Vox Sentences - Why can't we predict tornadoes? 🌪️

Eight minutes and 24 seconds. That’s the average lead time for a tornado warning, and most of those warnings are false alarms. Why can’t we forecast something as massive — and dangerous — as a tornado?

Turns out, predicting tornadoes is one of the most frustrating problems in meteorology. 

While scientists have gotten better at forecasting other severe weather, like hurricanes, accurate tornado predictions remain elusive. Tornadoes are extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the atmosphere, and scientists still don’t know exactly what makes one happen.

On this week’s Unexplainable episode, we talk to scientists who chase twisters to discover their secrets. 

—Lauren Katz and the Unexplainable team

A stovepipe tornado cuts its way through a field in Minneola, Kansas, in 2016. Credit: Jason Weingart/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

• Tornado warning lead times in the US have been getting worse. In 2011, the average lead was just around 13 minutes. Between 2012 and 2020, the Washington Post has reported, that number dropped to 8.4 minutes.
  
  
• This Vox video explains why the US’s Tornado Alley has more tornadoes than anywhere else in the world. (The US gets more than 1,000 twisters per year, on average. The runner-up, Canada, records around 100.)
  
  
• The big thunderstorms that produce most tornadoes are called supercells — and their clouds are epic (as is this photo gallery).
  
  
• Good news: Unlike tornado forecasts, hurricane forecasts have recently improved. 

A microburst in the Las Vegas area this summer. Credit: Tyler Leavitt

Photographer Tyler Leavitt captured this incredible microburst in the Las Vegas area last week. Microbursts — short, extremely powerful storms that often cause extensive damage — happen when air sinks, causing the middle of the storm to head toward the ground. 

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