Schroder's cat

Everything is relative, including Dennis Schroder's quality in comparison to his contract.

Aug 11

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Cats in the Garden, Mao Yi

Famously, the Lakers offered Dennis Schroder a 4-year, $80 million extension last season. Schroder was an important member of the team, seen as perhaps the third best offensive player on a title contending squad. Schroder has been on good teams in the past; he had never had anything like this role on a team anywhere close to this good.

Schroder turned down the extension to chase more money in free agency. Lots of teams had cap space this summer, after all, and if Schroder were to be coming off of two real strong seasons for winning teams — 2019-20 for OKC, 2020-21 for the Lakers, maybe with a championship? — he could definitely earn $25 million per year or so.

And he still could have, even as he flamed out with the Lakers and the Lakers flamed out of the playoffs. It takes just one team, after all. But that one team didn’t materialize, perhaps turned off by how Schroder finished the season, perhaps chastened by the Lakers’ apparent lack of interest in bringing Schroder back. (Interesting thought exercise: would L.A. have tried to bring Schroder back a little more vigorously had they done the rumored Buddy Hield deal instead of the surprise Russell Westbrook deal? Or were they just … done?) The Knicks’ cap space went to Evan Fournier and their incumbent players. The Bulls spent on Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan. The Mavericks don’t appear to have been seriously interested in Schroder. The Pelicans turned to Devontae’ Graham.

The dance ended and Schroder was on the bench.

On Tuesday, Schroder announced he has signed with the Celtics. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports the deal is a 1-year contract for $5.9 million. Keith Smith reports that Schroder was not guaranteed a starting role.

The easy knife twist is that Schroder’s misguided belief in his own market power cost him $74 million. That’s not quite right. Schroder bet on himself heading into 2021 free agency and lost. He’s betting on himself again. We don’t know how that will pay off in a year when he’s again a free agent. He’s playing for a team that should be pretty good — not necessarily a contender, but a solid playoff contender.

Yes, Boston was a play-in team a year ago. But the Celtics were savaged by COVID-19 and the circumstances of the COVID-19 season more than most other teams. Jayson Tatum could make another leap after a summer playing alongside Kevin Durant. Jaylen Brown is a really, really excellent player. Those two alone make you dangerous. Add in a new sideline voice in Ime Udoka, the continued energy of Marcus Smart, the reintroduction of a rested Al Horford and some frisky youngsters and it’s a solid squad that could easily be in that 4-5-6 conversation, maybe better depending on how the Sixers and Heat come in. Tatum and Brown are that good.

Schroder might start, or he might be a sixth man like he was behind Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander two seasons ago. He finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting that season, by the way. It was a great role for him — the shooting was flukey, and he spent a lot of time on the court with both CP3 (a god) and SGA (a gravitational force of sorts). It’ll be different sharing the court with Smart and, say, Payton Pritchard or Aaron Nesmith. But it’s a role we’ve seen work for Schroder.

If the Celtics are good (better than plausible) and if Schroder has a solid season, he’ll be able to make some money as a 28-year-old point guard when he hits free agency again next summer. Will he make $20 million a year? No, that’s highly unlikely. He blew some portion of the bag. But a good season here can shrink the gap, make up some of the losses. And hell, it’s not like there’s an alternative. We don’t do time machines here. Worry about a past mistake or try to build a new success? Rejecting the Lakers’ extension offer turns out to have been a mistake. This smaller, shorter deal with the Celtics could be a real success, even if it will never undo the prior mistake.

This is a huge win for the Celtics, who get a player whose on-court value figures to far outstrip the salary cost. Boston is back in transition after the Kemba Walker gambit didn’t pay off. (And what salt in the wound to see Kemba on a song of a deal against the rival Knicks, who tread the same playoff seed waters as the C’s.) The Celtics weren’t able to add veteran long-term pieces around Tatum and Brown this offseason, apparently holding their powder in case Bradley Beal doesn’t actually sign an extension or Damian Lillard enters the trade market or simply because nothing attractive presented itself to new GM Brad Stevens.

In another transition year, while Tatum and Brown continue to grow, leveraging a free agent’s bad beat into a below-market 1-year deal is really smart, especially at a position of need.

Schroder could have been a team’s big mistake this summer. Instead, the mistake is his and the victory is Boston’s. For Schroder’s sake, let’s hope it’s a success and he rebounds the next time he’s on the market in 11 months.

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