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Today's big stories

The Chinese government is cracking down on Didi, just days after the Chinese ride hailing giant made its stock market debut
This obscure indicator has the best track record of predicting stock market returns, and it’s urgently trying to tell you something – Read Now
Even more companies have been expressing an interest in buying UK supermarket chain Morrisons

Public Enemy #1

What’s Going On Here?

Didi is back in the Chinese government’s crosshairs, just days after the ride-hailing app pulled off one of the biggest US initial public offerings (IPOs) of the past decade.

What Does This Mean?

The Chinese government – which has had run-ins with Didi before – ordered the country’s app stores to remove the ride-hailing giant over the weekend (tweet this). It says it’s a matter of national security: Didi has access to hundreds of millions of Chinese customers’ personal information, while counting major international companies (like Uber) among its shareholders.

It’s not the only one: other US-listed Chinese companies – including online recruitment company Kanzhun and truck-hailing firm Full Truck Alliance – were caught up in the crackdown too. And the message to everyone else was loud, if not necessarily clear: any company needs to make sure customer data is “secure” – every bit as vague as it sounds – before looking to raise money or find investors abroad.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Cue the ripple effects.
This was the next episode in a long-running series of crackdowns on Chinese tech firms, so the news sent all their stocks tumbling on Monday – even leading to an almost 4% drop for Tencent. And since Didi is one of the biggest investments in SoftBank’s portfolio, the Japanese conglomerate saw its shares fall more than 5% too.

The bigger picture: So much for easy money.
Chinese firms that trade on US exchanges also now have to let American authorities audit their accounts, or else risk being delisted. But with China having banned them from doing just that, it might only be a matter of time before the US makes good on its threats. That’s probably worrying the 30-plus Chinese firms that raised a record $12.4 billion on the New York Stock Exchange in the first half of this year alone – not to mention all the other would-be stock market debutants that want their own stateside cash injection.

You might also like: How to pick winning tech stocks.

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2. Analyst Take

This Predictor Of Stock Returns Is Trying To Tell You Something

What’s Going On Here?

When it comes to forecasting stock returns, there are more than a dozen models competing for the title of “world’s best predictor”.

But one obscure choice is head and shoulders above the rest.

In fact, it historically predicted the S&P 500’s future 10-year returns better than any other valuation metric – think price-to-earnings ratio, CAPE, and the Fed model, to name a few.

And… well, it’s flashing a serious warning sign.

So that’s today’s Insight: what the single-best predictor of future stock market returns is trying to tell you.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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