🚀 The big bitcoin debate

Hot oil burns China | Hot economy burns Europe |

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for June 2nd in 2:56 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a ruby port at Fabrica da Nata in Lisbon, Portugal (22°C/72°F ☀️)

Today's big stories

  1. The price of oil hit its highest level since 2018 on Tuesday, adding to China’s growing list of troubles
  2. After tumbling 40% from record highs, it’s time to revisit bitcoin’s investment case – Read Now
  3. Factory bottlenecks are helping European prices rise at the fastest rate in more than two years

Oil Be Back

Oil Be Back

What’s Going On Here?

It may not be on the run from a remorseless intelligent killing machine – at least, not yet – but resurgent oil prices have become just the latest trouble plaguing China.

What Does This Mean?

After dropping below zero thirteen months back, the price of oil has rapidly recovered: it hit its highest level since 2018 on Tuesday following optimistic forecasts from OPEC+, the influential group of major oil-producing countries and their allies.

OPEC+ reckons the global supply glut caused by the pandemic is nearly gone, and that inventories of stored oil will fall sharply in the second half of the year as restrictions ease and the global economy rebounds. The alliance accordingly greenlit a planned increase in daily oil production starting next month – while downplaying concerns that a potential Iranian return to international oil markets would materially alter supply-and-demand dynamics.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Red alert.
It’s not just oil: higher prices for all sorts of commodities are proving to be a headache for communo-capitalist China and its resource-hungry growth ambitions. As if that wasn’t bad enough, a recent rally in the international value of the country’s currency, the yuan, has made its exports more expensive and therefore less attractive overseas. China’s responded by resorting to measures it last used during the global financial crisis, telling local banks they need to hold more foreign currencies in reserve. Making it harder to buy the yuan using such currencies should help stem its rise.

Zooming out: Optimism is contagious.
It’s not just OPEC+: on Tuesday, the influential OECD raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 4.2% to 5.8%. Subsequent growth of 4.4% in 2022 would bring most of the world’s economies back up to pre-pandemic levels, with the US and a freshly philoprogenitive China expected to be setting new records by the time 2023 rolls around (tweet this).

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2. Analyst Take

The Big Bitcoin Debate

Bitcoin’s price dropped dramatically last month, potentially creating an opportunity. But before taking advantage of it, you’ll probably want to reexamine your investment thesis.

One of the best ways to do that is to wrestle with the bear case.

After all, if you’re going to buy or hold bitcoin, you should have good answers to the four major arguments for why it isn’t a good investment.

So that’s today’s Insight: the case against investing in bitcoin – and what might convince an investor that it doesn’t stop the cryptocurrency from being an attractive bet.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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High Corkage

High Corkage

What’s Going On Here?

Eurozone inflation rose to its most rapid rate since late 2018 last month, with factory bottlenecks partly to blame for prices popping across the continent.

What Does This Mean?

The prices of goods and services in Europe’s 19 solely euro-spending states increased by a higher-than-expected 2% in May compared to a year before. And while rising energy prices had a big hand in that, the region’s factories may be playing an even more significant part.

Manufacturers are struggling to keep up with rising demand as European economies reopen: inventories of finished goods fell at the fastest rate since 2009 last month. But eurozone factories took advantage of this short supply to pass on higher input costs to customers: according to one survey, May saw them hike their prices by the most in more than 18 years.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Inflation needs to chill.
This is the first time inflation has breached the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) just-under-2% target since October 2018. That’s likely to fuel fears among some investors that the ECB will be forced to unwind pandemic-induced economic support measures – such as ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing – sooner than expected. The central bank, however, is following its US counterpart in claiming that this uptick in inflation is only temporary.

The bigger picture: Germans are industrious.
Activity is increasing at European factories as they attempt to get back up to speed, with a key measure of manufacturing growth hitting an all-time record in May. That bodes well for industrial powerhouses such as Germany – and according to new data out Tuesday, German unemployment decreased by more than expected last month. While the rate remains higher than it was pre-pandemic, it’s still lower than anywhere else in Europe.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Middle age is when your broad mind and narrow waist begin to change places.”

– E. Joseph Cossman (an American inventor, businessman, entrepreneur, and author)
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🌏 Finimize Live Events

☕️ Buy your next brunch with crypto

On June 3rd, we’re discussing how mainstream cryptocurrency can truly become. Hear from Benjamin Whitby, a crypto compliance and regulatory specialist, about the possibilities and pitfalls of widespread cryptocurrency payments.

🇨🇳 How To Profit From Chinese Innovation: 5pm UK time, June 1st
🚗 How To Buy Coffee And Cars With Crypto: 4pm UK time, June 3rd
🤔 How To Understand Fundamental Analysis: 5pm UK time, June 8th
😎 How To Make Your Own Investing Rules: 5pm UK time, June 9th\
🛒 How To Not Get Lost In Supermarket Stocks: 6pm UK time, June 10th
💰 How To Get Yield From Crypto: 12pm NYC time, June 14th
💡 How To Build A Robust Portfolio: 5pm UK time, June 15th
💵 How To Bet On The Rise Of Open Banking Payments: 1pm UK time, June 16th
🤑 How To Earn A Passive Income From Crypto: 12pm NYC time, June 24th
💄 How To Give Your Portfolio A Beauty Makeover: 6pm UK time, June 30th

🎯 On our radar

  1. How wannabe influencers are getting hustled. The app that promises prowess – for a price.
  2. Casinos are reopening. Here’s a crash course in the math behind your favorite games.
  3. Hasta la vista, baby. How artificial superintelligence could end human civilization.
  4. One park ranger’s age-old discovery. New fossils paint a picture of life ten million years ago.
  5. Vaccine tourism is here. Wealthy travelers head Stateside to nail down a jab.
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