts, and rightfully so. The people have been social distancing for fifteen months. They're ready to get after it.

But a LOT of your favorite artists will hit the road in 2022. Most of them probably have pre-pandemic demand expectations. But will they all get the turnout they desire? The willingness to attend shows may eventually dip.

The next 18 months will be busy. Let's say you attended 5-6 shows per year pre-pandemic. But in 2022, 12 of your favorite musicians make stops in your city. Sure, you may attend 2-3 more shows to make up for it, but will you get to all of them?

If you're like me, your 2022 calendar is already full of weddings that were postponed and recently planned ones. You also want to go on vacation, multiple if possible! There are a lot of people demanding your time. Will you have the energy (and money) to still attend all their shows in the post-pandemic boom?

The world is big. Artists can get strategic about tour dates in different worldwide regions, creative collaborations, and other events to make it work. But the opportunity cost for a fan's time will be higher than ever.

Hear more about the return of live events in this Recode Media podcast interview with Peter Kafka and Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino.

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Coming soon from Trapital

Podcast - I had a great chat with Tracy Chan, Head of Twitch Music. We talked all about artist monetization, the creator economy, and more. Excited for this one to drop.